This article presents an analysis of time-series for hydrometeorological conditions determining the behavior of the natural environment in the South Baltic coastal zone of Poland. The analysis is based on monthly data for average air temperature, total atmospheric precipitation, and average sea level during the 50-year period from 1966–2015 for three coastal stations in Hel, Ustka, and Świnoujście. Time decomposition of these hydrometeorological conditions and formulation of short-term forecasts were carried out using ARIMA modelling. This study identifies the seasonal and non-seasonal parameters that determine both current and future hydrometeorological conditions. Moreover, it indicates the spatial differences among features of the analyzed time-series, estimated parameters of the selected models, and forecasts. The ARIMA models used for the Polish Baltic coastal zone are somewhat spatially homogenous. This is especially true of the models for average monthly air temperature, which are identical across the entire coastal zone (2,0,1)(2,1,0)₁₂. Very similar are the models for average monthly sea level across the central and west coast (1,0,0)(1,1,0)₁₂. The model for the east coast, however, was determined to be slightly different (2,0,2)(2,1,0)₁₂. In contrast to those for air temperature and sea level, the models used for atmospheric precipitation were different for each site. Among the parameters modelled, the effect of AR(p) processes was greater than that of MA(q) processes. The monthly models for Ustka are an example of this: average air temperature (2,0,1)(2,1,0)₁₂, atmospheric precipitation (0,0,3)(2,1,0)₁₂, and average sea level (1,0,0)(1,1,0)₁₂. Time decomposition of extreme hydrometeorological conditions has an important utilitarian significance. The climate of the Polish Baltic coastal zone is getting warmer, the sea level is rising, and the frequency of extreme hydrometeorological events is increasing. Time decomposition of hydrometeorological conditions based on monthly data did not reveal long-term trends. In the last half-century, hydrometeorological conditions have been conducive to erosion of coastal dunes and cliffs. These factors determine changes in the natural environment and limit the development potential of the coastal zone. The time decomposition, modelling, and forecasting of hydrometeorological conditions are thus very important for many areas of human activity, especially those related to management, protection, and development of the coast.

The aim of the article is to present the temporal and spatial variability of the cliff coast erosion of the Wolin Island in 2012–2020 in three time periods (2012–2015, 2015–2018, 2018–2020). The research used data from airborne laser scanning (ALS), based on which DEM models were made. Based on the differences between the models, the amount of sediment that was eroded by the sea waves was determined. The conducted research showed that, in the analyzed period, the dynamics of the Wolin cliffs were characterized by high variability. The greatest erosion was observed on sandy cliffs, and the smallest on clay cliffs and on cliffs that are densely covered with vegetation. In the sediment budget studies, two seashore erosivity indicators were proposed: length-normalized sediment budget (L_B) (m³/m) and area-normalized sediment budget (A_B) (m³/m²). The average annual dynamics of the cliff edge erosion on the Wolin Island was found to be L_B = 6.6 ± 0.3 m³/m/a, A_B = 0.17 ± 0.01 m³/m²/a. The results obtained are comparable with other postglacial cliffs. The use of the differential analysis of DEM models allows for the determination of the dynamics of the cliff coast and may be used in spatial development and planning of seashore protection zones.

The main aim of this study is to determine the threshold values for extreme sea and weather events on the Polish Baltic coast. The study is based on daily hydrometeorological data on the sea level; air temperature and atmospheric precipitation collected between 1965–2014 from six coastal sites (Świnoujście; Kołobrzeg, Ustka, Łeba, Hel, and Gdynia/Gdańsk). Threshold values for the occurrence of extreme events (with a probability of 10% and 95%, and a return rate of once every 10 years) and exceptionally extreme events (with a probability of 1% and 99%, and a return rate of once every 100 years) were determined using probability distribution and quantile analysis. Hydrometeorological absolute extremes were also determined. The methodology used to determine these extreme events and the time-space analysis of hydrometeorological extremes reveal significant geohazards for the functioning of the Baltic coastal zone, including the erosion of coastal dunes and cliffs and the destruction of technical infrastructure.

Climate changes, sea transgression and sea coast erosion observed today cause dynamic changes in coastal ecosystems. In the elaboration, cause and effect interrelations between abiotic hazards (hydrometeorological conditions and sea coast morphodynamics) and biotic (Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum phytocoenosis) components of natural environment have been defined. An up-to-date phytosociological analysis of a very valuable Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum site on cliff tableland was conducted in the context of hitherto temporal variability of climatic conditions and the rate of cliff coast recession. Also, the development prognosis of the researched site in the 21st century is provided, with respect to the expected climate changes and cliff's morphodynamics. The conducted research actions revealed the influence of global hazards (e.g. climate changes, sea transgression and sea coast erosion) on changes in the natural environment on regional scale (with the example of the site of Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum on a cliff coast of Wolin island in Poland). It has been established that in the 21st century, a relatively larger hazard to the functioning of the researched site is climate changes (i.e. mostly changes in thermal and precipitation conditions) not the sea coast erosion.

This article presents the temporal and spatial variability of hydrometeorological conditions conducive aeolian processes on the Southern Baltic coastal zone in Poland. The analysis made use of daily meteorological (wind, temperature, and rainfall) and hydrological (sea level) data from 1961 to 2010. Data for four stations (Świnoujście, Kołobrzeg, Ustka, Hel) were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw. A time decomposition of hydrometeorological conditions conducive to the initiation and intensification of aeolian processes in the coastal zone was also performed. In addition to their scientific significance, the temporal and spatial conditions for aeolian processes on the Baltic coast of Poland have an essential utilitarian significance. Modern aeolian processes on the Baltic coast limit the development potential of the coastal zone. Aeolian processes have a positive and negative impact on geomorphological transformation of the sea coast. They take part in the reconstruction of the beach and foredunes after storms. In periods between storms, coastal wind is seen to decrease the balance of beach sediments and lowers the beach area. On the other hand, onshore wind favors, among other things, filling of tourist infrastructure and development located at the hinterland of the beach and dunes. Hydrometeorological conditions especially favorable to the intensification of aeolian processes are the main determinants of geomorphological changes in the coastal zone (some of which can be extreme). Temporal and spatial analysis of hydrometeorological conditions conducive to aeolian processes is important for many areas of human activity, especially those concerning protection, management, and development of the coast.