Unsafe behavior among air traffic controllers is a significant causal factor in civil aviation safety incidents. To explore the risks and pathways associated with controller-induced aviation accidents, this study develops an analytical model of controller unsafe behavior based on association rules and fault tree Bayesian networks. First, the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) was applied to identify and categorize aviation incident reports attributed to controller errors. Next, association rule algorithms were employed to uncover potential associations between controller unsafe behaviors and related risk factors, and a fault tree Bayesian network (FT-BN) model of controller unsafe behaviors was constructed based on these associations. The results revealed that the most likely unsafe behaviors were: improper allocation of aircraft spacing (30.5%), failure to take necessary intervention measures (28.4%), and improper transfer of control (27.8%). Backward analysis of the FT-BN indicated that improper allocation of aircraft spacing was most likely triggered by failure to provide adequate controller training, failure to take necessary intervention measures was most often caused by forgotten information, and improper transfer of control was most frequently associated with controller fatigue and failure to put risk management efforts in place. This study provides an important framework for the analysis and evaluation of controller behavior management and offers key insights for improving air traffic safety.

The escalating complexity of airport surface operations challenges traditional risk quantification methods. Conventional linear models often fail to capture the non-linear interactions within sociotechnical systems. While hybrid System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) and Bayesian Network (BN) models provide an alternative, existing integrations are frequently constrained by ad hoc structural translations and rare-event data sparsity. To address these methodological limitations, this study proposes an enhanced STPA-BN framework. A formalized mapping mechanism (M1–M4) translates qualitative STPA scenarios into a BN topology to quantify non-linear causal dependencies across environmental precursors, operator cognitive states, unsafe control actions, and systemic hazards. Parameterization is achieved via a logic-guided strategy, fusing historical incident data mining with deterministic physical constraints to correct rare-event probabilities. The framework is validated through a reconstruction of the 2023 Austin–Bergstrom runway incursion incident. Results indicate that under low visibility and degraded surveillance, incursion probability escalates to 86%. Sensitivity analysis reveals that while restoring surveillance infrastructure reduces collision risk by ~13%, communication compliance improvements prove insufficient in sensory-deprived environments. These findings quantitatively demonstrate that administrative controls cannot substitute for robust engineering safeguards in complex operations.

Runway incursions (RIs) have emerged as a major threat to airport surface safety, driven by the coupled influence of human, equipment, environmental, and management factors. Conventional assessment methods struggle to simultaneously capture the fuzziness of expert linguistic judgment and the randomness of operational conditions. This study proposes an integrated DEMATEL–Cloud–TOPSIS framework for runway incursion risk assessment and validates it at Chengdu Tianfu International Airport. A hierarchical indicator system comprising 24 indicators across four dimensions—Human (H), Equipment (M), Environment (E), and Management (G)—was constructed from 90 RI cases collected between 2018 and 2023. DEMATEL quantified inter-indicator causal dependencies and DEMATEL-derived weights; the Cloud model translated linguistic expert judgments into digital characteristics (Ex, En, He); and TOPSIS produced relative closeness coefficients for risk ranking. Human, equipment, and environmental risks are all at a medium-risk, while management risk is at a low-risk, but significant differences still exist. Management achieved the highest closeness ($C_i$ = 0.6322) and Environment the lowest ($C_i$ = 0.5096). At the indicator level, ATC Instruction Accuracy (H1) exhibited the greatest operational maturity ($C_i$ = 0.9119), whereas Unclear Crew Coordination (H6) showed the lowest relative closeness ($C_i$ = 0.0156), followed by Aircraft Equipment (M5) ($C_i$ = 0.0195). Meanwhile, Runway Configuration Complexity (E2) remained a weak structural factor within the Environmental dimension ($C_i$ = 0.1502). The framework provides an interpretable, quantitative basis for targeted safety management at complex hub airports.

Runway incursions remain a major threat to airport surface safety, and effective prevention depends on the accurate identification of causal risk factors and their interaction mechanisms. However, existing studies have mainly focused on isolated risk factors or static causal relationships, offering limited insight into the hierarchical structure and dynamic propagation of runway incursion risk in complex operational environments. To address this gap, this study proposes a quantitative framework for runway incursion risk analysis by integrating grounded theory and complex network theory. Published runway incursion cases in the Chinese civil aviation system from 2022 to 2025 were systematically analyzed through open coding, axial coding, and selective coding, resulting in a hierarchical indicator system comprising five main categories, twelve subcategories, and 112 risk indicators. Based on this system, a runway incursion causal network was constructed to characterize the causal interdependencies among risk factors. Node importance was evaluated using a TOPSIS-based multi-criteria method integrating multiple network metrics, and a load-distribution-based propagation mechanism was introduced to quantify the risk propagation probability and risk propagation intensity of each node. The results indicate that insufficient night lighting (N99), taxi-route memory errors (N14), ambiguous controller instructions (N1), and excessive controller workload (N10) exhibit relatively high risk propagation probability and risk propagation intensity, indicating their critical roles in the evolution and cascading propagation of runway incursion risk. These findings demonstrate that the proposed framework can effectively capture both the structural importance and propagation characteristics of causal risk factors. Therefore, this study provides quantitative support for understanding runway incursion risk evolution and for developing targeted prevention strategies and post-incident response measures to improve runway safety management.

With the increasing complexity of wildfire emergency response, the aerial emergency response system is imposing increasing demands on both safety and decision rationality of takeoff and landing site selection. Site selection decisions are influenced by multi-dimensional factors, including geographical location, meteorological factors, and operational safety considerations, resulting in a pronounced coupling of multiple factors in the decision-making process. However, existing studies primarily focus on spatial suitability evaluation or technical implementation, often relying on predefined indicator systems and independence assumptions, while lacking a systematic characterization of the influencing factor system and its interrelationships in takeoff and landing site selection. To address this gap, this study proposes a novel structured decision-making framework to systematically analyze and optimize the selection of takeoff and landing sites for bucket firefighting helicopters in wildfire aerial emergency response scenarios. First, a procedural grounded theory approach is employed to systematically identify the influencing factors associated with site selection, thereby constructing a traceable decision-making factor system. Second, fuzzy DEMATEL is applied to model the causal relationships and structural interdependencies among these factors. Finally, a cumulative contribution rate based on centrality is introduced to screen and optimize the decision indicators, resulting in a refined set of key decision indicators. The results reveal the structural roles of different influencing factors in site selection, reduce the reliance on experience-driven judgment, and reconceptualize the problem from traditional indicator weighting and ranking into a structured decision-making process involving multi-factor coupling. This provides systematic decision support for takeoff and landing site selection in wildfire aerial emergency response and establishes a foundation for subsequent spatial suitability analysis and case-based validation. Furthermore, the results are consistent with expert experience and practical operational constraints, indicating the potential applicability of the proposed method in real-world decision-making.

Wildfires in plateau and mountainous regions are increasingly destructive, often disrupting ground transportation networks and severely constraining emergency logistics, while unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) remain limited by payload capacity. To address this challenge, this study proposes an air–ground collaborative emergency material dispatch method for dynamic, time-varying wildfire environments. A multi-layer spatiotemporal network model is developed by incorporating key uncertainties, including fire spread and meteorological fluctuations, into dynamic parameters, and a multi-objective mixed-integer programming framework is established to jointly optimize emergency response time, total dispatch cost, and rescue fairness. To solve the resulting high-dimensional dynamic rescheduling problem, a Fast Ant Colony Optimization-Genetic Algorithm (FACO-GA) integrated with a rolling horizon mechanism is designed. Simulation results under Level 1–10 dynamic perturbations show that, compared with conventional standalone algorithms (GA and ACO), the proposed method demonstrates markedly better robustness and computational efficiency, reducing the extreme average rescheduling response time to 6.80 s, while maintaining a Hypervolume (Hv) retention rate of 96.30% and limiting the Spacing (Sp) change rate to 4.15%. These findings indicate that the proposed approach can effectively overcome computational bottlenecks and provide an adaptive decision-support framework for emergency logistics dispatch in complex wildfire scenarios. Furthermore, comprehensive ablation studies and sensitivity analyses validate the structural necessity of the rolling horizon and ACO modules, ensuring the algorithm’s parameter robustness under extreme stochastic perturbations.