The confirmation of farmland rights would have a great impact on the welfare of farmers in China. Taking Chinese farmers as the research object, the relationship between farmland rights confirmation, farmland transfer and the welfare of farmers was studied by adopting the propensity score matching method (PSM) and logistic model. The result showed that: (1) The confirmation of farmland rights could improve the welfare of farmers. The dominant factors that affected the impact of the confirmation of farmland rights included family net income, medical insurance, self-health evaluation, difficulty of land financing, stability of land management rights, the difficulty of employment, satisfaction with circulation prices, and the improvement of neighborhood relations. (2) Implementing the confirmation of farmland rights could improve the welfare of farmers, and there were significant differences between farmers. The value of the welfare of farmers who had been transferred out was higher than that of farmers who had been transferred in. (3) After implementing the confirmation of farmland rights, the welfare of farmers would be improved by the net income of the household, the stability of land management rights and the improvement of neighborhood relations, while the welfare of farmers would be hindered from continuous improvement by the difficulty of employment, and satisfaction with circulation prices had opposite effects on the welfare of farmers who had transferred in or out. Based on these results, the suggestions put forward include building a price mechanism of effective circulation, utilizing differentiated skill training, and improving various measurements to show the advantages for welfare of the confirmation of farmland rights.

Farmers’ land transfer-out decisions involve weighing benefits against risks. However, existing studies tend to examine the separate effects of livelihood capital or risk perception on land transfer, overlooking whether and how risk-bearing capacity mediates the relationship between livelihood capital and transfer-out decisions. Moreover, most research treats land transfer-out as a simple binary choice (transfer or not), ignoring that farmers also decide to whom to transfer—a choice that affects both risk and return. This study investigates the effects of livelihood capital and risk-bearing capacity on these decisions, drawing on 2021 China Land Economy Survey data. Logistic regression and mediation models are employed to assess both direct and indirect impacts. The results indicate that natural and financial capital represent the most binding constraints on farmers’ livelihood capital. Higher levels of livelihood capital increase the likelihood of land transfer-out, with this effect operating partly through enhanced risk-bearing capacity. When selecting a transfer object, farmers with greater livelihood capital show a preference for village collectives over other farmers, cooperatives, or enterprises—a choice reflecting a trade-off between expected returns and perceived risks. Risk-bearing capacity partially mediates the effect of livelihood capital on the choice of village collectives and other farmers, but does not play a mediating role in transfers to enterprises or cooperatives. These findings suggest that policies designed to facilitate land transfer-out should consider not only the enhancement of farmers’ livelihood capital endowments but also the strengthening of their risk-bearing capacity. China still needs to strengthen the organizational framework for rural land transfers and improve the rights protection mechanisms for such transfers. This will reduce the risks associated with land transfer-out for farmers, encourage more proactive and market-oriented decision-making, and ultimately improve land transfer efficiency.