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Association between spatial gait parameters and adverse health outcomes in the elderly has not been sufficiently studied. The goal of this study is to evaluate whether the stride length or the step width predict falls, functional loss and mortality. We conducted a prospective cohort study on a probabilistic sample of 431 noninstitutionalized, older-than-64-years subjects living in Spain, who were followed-up for five years. In the baseline visit, spatial gait parameters were recorded along with several control variables, with special emphasis on known medical conditions, strength, balance and functional and cognitive capacities. In the follow-up calls, vital status, functional status and number of falls from last control were recorded. We found that a normalized-to-height stride length shorter than 0.52 predicted recurrent falls in the next 6 months with 93% sensitivity and 53% specificity (AUC: 0.72), and in the next 12 months with 81% sensitivity and 57% specificity (AUC: 0.67). A normalized stride length <0.5 predicted functional loss at 12 months with a sensitivity of 79.4% and specificity of 65.6% (AUC: 0.75). This predictive capacity remained independent after correcting for the rest of risk factors studied. Step-with was not clearly related to functional loss or falls. Both shorter normalized stride length (OR1.56; AUC: 0.62; p < 0.05) and larger step width (OR1.42; AUC: 0.62; p < 0.05) were associated with risk of death at 60 months; however, none of them remained as independent predictor of death, after correcting for other risk factors. In summary, spatial gait parameters may be risk markers for adverse outcomes in the elderly. Step length is independently associated with functional loss and falls at one year, after correction for numerous known risk factors.

Journal of Medical Internet Research - International Scientific Journal for Medical Research, Information and Communication on the Internet

Background: Functional status in older people is a dynamic situation, which makes it necessary to evaluate functional capacity at different times to determinate their prognostic value. Objective: To examine the association between functional status (baseline and change after acute illness) and mortality and functional changes at 1 year. Methods: Hospital-based prospective longitudinal cohort study of all patients over 65 years old, admitted for multidisciplinary treatment of functional impairment after acute illness in a medium-stay unit (post-acute geriatric unit) of a teaching hospital ascribed to the Spanish National Health Service from Spain during 15 consecutive months. Functional status (Barthel Index, BI) was assessed prior to the acute illness, at admission in a post-acute unit, at discharge and 1 year later. At admission, other variables were collected: sociodemographic, main diagnostic for hospitalization (stroke, orthopedic process, or deconditioning), serum albumin, comorbidity (Charlson Index), cognitive status (Pfeiffer´s Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire). In order to analyze mortality 1 year after discharge, a Cox regression analysis was performed. Results: Three hundred and sixty-nine patients consituted the study population, mean age was 80.74 years (SD 7.4), 66.6% were female and 1 year after discharge mortality was 20%. In the multivariate analysis, variables associated with a higher 1-year mortality were age (HR 1.06; 95% CI = 1.00–1.07) male gender (HR 2.11; 95% CI = 1.26–3.55), worse prior functional status (HR 0.98; 95% CI = 0.96–0.99), and higher functional loss in BI at admission (HR 1.02; 95% CI = 1.00–1.04). On the other hand, a greater functional gain in BI at discharge was associated with a lower 1-year mortality (HR 0.98; 95% CI = 0.96–0.99). Conclusions: The main functional gain obtained after treatment in a multidisciplinary post-acute geriatric unit is independently associated with a reduction in long-term mortality. In addition to baseline functional status and after acute illness, the subsequent potential recovery is very important to predict poor long-term outcomes.

Older adults’ perception of their own risk of fall has never been included into screening tools. The goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of questions on subjects’ self-perception of their own risk of fall. This prospective study was conducted on a probabilistic sample of 772 Spanish community-dwelling older adults, who were followed-up for a one year period. At a baseline visit, subjects were asked about their recent history of falls (question 1: “Have you fallen in the last 6 months?”), as well as on their perception of their own risk of fall by using two questions (question 2: “Do you think you may fall in the next few months?” possible answers: yes/no; question 3: “What is the probability that you fall in the next few months?” possible answers: low/intermediate/high). The follow-up consisted of quarterly telephone calls, where the number of falls occurred in that period was recorded. A short questionnaire built with questions 1 and 3 showed 70% sensitivity (95% CI: 56%-84%), 72% specificity (95% CI: 68%-76%) and 0.74 area under the ROC curve (95% CI: 0.66–0.82) for prediction of repeated falls in the subsequent year. The estimation of one’s own risk of fall has predictive validity for the occurrence of repeated falls in older adults. A short questionnaire including a question on perception of one’s own risk of fall and a question on the recent history of falls had good predictive validity.