Linepithema humile (Mayr, 1868) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is one of “100 of the world’s worst invasive alien species” listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN). Although native to South America, this ant has spread worldwide via international trade. Currently, L. humile has not been found in China, and if it invades China, it might pose a potential risk to the native invertebrates, vertebrates, plants, and human livelihoods. Based on 2432 global occurrence records and ten bioclimatic variables, the optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential suitable areas of L. humile in China. We analyzed the important bioclimatic variables affecting the potential suitable areas, and determined the changes in potential suitable areas under future climatic scenarios. Our results indicated that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18) were the most important bioclimatic variables. Under the current climatic scenarios, the potential suitable area of L. humile in China is 80.31 × 10⁴ km², which is mainly located in Fujian, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Yunnan, and Hubei. Under future climate scenarios over coming decades, the potential suitable areas of L. humile showed an overall increase and a shift to higher latitudes, which indicated the invasion risk of L. humile in China will increase under climate change. Our findings provide the theoretical guidance for the early warning and monitoring of L. humile in China.

Tagetes minuta L., a member of the Tageftes genus belonging to the Asteraceae family, is a well-documented exotic plant native to South America that has become established in China. In this study, 784 occurrence records and 12 environmental variables were used to predict the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of T. minuta under current and future climatic changes using an optimized MaxEnt model. The results showed that (1) three out of the twelve variables contributed the most to the model performance: isothermality (bio3), precipitation in the driest quarter (bio17), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) the PGDs of T. minuta under the current climate covered 62.06 × 10⁴ km², mainly in North, South, and Southwest China; and (3) climate changes will facilitate the expansion of the PGDs of T. minuta under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in both the 2030s and 2050s. The centroid of suitable habitats under SSP2-4.5 moved the longest distance. T. minuta has the capacity to expand in China, especially in Yunnan, where there exist no occurrence records. Customs, ports, and adjacent regions should strengthen the quarantine of imported goods and mobile personnel for T. minuta, and introduced seedlings should be isolated to minimize their introduction risk.