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In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), diets are largely based on cereal or root staple crops. Together with socio-cultural change, economic and demographic growth could boost the demand for meat, with significant environmental repercussions. We model meat consumption pathways to 2050 for SSA based on several scenarios calibrated on historical demand drivers. To assess the consequent environmental impact, we adopt an environmentally-extended input-output (EEIO) framework and apply it on the EXIOBASE 3.3 hybrid tables. We find that, depending on the interplay of resources efficiency and demand growth, by 2050 the growth in meat consumption in SSA could cause a growth in greenhouse gases emissions of 1.4 [0.9–1.9] Gt CO2e/yr (~175% of current regional agriculture-related emissions), which is an extension of cropping and grazing-related land of 15 [12.5–21] · 106 km2 (one quarter of today’s global agricultural land), the consumption of an additional 36 [29–47] Gm3/yr of blue water (nearly doubling the current regional agricultural consumption), an eutrophication potential growth of 7.6 [4.9–9.5] t PO4e/yr, and the consumption of additional 0.9 [0.5–1.4] EJ/yr of fossil fuels and 49 [32–73] TWh/yr of electricity. These results suggest that—in the absence of significant improvements in the regional sectoral resource efficiency—meat demand growth in SSA is bound to become a major global sustainability challenge. In addition, we show that a partial substitution of the protein intake from the expected growth in meat consumption with plant-based alternatives carries additional significant potential for mitigating environmental impacts. The policies affecting both farming practices and dietary choices will thus have a significant impact on the SSA and global environmental flows.
Giacomo Falchetta; Nicolò Golinucci; Matteo Rocco. Environmental and Energy Implications of Meat Consumption Pathways in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sustainability 2021, 13, 7075 .
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Nicolò Golinucci, Matteo Rocco. Environmental and Energy Implications of Meat Consumption Pathways in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (13):7075.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Nicolò Golinucci; Matteo Rocco. 2021. "Environmental and Energy Implications of Meat Consumption Pathways in Sub-Saharan Africa." Sustainability 13, no. 13: 7075.
Globally about 800 million people live without electricity at home, over two thirds of which are in sub-Saharan Africa. Planning electricity access infrastructure and allocating resources efficiently requires a careful assessment of the diverse energy needs across space, time, and sectors. Because of data scarcity, most country or regional-scale electrification planning studies have however assumed a spatio-temporally homogeneous (top-down) potential electricity demand. Poorly representing the heterogeneity in the potential electricity demand across space, time, and energy sectors can lead to inappropriate energy planning, inaccurate energy system sizing, and misleading cost assessments. Here we introduce M-LED, a Multi-sectoral Latent Electricity Demand geospatial data processing platform to estimate electricity demand in communities that live in energy poverty. The platform shows how big data and bottom-up energy modelling can be leveraged together to represent the potential electricity demand with high spatio-temporal and sectoral granularity. We apply the methodology to Kenya as a country-study and devote specific attention to the implications for water-energy-agriculture-development interlinkages. A more detailed representation of the demand-side in large-scale electrification planning tools bears a potential for improving energy planning and policy.
Giacomo Falchetta; Nicolò Stevanato; Magda Moner-Girona; Davide Mazzoni; Emanuela Colombo; Manfred Hafner. The M-LED platform: advancing electricity demand assessment for communities living in energy poverty. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 074038 .
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Nicolò Stevanato, Magda Moner-Girona, Davide Mazzoni, Emanuela Colombo, Manfred Hafner. The M-LED platform: advancing electricity demand assessment for communities living in energy poverty. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (7):074038.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Nicolò Stevanato; Magda Moner-Girona; Davide Mazzoni; Emanuela Colombo; Manfred Hafner. 2021. "The M-LED platform: advancing electricity demand assessment for communities living in energy poverty." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 7: 074038.
Ahmed T. Hammad; Giacomo Falchetta; Ida Bagus Made Wirawan. Back to the fields? Increased agricultural land greenness after a COVID-19 lockdown. Environmental Research Communications 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleAhmed T. Hammad, Giacomo Falchetta, Ida Bagus Made Wirawan. Back to the fields? Increased agricultural land greenness after a COVID-19 lockdown. Environmental Research Communications. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAhmed T. Hammad; Giacomo Falchetta; Ida Bagus Made Wirawan. 2021. "Back to the fields? Increased agricultural land greenness after a COVID-19 lockdown." Environmental Research Communications , no. : 1.
Achieving universal electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa – a milestone of SDG 7 – requires about $30bn annually until 2030 on the top of baseline investment. The private sector plays a key role in supplying these investment flows, given the governmental budgetary constraints. Yet, private players face numerous sources of risk in their infrastructure investment decisions. This risk is usually factored in using a discount rate. To allow for a more realistic evaluation of the role of the investment environment in financing energy access, here we introduce the Electricity Access Governance Index (EAGI), a composite index of energy sector regulatory quality, energy sector governance, and market risk. The index is implemented through a discount rate conversion into a bottom-up integrated electricity planning model (IMAGE-TIMER) to evaluate the role of different sources of risk for electrification investment dynamics. Our results show that the adoption of decentralised systems for achieving universal energy access requires governance and institutional reform to lower discount rates faced by companies and households and mobilise private finance. Failure to reform investment environments will likely hamper the uptake of decentralised systems even in areas where they would be the techno-economically least-cost electrification option, and thus likely leave many without electricity.
Giacomo Falchetta; Anteneh G. Dagnachew; Andries F. Hof; David J. Milne. The role of regulatory, market and governance risk for electricity access investment in sub-Saharan Africa. Energy for Sustainable Development 2021, 62, 136 -150.
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Anteneh G. Dagnachew, Andries F. Hof, David J. Milne. The role of regulatory, market and governance risk for electricity access investment in sub-Saharan Africa. Energy for Sustainable Development. 2021; 62 ():136-150.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Anteneh G. Dagnachew; Andries F. Hof; David J. Milne. 2021. "The role of regulatory, market and governance risk for electricity access investment in sub-Saharan Africa." Energy for Sustainable Development 62, no. : 136-150.
Nearly 1 billion people live without electricity at home. Energy poverty limits their ability to take autonomous actions to improve air circulation and the cooling of their homes. It is therefore important that electricity-access planners explicitly evaluate the current and future air circulation and cooling needs of energy-poor households, in addition to other basic energy needs. To address this issue, we combine climate, socio-economic, demographic and satellite data with scenario analysis to model spatially explicit estimates of potential cooling demand from households that currently lack access to electricity. We link these demand factors into a bottom-up electrification model for sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the world's highest concentration of energy poverty. Accounting for cooling needs on top of baseline household demand implies that the average electrification investment requirements grow robustly (a scenario mean of 65.5% more than when considering baseline household demand only), mostly due to the larger generation capacity needed. Future climate change could increase the investment requirements by an additional scenario mean of 4%. Moreover, the share of decentralised systems as the lowest-cost electrification option falls by a scenario mean 4.5 percentage points of all new connections. The crucial determinants for efficient investment pathways are the adoption and use of cooling appliances, the extent of climate change, and the baseline electricity demand. Our results call for a more explicit consideration of climate-adaptative energy needs by infrastructure planners in developing countries.
Giacomo Falchetta; Malcolm N. Mistry. The role of residential air circulation and cooling demand for electrification planning: Implications of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Energy Economics 2021, 99, 105307 .
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Malcolm N. Mistry. The role of residential air circulation and cooling demand for electrification planning: Implications of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Energy Economics. 2021; 99 ():105307.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Malcolm N. Mistry. 2021. "The role of residential air circulation and cooling demand for electrification planning: Implications of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa." Energy Economics 99, no. : 105307.
If coupled with a low-carbon electricity mix, electric vehicles (EVs) can represent an important technology for transport decarbonization and local pollutants abatement. Yet, to ensure large-scale EVs adoption, an adequate charging stations network must be developed. This paper provides the first comprehensive bottom-up analysis of the EV charging network in Europe. Combining a crowd-sourced database of charging stations with accessibility data and algorithms, we produce maps of the travel time to the most accessible EV charging station across Europe, we evaluate the charging points density and the number of active operators in different areas. We find that although recent years have witnessed a notable expansion of the EV charging network, stark inequalities persist across and within countries, both in terms of accessibility and of the charging points available to users. Our results allow for a better understanding of some of the key challenges ahead for ensuring mass EVs adoption throughout Europe and thus potentially reducing the environmental impact of the transport sector.
Giacomo Falchetta; Michel Noussan. Electric vehicle charging network in Europe: An accessibility and deployment trends analysis. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 2021, 94, 102813 .
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Michel Noussan. Electric vehicle charging network in Europe: An accessibility and deployment trends analysis. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 2021; 94 ():102813.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Michel Noussan. 2021. "Electric vehicle charging network in Europe: An accessibility and deployment trends analysis." Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 94, no. : 102813.
In response to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers worldwide adopted unprecedented measures to limit disease spread, with major repercussions on labour markets and economic growth. Here we provide empirical evidence of their impact on agricultural activity due to sectoral labour reallocation. Analysing daily satellite data in a non-parametric machine learning statistical framework over cropland in Badung, a highly populated regency of Bali, Indonesia, we generate a counterfactual synthetic Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) based on gradient boosted decision trees trained on a set of environmental variables assuming no lockdown occurrence. Based on the counterfactual, we estimate a significant increase in the EVI over cropland after the beginning of the lockdown period. The finding is robust to a placebo test. We then exploit the heterogeneity of the region analysed, where the South is dominated by tourism and the tertiary sector and the North is already mostly agricultural, and we find a stronger effect in the former. This results suggests that the observed increase in remotely sensed agricultural productivity indexes is likely driven by a labour force reallocation towards the primary sector to compensate for the income lost from previous employment. Overall, our results show that statistical analysis of satellite data can be an effective methodology to observe the impact of a labour force crowding into the agricultural sector in response to an exogenous shock in other labour sectors.
Ahmed Hammad; Giacomo Falchetta; I. B. M. Wirawan. Back to the fields: COVID-19 impact on agricultural activity detected with satellite data. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleAhmed Hammad, Giacomo Falchetta, I. B. M. Wirawan. Back to the fields: COVID-19 impact on agricultural activity detected with satellite data. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAhmed Hammad; Giacomo Falchetta; I. B. M. Wirawan. 2021. "Back to the fields: COVID-19 impact on agricultural activity detected with satellite data." , no. : 1.
Achieving universal health care coverage—a key target of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal number 3—requires accessibility to health care services for all. Currently, in sub-Saharan Africa, at least one-sixth of the population lives more than 2 h away from a public hospital, and one in eight people is no less than 1 h away from the nearest health center. We combine high-resolution data on the location of different typologies of public health care facilities [J. Maina et al., Sci. Data 6, 134 (2019)] with population distribution maps and terrain-specific accessibility algorithms to develop a multiobjective geographic information system framework for assessing the optimal allocation of new health care facilities and assessing hospitals expansion requirements. The proposed methodology ensures universal accessibility to public health care services within prespecified travel times while guaranteeing sufficient available hospital beds. Our analysis suggests that to meet commonly accepted universal health care accessibility targets, sub-Saharan African countries will need to build ∼6,200 new facilities by 2030. We also estimate that about 2.5 million new hospital beds need to be allocated between new facilities and ∼1,100 existing structures that require expansion or densification. Optimized location, type, and capacity of each facility can be explored in an interactive dashboard. Our methodology and the results of our analysis can inform local policy makers in their assessment and prioritization of health care infrastructure. This is particularly relevant to tackle health care accessibility inequality, which is not only prominent within and between countries of sub-Saharan Africa but also, relative to the level of service provided by health care facilities.
Giacomo Falchetta; Ahmed T. Hammad; Soheil Shayegh. Planning universal accessibility to public health care in sub-Saharan Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2020, 117, 31760 -31769.
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Ahmed T. Hammad, Soheil Shayegh. Planning universal accessibility to public health care in sub-Saharan Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2020; 117 (50):31760-31769.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Ahmed T. Hammad; Soheil Shayegh. 2020. "Planning universal accessibility to public health care in sub-Saharan Africa." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 50: 31760-31769.
Giacomo Falchetta; Manfred Hafner; Simone Tagliapietra. Pathways to 100% Electrification in East Africa by 2030. The Energy Journal 2020, 41, 1 .
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Manfred Hafner, Simone Tagliapietra. Pathways to 100% Electrification in East Africa by 2030. The Energy Journal. 2020; 41 (3):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Manfred Hafner; Simone Tagliapietra. 2020. "Pathways to 100% Electrification in East Africa by 2030." The Energy Journal 41, no. 3: 1.
Giacomo Falchetta; Shonali Pachauri; Edward Byers; Olha Danylo; Simon C. Parkinson. Satellite Observations Reveal Inequalities in the Progress and Effectiveness of Recent Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa. One Earth 2020, 2, 364 -379.
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Shonali Pachauri, Edward Byers, Olha Danylo, Simon C. Parkinson. Satellite Observations Reveal Inequalities in the Progress and Effectiveness of Recent Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa. One Earth. 2020; 2 (4):364-379.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Shonali Pachauri; Edward Byers; Olha Danylo; Simon C. Parkinson. 2020. "Satellite Observations Reveal Inequalities in the Progress and Effectiveness of Recent Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa." One Earth 2, no. 4: 364-379.
In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) most people live on plant-dominated diets, with significantly lower levels of per-capita meat consumption than in any other region. Yet, economic development has nearly everywhere spurred a shift to dietary regimes with a greater consumption of meat, albeit with regional heterogeneity for meat-type and magnitude. A growing regional economy, changing cultural attitudes, and a steeply increasing population could thus push the regional demand upward in the coming decades, with significant depletion of regional and global natural resources and environmental repercussions. We study the historical association of the four main meat types with demand drivers in recently developed countries via seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) equation systems. Using the calibrated coefficients, trajectories of meat consumption in SSA to 2050 are projected relying on the SSP scenarios over GDP and population growth. Then, using a Leontiefian environmentally extended input-output (EEIO) framework exploiting the EXIOBASE3 database, we estimate the related energy, land, and water requirements, and the implied greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4, N2O) emissions. We calculate that if production to meet those consumption levels takes place in the continent – compared to the current situation – global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would grow by 230 Mt CO2e (4.4% of today’s global agriculture-related emissions), the land required for cropping and grazing would require additional 4.2 · 106 km2 (more than half of the total arable land in SSA), total blue water consumption would rise by 10,300 Mm3 (0.89% of the global total), and additional 1.2 EJ of energy (6% of today’s total primary energy demand in the region) would be required. Alternative scenarios where SSA is a net importer of final meat products are reported for comparison. The local policy and attitudes towards farming practices and dietary choices will have significant impact on both the regional environment and global GHG emissions.
Giacomo Falchetta; Nicolò Golinucci; Michel Noussan. Representative meat consumption pathways for sub-Saharan Africa and their local and global energy and environmental implications. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Nicolò Golinucci, Michel Noussan. Representative meat consumption pathways for sub-Saharan Africa and their local and global energy and environmental implications. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Nicolò Golinucci; Michel Noussan. 2020. "Representative meat consumption pathways for sub-Saharan Africa and their local and global energy and environmental implications." , no. : 1.
Hydro-climatic extremes can affect the reliability of electricity supply, in particular in countries that depend greatly on hydropower or cooling water and have a limited adaptive capacity. Assessments of the vulnerability of the power sector and of the impact of extreme events are thus crucial for decision-makers, and yet often they are severely constrained by data scarcity. Here, we introduce and validate an energy-climate-water framework linking remotely-sensed data from multiple satellite missions and instruments (TOPEX/POSEIDON. OSTM/Jason, VIIRS, MODIS, TMPA, AMSR‐E) and field observations. The platform exploits random forests regression algorithms to mitigate data scarcity and predict river discharge variability when ungauged. The validated predictions are used to assess the impact of hydroclimatic extremes on hydropower reliability and on the final use of electricity in urban areas proxied by nighttime light radiance variation. We apply the framework to the case of Malawi for the periods 2000-2018 and 2012-2018 for hydrology and power, respectively. Our results highlight the significant impact of hydro-climatic variability and dry extremes on both the supply of electricity and its final use. We thus show that a modelling framework based on open-access data from satellites, machine learning algorithms, and regression analysis can mitigate data scarcity and improve the understanding of vulnerabilities. The proposed approach can support long-term infrastructure development monitoring and identify vulnerable populations, in particular under a changing climate.
Giacomo Falchetta; Chisomo Kasamba; Simon C Parkinson. Monitoring hydropower reliability in Malawi with satellite data and machine learning. Environmental Research Letters 2019, 15, 014011 .
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Chisomo Kasamba, Simon C Parkinson. Monitoring hydropower reliability in Malawi with satellite data and machine learning. Environmental Research Letters. 2019; 15 (1):014011.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Chisomo Kasamba; Simon C Parkinson. 2019. "Monitoring hydropower reliability in Malawi with satellite data and machine learning." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1: 014011.
The world is undergoing an energy transition with the inclusion of intermittent sources of energy in the grid. These variable renewable energy sources require energy storage solutions to be integrated smoothly over different time steps. In the near future, batteries can provide short-term storage solutions and pumped-hydro storage can provide long-term energy storage with large generation capacities. However, none of these technologies can provide long-term energy storage in grids with small demand. This paper proposes a new storage concept called Mountain Gravity Energy Storage (MGES) that could fill this gap in storage services. MGES systems move sand or gravel from a lower storage site to an upper elevation. The higher the height difference the greater the amount of stored energy in a given installed capacity, as this technology is constrained to the topography of the location. MGES cost varies from 50 to 100 $/MWh of stored energy and 1–2 M$/MW of installed capacity. MGES could be a feasible option for micro-grids, for example, small islands and isolated areas, and power systems where electricity costs are high, demand for energy storage is smaller than 20 MW with monthly or seasonal storage requirements.
Julian David Hunt; Behnam Zakeri; Giacomo Falchetta; Andreas Nascimento; Yoshihide Wada; Keywan Riahi. Mountain Gravity Energy Storage: A new solution for closing the gap between existing short- and long-term storage technologies. Energy 2019, 190, 116419 .
AMA StyleJulian David Hunt, Behnam Zakeri, Giacomo Falchetta, Andreas Nascimento, Yoshihide Wada, Keywan Riahi. Mountain Gravity Energy Storage: A new solution for closing the gap between existing short- and long-term storage technologies. Energy. 2019; 190 ():116419.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJulian David Hunt; Behnam Zakeri; Giacomo Falchetta; Andreas Nascimento; Yoshihide Wada; Keywan Riahi. 2019. "Mountain Gravity Energy Storage: A new solution for closing the gap between existing short- and long-term storage technologies." Energy 190, no. : 116419.
Increasing human demands for water, energy, food and materials, are expected to accentuate resource supply challenges over the coming decades. Experience suggests that long-term strategies for a single sector could yield both trade-offs and synergies for other sectors. Thus, long-term transition pathways for linked resource systems should be informed using nexus approaches. Global integrated assessment models can represent the synergies and trade-offs inherent in the exploitation of water, energy and land (WEL) resources, including the impacts of international trade and climate policies. In this study, we review the current state-of-the-science in global integrated assessment modeling with an emphasis on how models have incorporated integrated WEL solutions. A large-scale assessment of the relevant literature was performed using online databases and structured keyword search queries. The results point to the following main opportunities for future research and model development: (1) improving the temporal and spatial resolution of economic models for the energy and water sectors; (2) balancing energy and land requirements across sectors; (3) integrated representation of the role of distribution infrastructure in alleviating resource challenges; (4) modeling of solution impacts on downstream environmental quality; (5) improved representation of the implementation challenges stemming from regional financial and institutional capacity; (6) enabling dynamic multi-sectoral vulnerability and adaptation needs assessment; and (7) the development of fully-coupled assessment frameworks based on consistent, scalable, and regionally-transferable platforms. Improved database management and computational power are needed to address many of these modeling challenges at a global-scale.
Nils Johnson; Peter Burek; Edward Byers; Giacomo Falchetta; Martina Flörke; Shinichiro Fujimori; Petr Havlik; Mohamad Hejazi; Julian Hunt; Volker Krey; Simon Langan; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; Amanda Palazzo; Alexander Popp; Keywan Riahi; Michiel Van Dijk; Michelle T.H. van Vliet; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Yoshihide Wada; David Wiberg; Barbara Willaarts; Caroline Zimm; Simon Parkinson. Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge? Water 2019, 11, 2223 .
AMA StyleNils Johnson, Peter Burek, Edward Byers, Giacomo Falchetta, Martina Flörke, Shinichiro Fujimori, Petr Havlik, Mohamad Hejazi, Julian Hunt, Volker Krey, Simon Langan, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Amanda Palazzo, Alexander Popp, Keywan Riahi, Michiel Van Dijk, Michelle T.H. van Vliet, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Yoshihide Wada, David Wiberg, Barbara Willaarts, Caroline Zimm, Simon Parkinson. Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge? Water. 2019; 11 (11):2223.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNils Johnson; Peter Burek; Edward Byers; Giacomo Falchetta; Martina Flörke; Shinichiro Fujimori; Petr Havlik; Mohamad Hejazi; Julian Hunt; Volker Krey; Simon Langan; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; Amanda Palazzo; Alexander Popp; Keywan Riahi; Michiel Van Dijk; Michelle T.H. van Vliet; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Yoshihide Wada; David Wiberg; Barbara Willaarts; Caroline Zimm; Simon Parkinson. 2019. "Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge?" Water 11, no. 11: 2223.
Giacomo Falchetta; David Gernaat; Julian Hunt; Sebastian Sterl. Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review. 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, David Gernaat, Julian Hunt, Sebastian Sterl. Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review. . 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; David Gernaat; Julian Hunt; Sebastian Sterl. 2019. "Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review." , no. : 1.
Spatially explicit data on electricity access and use are essential for effective policy-making and infrastructure planning in low-income, data-scarce regions. We present and validate a 1-km resolution electricity access dataset covering sub-Saharan Africa built on gridded nighttime light, population, and land cover data. Using light radiance probability distributions, we define electricity consumption tiers for urban and rural areas and estimate the by-tier split of consumers living in electrified areas. The approach provides new insight into the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of electricity access, and a measure of its quality beyond binary access. We find our estimates to be broadly consistent with recently published province- and national-level statistics. Moreover, we demonstrate consistency between the estimated electricity access quality indicators and survey-based consumption levels defined in accordance with the World Bank Multi-Tier Framework. The dataset is readily reproduced and updated using an open-access scientific computing framework. The data and approach can be applied for improving the assessment of least-cost electrification options, and examining links between electricity access and other sustainable development objectives.
Giacomo Falchetta; Shonali Pachauri; Simon Parkinson; Edward Byers. A high-resolution gridded dataset to assess electrification in sub-Saharan Africa. Scientific Data 2019, 6, 110 .
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Shonali Pachauri, Simon Parkinson, Edward Byers. A high-resolution gridded dataset to assess electrification in sub-Saharan Africa. Scientific Data. 2019; 6 (1):110.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Shonali Pachauri; Simon Parkinson; Edward Byers. 2019. "A high-resolution gridded dataset to assess electrification in sub-Saharan Africa." Scientific Data 6, no. 1: 110.
In sub-Saharan Africa, 160 million grid-connected electricity consumers live in countries where hydropower accounts for over 50% of total power supply. A warmer climate with more frequent and intense extremes could result in supply reliability issues. Here, (i) a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change is proposed, (ii) the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa is reviewed, and (iii) supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections is provided. We find that only few countries have pursued a diversification strategy away from hydropower over the last three decades, while others' expansion plans will reinforce the dependency. This will occur irrespective of the fact that some of the largest river basins have experienced a significant drying during the last century. Agreement is found on likely positive impacts of climate change on East Africa's hydropower potential, negative impacts in West and Southern Africa, and substantial uncertainty in Central Africa. Irrespective of the absolute change in gross technical potential, more frequent and intense extremes are projected. One possible paradigm to increase resilience and fulfil the pledges of the Paris Agreement is a synergetic planning and management of hydropower and variable renewables.
Giacomo Falchetta; David E.H.J. Gernaat; Julian Hunt; Sebastian Sterl. Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review. Journal of Cleaner Production 2019, 231, 1399 -1417.
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, David E.H.J. Gernaat, Julian Hunt, Sebastian Sterl. Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2019; 231 ():1399-1417.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; David E.H.J. Gernaat; Julian Hunt; Sebastian Sterl. 2019. "Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review." Journal of Cleaner Production 231, no. : 1399-1417.
Using remotely-sensed Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP)-VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imagery Radiometer Suite) night-time light (NTL) imagery between 2012 and 2016 and electricity consumption data from the IEA World Energy Balance database, we assemble a five-year panel dataset to evaluate if and to what extent NTL data are able to capture interannual changes in electricity consumption within different countries worldwide. We analyze the strength of the relationship both across World Bank income categories and between regional clusters, and we evaluate the heterogeneity of the link for different sectors of consumption. Our results show that interannual variation in nighttime light radiance is an effective proxy for predicting within-country changes in power consumption across all sectors, but only in lower-middle income countries. The result is robust to different econometric specifications. We discuss the key reasons behind this finding. The regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle-East and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbeans, and East Asia and the Pacific render a significant outcome, while changes in Europe, North America and South Asia are not successfully predicted by NTL. The designed methodological steps to process the raw data and the findings of the analysis improve the design and application of predictive models for electricity consumption based on NTL at different spatio-temporal scales.
Giacomo Falchetta; Michel Noussan. Interannual Variation in Night-Time Light Radiance Predicts Changes in National Electricity Consumption Conditional on Income-Level and Region. Energies 2019, 12, 456 .
AMA StyleGiacomo Falchetta, Michel Noussan. Interannual Variation in Night-Time Light Radiance Predicts Changes in National Electricity Consumption Conditional on Income-Level and Region. Energies. 2019; 12 (3):456.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Falchetta; Michel Noussan. 2019. "Interannual Variation in Night-Time Light Radiance Predicts Changes in National Electricity Consumption Conditional on Income-Level and Region." Energies 12, no. 3: 456.
This short open access book investigates the role of renewable energy in East Africa to provide policy-relevant inputs for the achievement of a cost-effective electrification process in the region. For each country, the authors review the current situation in the domestic power sector, adopt a GIS-based approach to plot renewable energy resources potential, and review currently planned projects and projects under development, as well as the key domestic renewables regulations. Based on such information, least-cost 100% electrification scenarios by 2030 are then modelled and comparative results over the required capacity additions and investment are reported and discussed. The authors also inquire into some of the key technological, economic, policy, cooperation, and financing challenges to the development of a portfolio of renewables to promote energy access in a sustainable way, including a discussion of the challenges and opportunities that might stem from the interaction between local RE potential and natural gas resources currently under development in the region. To conclude, policy recommendations based on the book’s results and targeted at international cooperation and development institutions, local policymakers, and private stakeholders in the region are elaborated.
Manfred Hafner; Simone Tagliapietra; Giacomo Falchetta; Giovanni Occhiali. Renewables for Energy Access and Sustainable Development in East Africa. Understanding the Bigger Energy Picture 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleManfred Hafner, Simone Tagliapietra, Giacomo Falchetta, Giovanni Occhiali. Renewables for Energy Access and Sustainable Development in East Africa. Understanding the Bigger Energy Picture. 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleManfred Hafner; Simone Tagliapietra; Giacomo Falchetta; Giovanni Occhiali. 2019. "Renewables for Energy Access and Sustainable Development in East Africa." Understanding the Bigger Energy Picture , no. : 1.