Intensive economic and human activities present challenges to the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in arid regions that are sensitive to climate change and ecologically fragile. Therefore, accurately estimating and simulating future changes in carbon stocks on the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains (NSEBTM) holds great significance for maintaining ecosystem stability, achieving high-quality development of the economic belt, and realizing the goal of “carbon neutrality” by 2050. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the NSEBTM carbon stocks in arid regions from 1990 to 2050, utilizing a combination of multi-source data and integrating the Patch-generating Land use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models. Additionally, an attribution analysis of carbon stock changes is conducted by leveraging land use data. The findings demonstrate that (1) the NSEBTM predominantly consists of underutilized land, accounting for more than 60% of the total land area in the NSEBTM. Unused land, grassland, and water bodies exhibit a declining trend over time, while other forms of land use demonstrate an increasing trend. (2) Grassland serves as the primary reservoir for carbon storage in the NSEBTM, with grassland degradation being the leading cause of carbon loss amounting to 102.35 t over the past three decades. (3) Under the ecological conservation scenario for 2050 compared to the natural development scenario, there was a net increase in carbon storage by 12.34 t; however, under the economic development scenario compared to the natural development scenario, there was a decrease in carbon storage by 25.88 t. By quantitatively evaluating the land use change in the NSEBTM and its impact on carbon storage in the past and projected for the next 30 years, this paper provides scientific references and precise data support for the territorial and spatial decision making of the NSEBTM, thereby facilitating the achievement of “carbon neutrality” goals.

The Tarim River Basin, a core region for economic development and ecological security in China’s inland arid areas, faces the pressing challenge of synergistically improving land use efficiency to resolve human-land conflicts under water resource constraints and achieve sustainable development. Based on the “economic-social-ecological” benefit coordination theory, this study constructs a land use efficiency evaluation system with 16 indicators and integrates the coupling coordination degree model and gravity model to quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal differentiation patterns and coupling mechanisms of land use efficiency in the basin from 1990 to 2020. Results show that economic and social benefits of land use increased during this period, exhibiting a “high-north, low-south” spatial pattern, while ecological benefits remained relatively high but declined gradually. The coupling coordination degree of subsystem benefits displayed significant spatial heterogeneity, with an overall upward trend, where composite factors emerged as the primary constraint. Spatially, land use efficiency coupling coordination evolved from “core polarization” to “axial expansion” and finally “networked synergy,” with stronger linkages concentrated in oasis irrigation districts. These findings provide theoretical support for ecological conservation, water management, and policy-making in southern Xinjiang, offering pathways to synergize the “economic-social-ecological” system and promote sustainable development in arid regions.

Understanding vegetation-mediated mitigation of urban heat islands (UHI) is essential for sustainable urban adaptation strategies. Although vegetation responses to extreme heat events have been widely explored using satellite remote sensing and statistical methods, evidence remains limited regarding how these responses vary along urban–rural gradients, particularly in terms of resistance and recovery dynamics. This study focuses on the North Tianshan Slope Urban Agglomeration (TNSUA) in Xinjiang, China. Based on Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data from 2000 to 2022, an urban–rural gradient was delineated using impervious surface fraction. Vegetation resistance and recovery during extreme heat events were quantified to reveal spatiotemporal response patterns. Generalized additive models (GAMs) and Random Forest (RF) models were applied to identify key driving factors and to evaluate their relative importance across multiple spatial scales. The results indicate that rural land cover along the gradient provides a strong cooling effect, particularly in areas with an urban development intensity (UDI) of 70–85%. Vegetation responses show pronounced seasonal differences, with urban vegetation generally exhibiting lower resistance and recovery than rural vegetation. At the county scale, local UHI intensity is the dominant driver of vegetation responses, whereas at the pixel scale, precipitation and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) play the most critical roles. Overall, this study improves the understanding of vegetation responses to extreme heat events in arid regions and provides scientific support for nature-based urban heat adaptation strategies.

Ecological restoration in arid regions can enhance ecosystem functions but may coincide with groundwater stress. Using nine headwater basins of the Tarim River Basin, we analyzed a GRACE/GLDAS-derived groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) proxy for 2003–2025 and four ecosystem services and the integrated index (ESI) for 2000–2025; joint analyses covered 2003–2025. Correlation analysis, joint-trend zoning, and CatBoost–SHAP characterized spatial mismatches and nonlinear associations. The GWSA proxy declined by −0.31 mm month⁻¹, with negative anomalies intensifying after 2020 and a northwest-decrease/southeast-increase pattern. Comparisons with groundwater-level anomalies showed moderate agreement at Aksu (r = 0.52) but weak, nonsignificant agreement at Cele (r = −0.08), indicating spatially heterogeneous reliability. Carbon storage, habitat quality, net primary productivity, and ESI increased, whereas sand retention declined. Areas with increasing ESI but decreasing GWSA accounted for 42.5% of the study area. Five CatBoost models achieved R² values of 0.868–0.977. Regarding ESI, SHAP identified a candidate transition near −18.6 mm, below which GWSA was associated with negative model contributions; human-footprint contributions became increasingly negative with disturbance. These statistical associations, rather than causal effects, demonstrate that ecosystem-service improvement does not necessarily indicate groundwater recovery.