The China–Australia Route, which serves as the southern economic corridor of the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, bears great importance in safeguarding maritime transportation operations. This route plays a crucial role in ensuring the security and efficiency of such activities. To pre-assess the risks of this route, this paper presents a two-stage analytical framework that combines fault tree analysis and Bayesian network for evaluating the occurrence likelihood of risk of transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the China–Australia Route. In the first stage, our study involved the identification of 22 risk influencing factors drawn from a comprehensive review of pertinent literature and an in-depth analysis of accident reports. These identified factors were then utilized as basic events to construct a fault tree. Later, we applied an expert comprehensive evaluation method and fuzzy set theory, and by introducing voting mechanism into expert opinions, the prior probability of basic events was calculated. In the second stage, a fault tree was transformed into a Bayesian network, which overcame the deficiency that the structure and conditional probability table of the Bayesian network find difficult to determine. Consequently, the employment of the Bayesian network architecture was applied to forecast the likelihood of LNG maritime transport along the China–Australia shipping pathway. The probability importance and critical importance of each basic event was calculated through an importance analysis. The development of a risk matrix was achieved by considering the two primary dimensions of frequency and impact, which were subsequently utilized to categorize all relevant risk factors into high, moderate, or low risk categories. This allowed for effective risk mitigation and prevention strategies to be implemented. Finally, assuming that the final risk occurs, we calculated the posterior probability of the basic event to diagnose the risk. The research findings indicate that the primary reasons for the risk of transporting LNG on the China–Australia Route are the impact of natural forces and epidemics, piracy and terrorist attacks, and the risk of LNG explosions. In the final section, we provide suggestions and risk control measures based on the research results to reduce the occurrence of risks.

Piracy has long plagued the maritime industry, and has led to significant losses of life and goods. The risk of maritime piracy is largely predicted at present based on static analysis. This does not suitably address practical needs because the behavior and activities of maritime pirates are dynamic. Selecting an appropriate strategy for reducing the risk of piracy under a dynamic environment featuring uncertainty thus remains a key challenge. In this study, we propose a two-stage technique for order of preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) model based on the Bayesian network (BN). A data-driven BN is constructed in the first stage of the proposed method to identify the causal relationships influencing the behaviors of pirates. The second stage involves calculating a decision matrix of the strategies by using TOPSIS, where this enhances the strength of risk prediction and dynamic diagnosis by the BN. The main novelty of the proposed model is that it can provide quantitative measurements of strategies for reducing the probability of piracy in a dynamic environment. It provides a decision-making tool for researchers, shipping companies, and national navies to assess the risk of piracy and select effective measures to reduce its likelihood.