Despite high initial efficacy, targeted therapies eventually fail in advanced cancers, as tumors develop resistance and relapse. In contrast to the substantial body of research on the molecular mechanisms of resistance, understanding of how resistance evolves remains limited. Using an experimental model of ALK positive NSCLC, we explored the evolution of resistance to different clinical ALK inhibitors. We found that resistance can originate from heterogeneous, weakly resistant subpopulations with variable sensitivity to different ALK inhibitors. Instead of the commonly assumed stochastic single hit (epi) mutational transition, or drug-induced reprogramming, we found evidence for a hybrid scenario involving the gradual, multifactorial adaptation to the inhibitors through acquisition of multiple cooperating genetic and epigenetic adaptive changes. Additionally, we found that during this adaptation tumor cells might present unique, temporally restricted collateral sensitivities, absent in therapy naïve or fully resistant cells, suggesting the potential for new therapeutic interventions, directed against evolving resistance.

Although altered protocols that challenge conventional radiation fractionation have been tested in prospective clinical trials, we still have limited understanding of how to select the most appropriate fractionation schedule for individual patients. Currently, the prescription of definitive radiotherapy is based on the primary site and stage, without regard to patient-specific tumor or host factors that may influence outcome. We hypothesize that the proportion of radiosensitive proliferating cells is dependent on the saturation of the tumor carrying capacity. This may serve as a prognostic factor for personalized radiotherapy (RT) fractionation. We introduce a proliferation saturation index (PSI), which is defined as the ratio of tumor volume to the host-influenced tumor carrying capacity. Carrying capacity is as a conceptual measure of the maximum volume that can be supported by the current tumor environment including oxygen and nutrient availability, immune surveillance and acidity. PSI is estimated from two temporally separated routine pre-radiotherapy computed tomography scans and a deterministic logistic tumor growth model. We introduce the patient-specific pre-treatment PSI into a model of tumor growth and radiotherapy response, and fit the model to retrospective data of four non-small cell lung cancer patients treated exclusively with standard fractionation. We then simulate both a clinical trial hyperfractionation protocol and daily fractionations, with equal biologically effective dose, to compare tumor volume reduction as a function of pretreatment PSI. With tumor doubling time and radiosensitivity assumed constant across patients, a patient-specific pretreatment PSI is sufficient to fit individual patient response data (R2 = 0.98). PSI varies greatly between patients (coefficient of variation >128 %) and correlates inversely with radiotherapy response. For this study, our simulations suggest that only patients with intermediate PSI (0.45–0.9) are likely to truly benefit from hyperfractionation. For up to 20 % uncertainties in tumor growth rate, radiosensitivity, and noise in radiological data, the absolute estimation error of pretreatment PSI is <10 % for more than 75 % of patients. Routine radiological images can be used to calculate individual PSI, which may serve as a prognostic factor for radiation response. This provides a new paradigm and rationale to select personalized RT dose-fractionation.

Despite the fact that the local immunological microenvironment shapes the prognosis of colorectal cancer, immunotherapy has shown no benefit for the vast majority of colorectal cancer patients. A better understanding of the complex immunological interplay within the microenvironment is required. In this study, we utilized wet lab migration experiments and quantitative histological data of human colorectal cancer tissue samples (n = 20) including tumor cells, lymphocytes, stroma, and necrosis to generate a multiagent spatial model. The resulting data accurately reflected a wide range of situations of successful and failed immune surveillance. Validation of simulated tissue outcomes on an independent set of human colorectal cancer specimens (n = 37) revealed the model recapitulated the spatial layout typically found in human tumors. Stroma slowed down tumor growth in a lymphocyte-deprived environment but promoted immune escape in a lymphocyte-enriched environment. A subgroup of tumors with less stroma and high numbers of immune cells showed high rates of tumor control. These findings were validated using data from colorectal cancer patients (n = 261). Low-density stroma and high lymphocyte levels showed increased overall survival (hazard ratio 0.322, P = 0.0219) as compared with high stroma and high lymphocyte levels. To guide immunotherapy in colorectal cancer, simulation of immunotherapy in preestablished tumors showed that a complex landscape with optimal stroma permeabilization and immune cell activation is able to markedly increase therapy response in silico. These results can help guide the rational design of complex therapeutic interventions, which target the colorectal cancer microenvironment. Cancer Res; 77(22); 6442–52. ©2017 AACR.

It remains unclear how localized radiotherapy for cancer metastases can occasionally elicit a systemic antitumor effect, known as the abscopal effect, but historically, it has been speculated to reflect the generation of a host immunotherapeutic response. The ability to purposefully and reliably induce abscopal effects in metastatic tumors could meet many unmet clinical needs. Here, we describe a mathematical model that incorporates physiologic information about T-cell trafficking to estimate the distribution of focal therapy–activated T cells between metastatic lesions. We integrated a dynamic model of tumor–immune interactions with systemic T-cell trafficking patterns to simulate the development of metastases. In virtual case studies, we found that the dissemination of activated T cells among multiple metastatic sites is complex and not intuitively predictable. Furthermore, we show that not all metastatic sites participate in systemic immune surveillance equally, and therefore the success in triggering the abscopal effect depends, at least in part, on which metastatic site is selected for localized therapy. Moreover, simulations revealed that seeding new metastatic sites may accelerate the growth of the primary tumor, because T-cell responses are partially diverted to the developing metastases, but the removal of the primary tumor can also favor the rapid growth of preexisting metastatic lesions. Collectively, our work provides the framework to prospectively identify anatomically defined focal therapy targets that are most likely to trigger an immune-mediated abscopal response and therefore may inform personalized treatment strategies in patients with metastatic disease. Cancer Res; 76(5); 1009–18. ©2016 AACR.

Classical mathematical models of tumor growth have shaped our understanding of cancer and have broad practical implications for treatment scheduling and dosage. However, even the simplest textbook models have been barely validated in real world-data of human patients. In this study, we fitted a range of differential equation models to tumor volume measurements of patients undergoing chemotherapy or cancer immunotherapy for solid tumors. We used a large dataset of 1472 patients with three or more measurements per target lesion, of which 652 patients had six or more data points. We show that the early treatment response shows only moderate correlation with the final treatment response, demonstrating the need for nuanced models. We then perform a head-to-head comparison of six classical models which are widely used in the field: the Exponential, Logistic, Classic Bertalanffy, General Bertalanffy, Classic Gompertz and General Gompertz model. Several models provide a good fit to tumor volume measurements, with the Gompertz model providing the best balance between goodness of fit and number of parameters. Similarly, when fitting to early treatment data, the general Bertalanffy and Gompertz models yield the lowest mean absolute error to forecasted data, indicating that these models could potentially be effective at predicting treatment outcome. In summary, we provide a quantitative benchmark for classical textbook models and state-of-the art models of human tumor growth. We publicly release an anonymized version of our original data, providing the first benchmark set of human tumor growth data for evaluation of mathematical models.

It is well-recognized that solid tumors are genomically, anatomically, and physiologically heterogeneous. In general, more heterogeneous tumors have poorer outcomes, likely due to the increased probability of harboring therapy-resistant cells and regions. It is hypothesized that the genomic and physiologic heterogeneity are related, because physiologically distinct regions will exert variable selection pressures leading to the outgrowth of clones with variable genomic/proteomic profiles. To investigate this, methods must be in place to interrogate and define, at the microscopic scale, the cytotypes that exist within physiologically distinct subregions (“habitats”) that are present at mesoscopic scales. MRI provides a noninvasive approach to interrogate physiologically distinct local environments, due to the biophysical principles that govern MRI signal generation. Here, we interrogate different physiologic parameters, such as perfusion, cell density, and edema, using multiparametric MRI (mpMRI). Signals from six different acquisition schema were combined voxel-by-voxel into four clusters identified using a Gaussian mixture model. These were compared with histologic and IHC characterizations of sections that were coregistered using MRI-guided 3D printed tumor molds. Specifically, we identified a specific set of MRI parameters to classify viable-normoxic, viable-hypoxic, nonviable-hypoxic, and nonviable-normoxic tissue types within orthotopic 4T1 and MDA-MB-231 breast tumors. This is the first coregistered study to show that mpMRI can be used to define physiologically distinct tumor habitats within breast tumor models. Significance: This study demonstrates that noninvasive imaging metrics can be used to distinguish subregions within heterogeneous tumors with histopathologic correlation.