Through drug exposure, a rare, transient transcriptional program characterized by high levels of expression of known resistance drivers can get ‘burned in’, leading to the selection of cells endowed with a transcriptional drug resistance and thus more chemoresistant cancers. Therapies that target signalling molecules that are mutated in cancers can often have substantial short-term effects, but the emergence of resistant cancer cells is a major barrier to full cures1,2. Resistance can result from secondary mutations3,4, but in other cases there is no clear genetic cause, raising the possibility of non-genetic rare cell variability5,6,7,8,9,10,11. Here we show that human melanoma cells can display profound transcriptional variability at the single-cell level that predicts which cells will ultimately resist drug treatment. This variability involves infrequent, semi-coordinated transcription of a number of resistance markers at high levels in a very small percentage of cells. The addition of drug then induces epigenetic reprogramming in these cells, converting the transient transcriptional state to a stably resistant state. This reprogramming begins with a loss of SOX10-mediated differentiation followed by activation of new signalling pathways, partially mediated by the activity of the transcription factors JUN and/or AP-1 and TEAD. Our work reveals the multistage nature of the acquisition of drug resistance and provides a framework for understanding resistance dynamics in single cells. We find that other cell types also exhibit sporadic expression of many of these same marker genes, suggesting the existence of a general program in which expression is displayed in rare subpopulations of cells.

Inside individual cells, expression of genes is inherently stochastic and manifests as cell-to-cell variability or noise in protein copy numbers. Since proteins half-lives can be comparable to the cell-cycle length, randomness in cell-division times generates additional intercellular variability in protein levels. Moreover, as many mRNA/protein species are expressed at low-copy numbers, errors incurred in partitioning of molecules between two daughter cells are significant. We derive analytical formulas for the total noise in protein levels when the cell-cycle duration follows a general class of probability distributions. Using a novel hybrid approach the total noise is decomposed into components arising from i) stochastic expression; ii) partitioning errors at the time of cell division and iii) random cell-division events. These formulas reveal that random cell-division times not only generate additional extrinsic noise, but also critically affect the mean protein copy numbers and intrinsic noise components. Counter intuitively, in some parameter regimes, noise in protein levels can decrease as cell-division times become more stochastic. Computations are extended to consider genome duplication, where transcription rate is increased at a random point in the cell cycle. We systematically investigate how the timing of genome duplication influences different protein noise components. Intriguingly, results show that noise contribution from stochastic expression is minimized at an optimal genome-duplication time. Our theoretical results motivate new experimental methods for decomposing protein noise levels from synchronized and asynchronized single-cell expression data. Characterizing the contributions of individual noise mechanisms will lead to precise estimates of gene expression parameters and techniques for altering stochasticity to change phenotype of individual cells. Inside individual cells, gene products often occur at low molecular counts and are subject to considerable stochastic fluctuations (noise) in copy numbers over time. An important consequence of noisy expression is that the level of a protein can vary considerably even among genetically identical cells exposed to the same environment. Such non-genetic phenotypic heterogeneity is physiologically relevant and critically influences diverse cellular processes. In addition to noise sources inherent in gene product synthesis, recent experimental studies have uncovered additional noise mechanisms that critically effect expression. For example, the time within the cell cycle when a gene duplicates, and the time taken to complete cell cycle are governed by random processes. The key contribution of this work is development of novel mathematical results quantifying how cell cycle-related noise sources combine with stochastic expression to drive intercellular variability in protein molecular counts. Derived formulas lead to many counterintuitive results, such as increasing randomness in the timing of cell division can lower noise in the level of a protein. Finally, these results inform experimental strategies to systematically dissect the contributions of different noise sources in the expression of a gene of interest.

How exponentially growing cells maintain size homeostasis is an important fundamental problem. Recent single-cell studies in prokaryotes have uncovered the adder principle, where cells add a fixed size (volume) from birth to division, irrespective of their size at birth. To mechanistically explain the adder principle, we consider a timekeeper protein that begins to get stochastically expressed after cell birth at a rate proportional to the volume. Cell-division time is formulated as the first-passage time for protein copy numbers to hit a fixed threshold. Consistent with data, the model predicts that the noise in division timing increases with size at birth. Intriguingly, our results show that the distribution of the volume added between successive cell-division events is independent of the newborn cell size. This was dramatically seen in experimental studies, where histograms of the added volume corresponding to different newborn sizes collapsed on top of each other. The model provides further insights consistent with experimental observations: the distribution of the added volume when scaled by its mean becomes invariant of the growth rate. In summary, our simple yet elegant model explains key experimental findings and suggests a mechanism for regulating both the mean and fluctuations in cell-division timing for controlling size.

Inside individual cells, stochastic expression drives random fluctuations in gene product copy numbers, which corrupts functioning of both natural and synthetic genetic circuits. Dynamic models of genetic circuits are formulated stochastically using the chemical master equation framework. Since obtaining probability distributions can be computationally expensive in these models, noise is typically investigated through lower-order statistical moments (mean, variance, correlation, skewness, etc.) of mRNA/proteins levels. However, due to the nonlinearities in genetic circuits, this moment dynamics is typically not closed, in the sense that the time derivative of the lower-order statistical moments depends on high-order moments. Moment equations are closed by expressing higher-order moments as nonlinear functions of lower-order moments, a technique commonly referred to as moment closure. We provide a new moment closure scheme for studying stochastic dynamics of genetic circuits, where genes randomly toggle between transcriptionally active and inactive states. The method is based on conditioning protein levels on active states of genes and then expressing higher-order moments as functions of lower-order conditional moments. The conditional closure scheme is illustrated on different circuit motifs and found to outperform existing closure techniques. Rapid computation of stochasticity through closure methods will enable improved characterization and design of synthetic circuits that exhibit robust performance in spite of noisy expression of underlying genes.

In the stochastic description of biochemical reaction systems, the time evolution of statistical moments for species population counts is described by a linear dynamical system. However, except for some ideal cases (such as zero- and first-order reaction kinetics), the moment dynamics is underdetermined as lower-order moments depend upon higher-order moments. Here, we propose a novel method to find exact lower and upper bounds on stationary moments for a given arbitrary system of biochemical reactions. The method exploits the fact that statistical moments of any positive-valued random variable must satisfy some constraints that are compactly represented through the positive semidefiniteness of moment matrices. Our analysis shows that solving moment equations at steady state in conjunction with constraints on moment matrices provides exact lower and upper bounds on the moments. These results are illustrated by three different examples—the commonly used logistic growth model, stochastic gene expression with auto-regulation and an activator–repressor gene network motif. Interestingly, in all cases the accuracy of the bounds is shown to improve as moment equations are expanded to include higher-order moments. Our results provide avenues for development of approximation methods that provide explicit bounds on moments for nonlinear stochastic systems that are otherwise analytically intractable.