Kazakhstan strives to obtain Universal Health Coverage (UHC) by using health technology assessment (HTA) for determining their health benefit package. This paper reports on employing evidence-informed deliberative processes (EDPs), a practical and stepwise approach to enhance legitimate health benefit package design in Kazakhstan. Methods: The Ministry of Health of Kazakhstan approved the operationalization and application of EDPs during March 2019 and December 2020. We used a combination of desk research, conducting HTA, online surveys as well as a face-to-face workshop in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, and two online workshops to prioritize 25 selected health technologies. During the latter, we tested two alternative approaches to prioritization: quantitative multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and the use of decision rules. Results: For each of the HTA reports, evidence summaries were developed according to the decision criteria (safety, social priority disease, severity of disease, effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, level of evidence, financial risk protection and budget impact). When appraising the evidence, the advisory committee preferred using quantitative MCDA, and only when this would result in any controversy could decision rules be applied. Conclusions: Despite several challenges, including a partial disruption because of the COVID-19 pandemic, implementation of the process will likely play a key role in determining an evidence-informed and transparent health benefit package.

Background and Aims: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) remains a leading cause of mortality worldwide, with lipid abnormalities playing a central role in disease development. While the causal role of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in ASCVD is well-established, the long-term population impact of combined lipid profiles, particularly the HDL-C/LDL-C ratio, remains less clearly quantified. This study aimed to estimate the lifetime burden of cardiovascular outcomes associated with different lipid risk profiles using a patient-level simulation framework. Methods: The authors analyzed projected lifetime ASCVD events across four HDL-C/LDL-C risk strata, ranging from low (≥0.45) to very high (<0.25), using the National Health Model Database of Projected and Estimated Outcomes (NHM-DPEO)—a digital twin of national healthcare systems built from multiple data sources, including national health and demographic statistics and estimates from the relevant literature. The framework is structured as a patient-level simulation model that projects individual health trajectories over a lifetime horizon. Model outputs were assessed for plausibility by comparison with published epidemiological estimates. Results: The NHM simulation revealed a strong, graded relationship between lipid profiles and cardiovascular survival. Life expectancy declined from 80.2 years in the lowest risk group (HDL-C/LDL-C ≥ 0.45) to 63.0 years in the very-high-risk group (HDL-C/LDL-C < 0.25), a reduction of 17.2 years, with 13.7 fewer QALYs. Similarly, participants with LDL-C > 5.0 mmol/L had a life expectancy 13.4 years shorter than those with LDL-C < 3.1 mmol/L. The burden of ASCVD increased exponentially with worsening lipid ratios: MI events rose from 5000 to 73,090 per 100,000 births, with onset in the highest risk group occurring as early as age 20. Ischaemic heart disease followed a similar pattern, showing up to 92% of events attributable to elevated lipid risk. While ischaemic stroke risk displayed a more complex pattern due to earlier MI mortality in high-risk groups, overall cardiovascular mortality and lifetime event burden were dominated by LDL-driven disease. These findings demonstrate that sustained LDL-C reduction and balanced HDL-C/LDL-C ratios confer substantial survival benefits across both sexes and all age groups. Conclusions: This study shows that lipid balance has a decisive influence on cardiovascular survival. Sustained LDL-C reduction and favourable HDL-C/LDL-C ratios markedly extend life expectancy and delay the onset of MI and IHD. The magnitude of this survival benefit highlights the need for early and continuous lipid control as a cornerstone of ASCVD prevention. The NHM quantifies these lifetime effects, offering valuable insights for targeted strategies that improve both longevity and quality of life.