This study aimed to evaluate the comparative predictive efficacy of the SARIMA statistical model and the Prophet machine learning model for forecasting monthly traffic accidents across the 24 provinces of Ecuador, addressing a critical research gap in model selection for geographically and socioeconomically heterogeneous regions. By integrating classical time series modeling with algorithmic decomposition techniques, the research sought to determine whether a universally superior model exists or if predictive performance is inherently context-dependent. Monthly accident data from January 2013 to June 2025 were analyzed using a rolling-window evaluation framework. Model accuracy was assessed through Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metrics to ensure consistency and comparability across provinces. The results revealed a global tie, with 12 provinces favoring SARIMA and 12 favoring Prophet, indicating the absence of a single dominant model. However, regional patterns of superiority emerged: Prophet achieved exceptional precision in coastal and urban provinces with stationary and high-volume time series—such as Guayas, which recorded the lowest MAPE (4.91%)—while SARIMA outperformed Prophet in the Andean highlands, particularly in non-stationary, medium-to-high-volume provinces such as Tungurahua (MAPE 6.07%) and Pichincha (MAPE 13.38%). Computational instability in MAPE was noted for provinces with extremely low accident counts (e.g., Galápagos, Carchi), though RMSE values remained low, indicating a metric rather than model limitation. Overall, the findings invalidate the notion of a universally optimal model and underscore the necessity of adopting adaptive, region-specific modeling frameworks that account for local geographic, demographic, and structural factors in predictive road safety analytics.

This study aimed to evaluate the comparative predictive efficacy of the SARIMA statistical model and the Prophet machine learning model for forecasting monthly traffic accidents across the 24 provinces of Ecuador, addressing a critical research gap in model selection for geographically and socioeconomically heterogeneous regions. By integrating classical time series modeling with algorithmic decomposition techniques, the research sought to determine whether a universally superior model exists or if predictive performance is inherently context-dependent. Monthly accident data from January 2013 to June 2025 were analyzed using a rolling-window evaluation framework. Model accuracy was assessed through Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metrics to ensure consistency and comparability across provinces. Results revealed a global tie, with 12 provinces favoring SARIMA and 12 favoring Prophet, indicating the absence of a single dominant model. However, regional patterns of superiority emerged: Prophet achieved exceptional precision in coastal and urban provinces with stationary and high-volume time series—such as Guayas, which recorded the lowest MAPE (4.91%)—while SARIMA outperformed Prophet in the Andean highlands, particularly in non-stationary, medium-to-high-volume provinces such as Tungurahua (MAPE 6.07%) and Pichincha (MAPE 13.38%). Computational instability in MAPE was noted for provinces with extremely low accident counts (e.g., Galápagos, Carchi), though RMSE values remained low, indicating a metric rather than model limitation. Overall, the findings invalidate the notion of a universally optimal model and underscore the necessity of adopting adaptive, region-specific modeling frameworks that account for local geographic, demographic, and structural factors in predictive road safety analytics.

The incorporation of emerging technologies in education has generated new alternatives to strengthen practical learning, especially in laboratory contexts, where limitations of time, resources, and safety often exist. In this regard, the present study aims to analyze the use of augmented reality in laboratory practices, considering its influence on the usability of technological tools and on student performance. The research was developed under a descriptive and analytical approach, through a systematic review of scientific literature and the analysis of documented educational experiences at different levels of education. The results show that the application of augmented reality facilitates the understanding of experimental procedures, improves student interaction with laboratory materials, and contributes to the reduction of errors during the execution of practices. Likewise, an increase in motivation and autonomous learning was identified when the tools present an intuitive design aligned with pedagogical objectives. The discussion of the findings allows these results to be interpreted as consistent with previous studies that highlight the value of interactive technologies in experiential learning. In conclusion, augmented reality constitutes an effective didactic strategy to optimize laboratory practices, provided that its implementation considers usability criteria and appropriate pedagogical integration.

This study develops a spatio-temporal forecasting artifact for road traffic accidents in Ecuador, addressing a critical limitation in existing predictive approaches that rely predominantly on point error metrics without validating the statistical assumptions underlying forecast uncertainty. Motivated by pronounced territorial heterogeneity in accident incidence and the need for reliable decision-support tools, the research proposes a multiregional modeling framework that integrates statistical residual validation to enhance the robustness of road safety planning. Using a dataset of 27{,}648 monthly observations covering all 24 provinces from 2014 to 2025, the study applies the Prophet model within a Design Science Research paradigm and a CRISP-DM implementation cycle. Separate provincial models are estimated with a 24-month forecasting horizon, and methodological rigor is ensured through systematic residual diagnostics using the Shapiro--Wilk test for normality and the Ljung--Box test for temporal independence. Empirical results indicate that the Prophet-based artifact outperforms a naïve seasonal benchmark in 70.8\% of the provinces, demonstrating excellent predictive accuracy in structurally stable regions such as Tungurahua (MAPE = 10.9\%). At the same time, the framework enables the identification of critical emerging risks in provinces such as Santo Domingo and Cotopaxi, where projected increases exceed 49\% despite acceptable point forecasts. The findings confirm that point accuracy alone does not guarantee the validity of confidence intervals and that residual validation is essential for trustworthy uncertainty quantification. Overall, the proposed approach provides a robust foundation for a predictive surveillance system capable of supporting differentiated, evidence-based road safety policies in territorially heterogeneous contexts.

This study develops a multiregional forecasting framework for road traffic accidents in Ecuador, addressing a critical limitation in existing predictive approaches that rely predominantly on point error metrics without validating the statistical assumptions underlying forecast uncertainty. Although the analysis is conducted at the provincial level, the spatial dimension is used primarily for cross-regional comparison and risk classification rather than for explicit spatial interaction modeling. Using a dataset of 27,648 monthly observations covering all 24 provinces from 2014 to 2025, the study applies the Prophet model within a Design Science Research paradigm and a CRISP-DM implementation cycle. Separate provincial models are estimated with a 24-month forecasting horizon, and methodological rigor is ensured through systematic residual diagnostics using the Shapiro–Wilk test for normality and the Ljung–Box test for temporal independence. Empirical results indicate that the Prophet-based artifact outperforms a naïve seasonal benchmark in 70.8% of the provinces, demonstrating excellent predictive accuracy in structurally stable regions such as Tungurahua (MAPE = 10.9%). At the same time, the framework enables the identification of critical emerging risks in provinces such as Santo Domingo and Cotopaxi, where projected increases exceed 49% despite acceptable point forecasts. The findings confirm that point accuracy alone does not guarantee the validity of confidence intervals and that residual validation is essential for trustworthy uncertainty quantification. Overall, the proposed approach provides a robust foundation for a predictive surveillance system capable of supporting differentiated, evidence-based road safety policies in territorially heterogeneous contexts.