Ground-dwelling pheasants are vital indicators of forest ecosystem health. Understanding their distribution and response to climate change is crucial for regional biodiversity conservation. Based on 97,000 camera-days of infrared monitoring from 2019 to 2022 in Huzhou, China, we analyzed the spatial patterns and niche overlap of five pheasant species, including the first class national protected animal Elliot’s Pheasant (Syrmaticus ellioti), using MaxEnt modeling and Schoener’s D index. Results showed the following: (1) Pheasants in Huzhou exhibited distinct vertical gradients, with Elliot’s Pheasant restricted primarily to mid-mountain forests (200–600 m) in western Anji. (2) Iso-thermality and winter thermal limits were the primary drivers of its distribution. (3) Niche analysis revealed intense competitive pressure; Elliot’s Pheasant habitat was largely encompassed by dominant species like the Silver Pheasant (Lophura nycthemera), showing a high overlap (D = 0.642) with the Koklass Pheasant (Pucrasia macrolopha). (4) By 2050, its suitable habitat is projected to shrink by 84.6% (from 1085.7 to 118.8 km²) and shift eastward. These findings highlight the high climate sensitivity and competitive vulnerability of Elliot’s Pheasant. We recommend prioritizing micro-habitat maintenance in mid-mountain zones and proactively establishing ecological corridors between Anji and Deqing to mitigate habitat loss and displacement.