Climate change is increasingly affecting groundwater resources in the Carpathian Basin, while rising temperatures are likely to increase irrigation demand and pressure on aquifers. We assessed climate- and pumping-driven impacts on the Nyírség recharge–discharge system (north-eastern Hungary) by combining shallow groundwater monitoring (1970–2022) with hydroclimate indicators from CHIRPS precipitation and ERA5-Land air temperature and snow depth (1981–2024). Using these datasets, we developed and calibrated a MODFLOW groundwater-flow model for representative wet (2010) and dry (2022) conditions, incorporating permitted abstraction and scenario-based estimates of unregistered pumping. We then ran scenario simulations to evaluate mid-century (2050) conditions and managed aquifer recharge (MAR) options. Precipitation exhibits strong interannual variability, but the region shows marked warming and a pronounced decline in snow storage, implying reduced cold-season buffering and higher evaporative demand. Simulations reproduce the observed post-2010 decline in shallow groundwater, with the largest decreases in higher-elevation recharge areas, whereas increased pumping mainly intensifies localized drawdown near major well fields. Scenario results indicate that climate-driven reductions in recharge dominate basin-scale declines by 2050, while MAR provides primarily local benefits; direct subsurface injection performs best among the tested options. These findings support practical groundwater management by prioritizing measurable and enforceable abstraction (including unregistered withdrawals), demand-side irrigation efficiency and adaptive caps in recharge areas, and targeted subsurface MAR where source water and infrastructure are available.

Climate change is increasingly affecting groundwater resources in the Carpathian Basin, and rising temperatures are expected to increase irrigation demand and pressure on aquifers; the Nyírség region in north-eastern Hungary, a hydraulically coherent recharge–discharge system, provides a suitable setting to investigate these impacts. We analysed multi-decadal groundwater levels from shallow monitoring wells (1970–2022) together with hydroclimate indicators derived from CHIRPS precipitation and ERA5-Land snow and temperature data (1981–2024). Using these inputs, we developed a MODFLOW groundwater flow model for the study area and calibrated it for representative drought and rainy periods, explicitly incorporating permitted withdrawals and estimates of illegal pumping, and applied scenario simulations to assess expected mid-century (2050) climate conditions and human-driven changes, including managed aquifer recharge options. The hydroclimate indicators show strong interannual precipitation variability alongside an overall warming and drying tendency and reduced snow storage. Scenario runs indicate declining shallow groundwater levels, with the largest decreases in higher-elevation areas, while increased pumping primarily intensifies local drawdown near major well fields. Model results suggest that direct subsurface injection is the most effective recharge approach, and water-budget analysis indicates that natural variability can drive subsurface flow changes much larger than those caused by water production, underscoring the need for integrated, long-term measures that include changes in water use.