China’s rapid electric vehicle (EV) market expansion—from 331,000 units in 2015 to over 9.5 million in 2023—is generating an unprecedented wave of retired lithium-ion batteries projected to exceed 94 TWh cumulatively by 2060, presenting critical challenges for sustainable resource management. While grid decarbonization can reduce use-phase emissions, the substantial embodied carbon in battery production (55–130 kg CO₂-eq/kWh) remains a critical challenge for achieving carbon neutrality. This study presents an integrated dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) and prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) framework—calibrated against the latest peer-reviewed literature—to quantify the carbon mitigation potential of battery recycling and second-life applications from 2020 to 2060. We evaluate four end-of-life management scenarios: baseline linear economy, enhanced recycling, second-life dominant, and synergistic optimization. Our results reveal that the synergistic scenario achieves the highest cumulative avoided emissions of 3844 Mt CO₂-eq, representing a 12.1-fold improvement over the baseline. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis (n = 10,000) confirms robust scenario differentiation, with 100% probability that synergistic optimization outperforms enhanced recycling alone. Material security analysis shows that recycled supply can meet 100% of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper demand by 2060 under optimal management. These findings provide quantitative evidence for chemistry-differentiated battery management policies aligned with China’s dual carbon goals and the transition toward a sustainable circular economy.

Energy-efficiency labeling may yield lower savings than engineering estimates suggest because market uptake is constrained by consumers and enterprises. This study aims to quantify this gap for dishwasher energy-efficiency labeling in China, identify the binding constraint, and assess its recoverable share. A logistic stock-flow model estimates theoretical savings under GB 38383-2019, while surveys of 199 consumers and 191 enterprises parameterize a dual-sided indicator system. Assuming that consumer and enterprise capacities are non-substitutable, a weakest-link model and scenario simulations estimate realized and recoverable savings. Theoretical savings reach 20.26 TWh by 2030, but only 55.9% (11.33 TWh) is realizable, leaving an 8.94 TWh gap. Consumer-side capacity (0.559) is lower than enterprise-side capacity (0.657), mainly because of experience-related barriers. The highest-intensity bilateral scenario recovers 33.0% of the gap and raises the realization rate to 70.4%. Thus, stricter standards alone cannot ensure realized savings; policies should prioritize consumer experience and label accessibility alongside enterprise compliance.