The demise of amphibians?: Rapid spread of disease is a hazard in our interconnected world. The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis was identified in amphibian populations about 20 years ago and has caused death and species extinction at a global scale. Scheele et al. found that the fungus has caused declines in amphibian populations everywhere except at its origin in Asia (see the Perspective by Greenberg and Palen). A majority of species and populations are still experiencing decline, but there is evidence of limited recovery in some species. The analysis also suggests some conditions that predict resilience. Science , this issue p. 1459 ; see also p. 1386

Systematic assessments of species extinction risk at regular intervals are necessary for informing conservation action^1,2. Ongoing developments in taxonomy, threatening processes and research further underscore the need for reassessment^3,4. Here we report the findings of the second Global Amphibian Assessment, evaluating 8,011 species for the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species. We find that amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate class (40.7% of species are globally threatened). The updated Red List Index shows that the status of amphibians is deteriorating globally, particularly for salamanders and in the Neotropics. Disease and habitat loss drove 91% of status deteriorations between 1980 and 2004. Ongoing and projected climate change effects are now of increasing concern, driving 39% of status deteriorations since 2004, followed by habitat loss (37%). Although signs of species recoveries incentivize immediate conservation action, scaled-up investment is urgently needed to reverse the current trends.

Panzootic chytrid fungus out of Asia: Species in the fungal genus Batrachochytrium are responsible for severe declines in the populations of amphibians globally. The sources of these pathogens have been uncertain. O'Hanlon et al. used genomics on a panel of more than 200 isolates to trace the source of the frog pathogen B. dendrobatidis to a hyperdiverse hotspot in the Korean peninsula (see the Perspective by Lips). Over the past century, the trade in amphibian species has accelerated, and now all lineages of B. dendrobatidis occur in traded amphibians; the fungus has become ubiquitous and is diversifying rapidly. Science , this issue p. 621 ; see also p. 604

The amphibian fungal disease chytridiomycosis, which affects species across all continents, recently emerged as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Yet, many aspects of the basic biology and epidemiology of the pathogen,Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd), are still unknown, such as when and from where didBdemerge and what is its true ecological niche? Here, we review the ecology and evolution ofBdin the Americas and highlight controversies that make this disease so enigmatic. We explore factors associated with variance in severity of epizootics focusing on the disease triangle of host susceptibility, pathogen virulence, and environment. Reevaluating the causes of the panzootic is timely given the wealth of data onBdprevalence across hosts and communities and the recent discoveries suggesting co‐evolutionary potential of hosts andBd. We generate a new species distribution model forBdin the Americas based on over 30,000 records and suggest a novel future research agenda. Instead of focusing on pathogen “hot spots,” we need to identify pathogen “cold spots” so that we can better understand what limits the pathogen's distribution. Finally, we introduce the concept of “the Ghost of Epizootics Past” to discuss expected patterns in postepizootic host communities.

Aim  Amphibian chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is associated with global amphibian population declines and species extinctions. Current evidence indicates that the pathogen has recently spread globally from an enzootic focus, with Xenopus spp. (family Pipidae) in South Africa having been identified as a likely source. The aim of this study was to investigate further the likelihood of African Xenopus spp. as the original source of Bd.Location  We examined 665 museum specimens of 20 species of African and South American pipid frogs collected between 1844 and 1994 and held in the collection of the Natural History Museum, London.Methods  Skin brushings taken from adult amphibians and brushings from the mouthparts, lips and developing hind limbs of larval pipid frogs were examined for the presence of Bd using real‐time PCR.Results  We found six cases of Bd infection in three Xenopus spp. (from Africa), but none of the South American pipids was positive, although only 45 South American frogs were available for examination. The earliest case of Bd infection was in a specimen of Xenopus fraseri collected from Cameroon in 1933. A consistently low prevalence of infection over time indicates that a historical equilibrium existed between Xenopus spp. and Bd infection in Africa.Main conclusions  Our results suggest that Bd infection was present in Xenopus spp. across sub‐Saharan Africa by the 1930s, providing additional support for the ‘out of Africa’ hypothesis. If this hypothesis is correct, it strengthens the argument for stringent control of human‐assisted movements of amphibians and other wildlife world‐wide to minimize the likelihood of pathogen introduction and disease emergence that can threaten species globally. Our findings help inform species selection for conservation in the face of the current Bd pandemic and also guide future research directions for selecting Bd isolates for sequencing and virulence testing.

The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host–parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, statistical and mathematical modelling to explore the dynamics of the apparently stableRhinoderma darwinii–Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd) system. Our results indicate that Bd-induced population extirpation may occur even in the absence of epidemics and where parasite prevalence is relatively low. These empirical findings are consistent with previous theoretical predictions showing that highly pathogenic parasites are able to regulate host populations even at extremely low prevalence, highlighting that disease threats should be investigated as a cause of population declines even in the absence of an overt increase in mortality.