Contemporary data for causes of vision impairment and blindness form an important basis of recommendations in public health policies. Refreshment of the Global Vision Database with recently published data sources permitted modelling of cause of vision loss data from 1990 to 2015, further disaggregation by cause, and forecasts to 2020. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we analysed published and unpublished population-based data for the causes of vision impairment and blindness from 1980 to 2014. We identified population-based studies published before July 8, 2014, by searching online databases with no language restrictions (MEDLINE from Jan 1, 1946, and Embase from Jan 1, 1974, and the WHO Library Database). We fitted a series of regression models to estimate the proportion of moderate or severe vision impairment (defined as presenting visual acuity of 14% of blindness) as causes in the high-income subregions. Blindness and vision impairment at all ages in 2015 due to diabetic retinopathy (odds ratio 2·52 [1·48-3·73]) and cataract (1·21 [1·17-1·25]) were more common among women than among men, whereas blindness and vision impairment due to glaucoma (0·71 [0·57-0·86]) and corneal opacity (0·54 [0·43-0·66]) were more common among men than among women, with no sex difference related to age-related macular degeneration (0·91 [0·70-1·14]). The number of people affected by the common causes of vision loss has increased substantially as the population increases and ages. Preventable vision loss due to cataract (reversible with surgery) and refractive error (reversible with spectacle correction) continue to cause most cases of blindness and moderate or severe vision impairment in adults aged 50 years and older. A large scale-up of eye care provision to cope with the increasing numbers is needed to address avoidable vision loss. Brien Holden Vision Institute.

Global and regional prevalence estimates for blindness and vision impairment are important for the development of public health policies. We aimed to provide global estimates, trends, and projections of global blindness and vision impairment. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based datasets relevant to global vision impairment and blindness that were published between 1980 and 2015. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate the prevalence (by age, country, and sex), in 2015, of mild visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/12 to 6/18 inclusive), moderate to severe visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/18 to 3/60 inclusive), blindness (presenting visual acuity worse than 3/60), and functional presbyopia (defined as presenting near vision worse than N6 or N8 at 40 cm when best-corrected distance visual acuity was better than 6/12). Globally, of the 7·33 billion people alive in 2015, an estimated 36·0 million (80% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·9-65·4) were blind (crude prevalence 0·48%; 80% UI 0·17-0·87; 56% female), 216·6 million (80% UI 98·5-359·1) people had moderate to severe visual impairment (2·95%, 80% UI 1·34-4·89; 55% female), and 188·5 million (80% UI 64·5-350·2) had mild visual impairment (2·57%, 80% UI 0·88-4·77; 54% female). Functional presbyopia affected an estimated 1094·7 million (80% UI 581·1-1686·5) people aged 35 years and older, with 666·7 million (80% UI 364·9-997·6) being aged 50 years or older. The estimated number of blind people increased by 17·6%, from 30·6 million (80% UI 9·9-57·3) in 1990 to 36·0 million (80% UI 12·9-65·4) in 2015. This change was attributable to three factors, namely an increase because of population growth (38·4%), population ageing after accounting for population growth (34·6%), and reduction in age-specific prevalence (-36·7%). The number of people with moderate and severe visual impairment also increased, from 159·9 million (80% UI 68·3-270·0) in 1990 to 216·6 million (80% UI 98·5-359·1) in 2015. There is an ongoing reduction in the age-standardised prevalence of blindness and visual impairment, yet the growth and ageing of the world's population is causing a substantial increase in number of people affected. These observations, plus a very large contribution from uncorrected presbyopia, highlight the need to scale up vision impairment alleviation efforts at all levels. Brien Holden Vision Institute.

Objectives: To describe the epidemiology and an aetiological model of ocular surface squamous neoplasia (OSSN) in Africa.Methods: Systematic and non‐systematic review methods were used. Incidence was obtained from the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and the reference lists of articles retrieved. Meta‐analyses were conducted using a fixed‐effects model for HIV and cigarette smoking and random effects for human papilloma virus (HPV).Results: The incidence of OSSN is highest in the Southern Hemisphere (16° South), with the highest age‐standardised rate (ASR) reported from Zimbabwe (3.4 and 3.0 cases/year/100 000 population for males and females, respectively). The mean ASR worldwide is 0.18 and 0.08 cases/year/100 000 among males and females, respectively. The risk increases with exposure to direct daylight (2–4 h, OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.2–2.4 and ≥5 h OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1–3.1) and outdoor occupations (OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.1–2.6). Meta‐analysis also shows a strong association with HIV (6 studies: OR = 6.17, 95% CI: 4.83–7.89) and HPV (7 studies: OR = 2.64, 95% CI: 1.27–5.49) but not cigarette smoking (2 studies: OR = 1.40, 95% CI: 0.94–2.09). The effect of atopy, xeroderma pigmentosa and vitamin A deficiency is unclear.Conclusions: Africa has the highest incidence of OSSN in the world, where males and females are equally affected, unlike other continents where male disease predominates. African women probably have increased risk due to their higher prevalence of HIV and HPV infections. As the survival of HIV‐infected people increases, and given no evidence that anti‐retroviral therapy (ART) reduces the risk of OSSN, the incidence of OSSN may increase in coming years.

The incidence of ocular surface squamous neoplasia (OSSN) is strongly associated with solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, HIV and human papilloma virus (HPV). Africa has the highest incidence rates in the world. Most lesions occur at the limbus within the interpalpebral fissure particularly the nasal sector. The nasal limbus receives the highest intensity of sunlight. Limbal epithelial crypts are concentrated nasally and contain niches of limbal epithelial stem cells in the basal layer. It is possible that these are the progenitor cells in OSSN. OSSN arises in the basal epithelial cells spreading towards the surface which resembles the movement of corneo-limbal stem cell progeny before it later invades through the basement membrane below. UV radiation damages DNA producing pyrimidine dimers in the DNA chain. Specific CC → TT base pair dimer transformations of the p53 tumour-suppressor gene occur in OSSN allowing cells with damaged DNA past the G1-S cell cycle checkpoint. UV radiation also causes local and systemic photoimmunosuppression and reactivates latent viruses such as HPV. The E7 proteins of HPV promote proliferation of infected epithelial cells via the retinoblastoma gene while E6 proteins prevent the p53 tumour suppressor gene from effecting cell-cycle arrest of DNA-damaged and infected cells. Immunosuppression from UV radiation, HIV and vitamin A deficiency impairs tumour immune surveillance allowing survival of aberrant cells. Tumour growth and metastases are enhanced by; telomerase reactivation which increases the number of cell divisions a cell can undergo; vascular endothelial growth factor for angiogenesis and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) that destroy the intercellular matrix between cells. Despite these potential triggers, the disease is usually unilateral. It is unclear how HPV reaches the conjunctiva.

Aims: To determine if prospective monitoring influences cataract surgical outcomes in east Africa. Methods: A prospective observational study of all routine extracapsular cataract extractions with posterior chamber lens implants carried out at Kikuyu Eye Unit, Kenya, between 1 January 1999 and 31 December 1999. Results: Out of 1845 eligible eyes 1800 were included in the study. Two months' follow up was available in 67.2% of patients. The proportion achieving a good outcome increased steadily from 77.1% in the first quarter to 89.4% in the fourth quarter (χ² for trend, p<0.001). There was no change in the incidence of operative complications; however, the proportion of patients achieving a good visual outcome following vitreous loss increased from 47.2% in the first 6 months to 71.0% in the last 6 months (χ² p<0.05). Of the eyes with poor outcome (best corrected acuity <6/60 at 2 months) half were due to pre-existing eye diseases. The proportion of patients with known ocular comorbidity decreased from 10.2% in the first quarter to 5.9% in the fourth quarter (χ² for trend, p<0.05). Poor outcome was associated with age over 80 years, known diabetes, preoperative bilateral blindness, any ocular comorbidity, and intraoperative vitreous loss. Conclusions: This study demonstrates improvement in visual outcome results after cataract surgery over a 1 year period. Monitoring of outcomes appears to be associated with a change in surgeons' attitudes, leading to greater emphasis on appropriate case selection, better management of surgical complications, and improved visual outcomes.

Aim To estimate the magnitude, temporal trends and subregional variation in the prevalence of blindness, and moderate/severe vision impairment (MSVI) in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods A systematic review was conducted of published and unpublished population-based surveys as part of the Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors and Injuries Study 2010. The prevalence of blindness and vision impairment by country and subregion was estimated. Results In sub-Saharan Africa, 52 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria. The estimated age-standardised prevalence of blindness decreased by 32% from 1.9% (95% CI 1.5% to 2.2%) in 1990 to 1.3% (95% CI 1.1% to 1.5%) in 2010 and MSVI by 25% from 5.3% (95% CI 0.2% to 0.3%) to 4.0% (95% CI 0.2% to 0.3%) over that time. However, there was a 16% increase in the absolute numbers with blindness and a 28% increase in those with MSVI. The major causes of blindness in 2010 were; cataract 35%, other/unidentified causes 33.1%, refractive error 13.2%, macular degeneration 6.3%, trachoma 5.2%, glaucoma 4.4% and diabetic retinopathy 2.8%. In 2010, age-standardised prevalence of MSVI in Africa was 3.8% (95% CI 3.1% to 4.7%) for men and 4.2% (95% CI 3.6% to 5.3%) for women with subregional variations from 4.1% (95% CI 3.3% to 5.4%) in West Africa to 2.0% (95% CI 1.5% to 3.3%) in southern Africa for men; and 4.7% (95% CI 3.9% to 6.0%) in West Africa to 2.3% (95% CI 1.7% to 3.8%) in southern Africa for women. Conclusions The age-standardised prevalence of blindness and MSVI decreased substantially from 1990 to 2010, although there was a moderate increase in the absolute numbers with blindness or MSVI. Significant subregional and gender disparities exist.