In order to improve the prediction accuracy of mining safety production situation and remove the difficulty of model selection for nonstationary time series, a grey (GM) autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is proposed. First of all, according to the nonstationary characteristics of the mining safety accident time series, nonstationary original time series were decomposed into high- and low-frequency signals using the EMD algorithm, which represents the overall trend and random disturbances, respectively. Subsequently, the GM model was used to predict high-frequency signal sequence, while the ARMA model was used to predict low-frequency signal sequence. Finally, aiming to predict the mining safety production situation, the EMD-GM-ARMA model was constructed via superimposing the prediction results of each subsequence, thereby compared to the ARIMA model, wavelet neural network model, and PSO-SVM model. The results demonstrated that the EMD-GM-ARMA model and the PSO-SVM model hold the highest prediction accuracy in the short-term prediction, and the wavelet neural network has the lowest prediction accuracy. The PSO-SVM model’s prediction accuracy decreases in medium- and long-term predictions while the EMD-GM-ARMA model still can maintain high prediction accuracy. Moreover, the relative error fluctuations of the EMD-GM-ARMA model are relatively stable in both short-term and medium-term predictions. This shows that the EMD-GM-ARMA model can provide high-precision predictions with high stability, proving the model to be feasible and effective in predicting the mining safety production situation.

The accurate assessment of tailings dam operational status and timely risk warnings are critical for ensuring their safe operation. To address the limitations of existing models in managing complex environments and multidimensional risk factors, this study proposes an early warning model for tailings dam operational status based on a two-dimensional cloud model. First, a comprehensive early warning system is developed to assess the probability and consequences of dam failure, using risk probability and consequences as two-dimensional coordinates, incorporating the randomness and fuzziness of uncertainty described by cloud theory, and transforming qualitative data into quantitative conclusions. Next, a genetic algorithm optimizes the projection pursuit model to determine weights, and weighted numerical features are utilized to enhance the classification of early warning levels. Furthermore, the two-dimensional cloud model is enhanced by introducing a proximity coefficient to replace the membership function, with the resulting cloud map visualized using a forward cloud generator. Finally, the early warning level of the tailings dam’s operational status is determined based on the clustering of cloud droplets and the proximity coefficient. Empirical application to five tailings dams in Hubei Province confirms the model’s effectiveness and practicality. The results demonstrate that the model effectively addresses the complexity and uncertainty of tailings dam operational status, delivers accurate warnings, and provides robust decision support for emergency response.

In order to explore the occurrence and development law of mining safety production accidents, analyze its future change trends, and aim at the ambiguity, non-stationarity, and randomness of mining safety production accidents, an uncertainty prediction model for mining safety production situation is proposed. Firstly, the time series effect evaluation function is introduced to determine the optimal time granularity, which is used as the window width of fuzzy information granulation (FIG), and the time series of mining safety production situation is mapped to Low, R and Up three granular parameter sequences, according to the triangular fuzzy number; Then, the mean value of the intrinsic mode function (IMF) is maintained in the normal dynamic filtering range. After the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), the three non-stationary granulation parameter sequences of Low, R and Up are decomposed into the intrinsic mode function components representing the detail information and the trend components representing the overall change, and then the sub-sequences are reconstructed according to the sample entropy to highlight the correlation among the sub-sequences; Finally, the cloud model language rules of mining safety production situation prediction are created. Through time series discretization, cloud transformation, concept jump, time series set division, association rule mining and uncertain reasoning, the reconstructed component sequence is modeled and predicted by uncertainty information extraction. The accuracy of the uncertainty prediction model was verified by 21 sets of test samples. The average relative errors of Low, R and Up sequences were 9.472 %, 16.671 % and 3.625 %, respectively. The research shows that the uncertainty prediction model of mining safety production situation overcomes the fuzziness, non-stationarity and uncertainty of safety production accidents, and provides theoretical reference and practical guidance for mining safety management and decision-making.

Icing and galloping disasters threaten the safe operation of power transmission lines, and effective response depends on multi-agent collaboration. To address the insufficient attention paid in existing studies to grassroots execution constraints, this paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model involving local governments, power grid enterprise O&M management, and grassroots O&M teams. The model integrates collaborative investment, agency costs, benefit sharing, and multi-layer reward–punishment mechanisms into a unified framework. Replicator dynamics and numerical simulations are then used to analyze the evolution of collaborative strategies; the parameters are non-dimensional benchmark values rather than empirically calibrated estimates. The results show that the system exhibits multi-stability and path dependence, with fully non-collaborative and fully collaborative equilibria possibly remaining stable simultaneously. The combination of strong government regulation and incentives with high-level enterprise collaborative management is the key mechanism for overcoming the low-collaboration trap, and strict accountability has higher marginal policy efficiency than equivalent subsidies. Reducing grassroots execution costs and moderately increasing their share of disaster mitigation benefits can accelerate collaborative convergence and expand the attraction basin of the high-collaboration equilibrium. This study provides theoretical support and mechanism-design implications for enhancing the resilience of collaborative emergency response for power transmission lines under extreme weather conditions.