Quantifying the relative roles of climate change and human activities in vegetation change is essential for sustainable restoration planning, yet the impacts of extreme climate events and their time-lagged effects are often overlooked, biasing assessments of climatic controls. Here, we developed an integrated pattern–process–attribution framework to evaluate vegetation dynamics across China’s four major climatic zones using a long-term, high-resolution kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) dataset for 2000–2024. Theil–Sen trend estimation and the coefficient of variation (CV) were used to characterize long-term changes and interannual stability. Partial correlation analysis was applied to isolate the independent associations between kNDVI and extreme climate indices while controlling for background mean temperature and precipitation, and lagged correlation analysis with 0–3-month lags was used to quantify delayed responses. A regression-based residual attribution was further used to decompose observed kNDVI changes into a climate-driven component and a human-activity-related component (approximated by the residual not explained by temperature and precipitation). Results show widespread greening with pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with the most extensive improvement in the Tropical and Subtropical Humid Region and the Temperate Humid and Semi-humid Region. Vegetation stability exhibits a southeast–northwest contrast, and the highest variability occurs in the Temperate Arid and Semi-arid Region and the western Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Responses to climate extremes are region-dependent and generally short-lagged (mean 0.35–1.05 months), with drought constraints dominating in arid regions and thermal extremes (TXx) most relevant on the plateau. Nationally, human activities contribute 70.8% of vegetation change, exceeding the climate-driven contribution (29.2%).

Amid accelerating global warming, surface albedo is a key indicator and regulator of how Earth’s surface reflects solar radiation, directly affecting the planetary radiation balance and climate. In this paper, we combined MODIS shortwave albedo (MCD43A3, 500 m), MODIS NDVI (MOD13A3, 1 km; NDVI = normalized difference vegetation index) and 1-km gridded meteorological data to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of surface albedo across China during 2001–2020 at a gridded scale. Temporal trends were quantified with the Theil–Sen slope and the Mann–Kendall test, and the seasonal contributions of NDVI, air temperature, and precipitation were assessed with a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. China’s mean annual shortwave albedo was 0.186 and showed a significant decline. Attribution indicates NDVI is the dominant driver (~48% of total change), followed by temperature (~27%) and precipitation (~25%). Seasonally, NDVI explains ~43.94–52.02% of the variation, ~26.81–28.07% of the temperature, and ~21.17–28.57% of the precipitation. Clear spatial patterns emerge. In high-latitude and high-elevation snow-dominated regions, albedo tends to decrease with warmer conditions and increase with greater precipitation. In much of eastern China, albedo is generally positively associated with temperature and negatively with precipitation. NDVI—reflecting vegetation greenness and canopy structure—captures the effects of vegetation greening, canopy densification, and land-cover change that reduce surface reflectivity by enhancing shortwave absorption. Temperature and precipitation affect albedo primarily by regulating vegetation growth. This study goes beyond correlation mapping by combining robust trend detection (Theil–Sen + MK) with GTWR to resolve seasonally varying, non-stationary controls on albedo at 1-km over 20 years. By explicitly separating snow-covered and snow-free conditions, we quantify how NDVI, temperature, and precipitation contributions shift across climate zones and seasons, providing a reproducible, national-scale attribution that can inform ecosystem restoration and land-surface radiative management.