In the face of global climate change and the collision of consumer preferences towards green and low-carbon, businesses need to accelerate the transition to sustainable development to achieve long-term growth. Companies must raise significant funds to support this transition and manage high market risk. The existing research on green innovation within supply chains often overlooks market risks, particularly those associated with incomplete information. Hence, this paper considers a two-echelon supply chain system composed of a manufacturer and a retailer. Manufacturers are willing to carry out green innovation and make a single product for sale in the consumer market with green preferences. However, innovation is risky due to the uncertainty in the sales volume of green products. In addition, the manufacturer may lack internal capital to invest in the innovation activities and may seek external financial resources, e.g., bank loans or retail prepayment financing. Hence, the manufacturer and retailer must decide which financial option to adopt. The results show that when the market risk is high, the supply chain members tend to make conservative decisions, no matter which financial modes they choose. However, with the robust optimization approach, the manufacturer and the retailer may earn a higher profit when the market risk is high. When the prepayment rate and bank loan interest rate are equal, regardless of the market risk, the manufacturer’s optimal decision is to choose prepayment financing from the retailer. However, when the prepayment rate is higher than the bank loan interest rate, there is no dominant strategy for the manufacturer to choose.

As the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals advance rapidly, grasping the development status and differences in carbon neutrality across China’s provincial regions is crucial for interpreting the regional collaborative governance pattern under the circular economy initiative and promoting responsible production and consumption transformation. This paper constructs a research framework for the comprehensive evaluation and collaborative strategy of carbon neutrality. Using the Entropy Weight-TOPSIS, K-means clustering, and obstacle factor diagnosis models, the development status of carbon neutrality in 30 Chinese provinces is revealed from the perspectives of green economy, green politics, green culture, green society, and green ecology. Regional differences and critical obstacle factors are identified. Guided by the “Five-sphere Integrated Plan,” this study refines the carbon neutrality evaluation framework and fills an existing gap in the literature regarding the diagnosis of heterogeneous obstacles. It provides empirical evidence for the coordinated advancement of carbon neutrality. We find that (1) China’s overall carbon neutrality capability is relatively weak, showing a spatial pattern of “high in the east and low in the west” and a Matthew effect of “the strong getting stronger and the weak getting weaker.” The development levels of the subsystems vary markedly, with excellent and underperforming subsystems coexisting across different provinces. (2) The 30 provinces are classified as comprehensive leading, balanced-developing, policy-economy dual-driven, ecology-driven, and potential-oriented. (3) Overall, the key obstacle factors are low-carbon transportation, technology, and philosophy, yet these factors vary across the groups. To foster collaborative carbon neutrality promotion, policies should be implemented in the future based on different characteristics.