Extreme weather events exacerbated by global warming pose severe threats to urban safety, underscoring the urgent need for highly accurate precipitation nowcasting. Short-term local heavy precipitation remains a particular challenge for traditional forecasting due to its suddenness and high disaster potential. To address this, we propose a multi-modal fusion framework that integrates ground-based GNSS-derived Precipitable Water Vapor (GNSS-PWV) and ground-based Radar Composite Reflectivity (CR). While GNSS-PWV keenly captures pre-convective atmospheric water vapor accumulation, radar CR details the morphological distribution of hydrometeors. Specifically, we developed the Spatio-Temporal Enhanced Attention Swin U-Net (STEA-Swin) model to synergize these heterogeneous datasets over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. High-precision PWV was retrieved from 250 Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) using the dual-frequency ionosphere-free Precise Point Positioning (PPP) method, achieving a strong correlation (>0.97) with ERA5 reanalysis data. Validated against measured data from the 2025 flood season, the STEA-Swin model achieved a Probability of Detection (POD) of 0.68 for torrential rain events at a +1 h forecast lead time. Notably, compared to single-source models, the Critical Success Index (CSI) and POD for torrential rain improved by 18.5% and 21.5%, respectively. These findings demonstrate that coupling deep learning with ground-based GNSS-derived atmospheric thermodynamic information can significantly enhance early warning capabilities, providing a promising technical approach for regional disaster prevention and climate resilience.

BeiDou navigation satellite system (BDS) precise point positioning (PPP)-B2b has significant potential for application in meteorological fields, such as standalone water vapor monitoring in depopulated area without Internet. In this study, the practical ability of water vapor monitoring using the BDS PPP-B2b service is illustrated through a continuously operated water vapor monitoring system in Wuhan, China, with a 25-day experiment in 2025. Original observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and BDS are collected and processed in the near real-time (NRT) mode using ephemeris from the PPP-B2b service. Precipitable water vapor PWV monitored with B2b ephemeris are evaluated with radiosonde and ERA5 reanalysis, respectively. Taking PWV from radiosonde observations as the reference, RMS of PWV based on B2b ephemeris varies from 3.71 to 4.66 mm for different satellite combinations. While those values are with a range from 3.95 to 4.55 mm when compared with ERA5 reanalysis. These values are similar to those processed with the real-time ephemeris from the China Academy of Science (CAS). In general, this study demonstrates that the practical accuracy of water vapor monitored based on the BDS PPP-B2b service can meet the basic demand for operational meteorology for the first time. This will provide a scientific reference for its wide promotion to meteorological applications in the near future.

Accurate estimation of the weighted mean temperature (Tm) is essential for retrieving precipitable water vapor (PWV) from ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations. Machine learning (ML) techniques excel in modeling nonlinear relationships among Tm time series, station geographic coordinates, and surface meteorological parameters, and recent studies have demonstrated that ML and neural network models outperform conventional linear Tm models. However, the full potential of surface meteorological measurements at GNSS stations for high-precision Tm retrieval remains to be fully explored. This study develops regional Tm empirical models using two ML methods—random forest (RF) and Temporal Mixture of Experts with Sequential Attention (TMESA)—to generate reliable real-time Tm estimates and enhance the accuracy of operational GNSS-PWV retrievals over China. A traditional linear model is adopted as the baseline to evaluate the performance improvements of the proposed models. The models are trained and tested using 10-year (2014–2023) hourly ERA5-derived Tm products and in-situ surface pressure, temperature, and relative humidity from 2377 meteorological stations, with Tm diurnal variations, station coordinates, and day of year integrated as auxiliary predictive features. Validation is conducted using 2024 ERA5 reanalysis data and radiosonde profiles from 120 stations across China. Results show that the RF model yields a bias (RMSE) of −0.11 K (2.67 K) against ERA5 and −0.21 K (2.67 K) against radiosonde data, while the TMESA model achieves superior performance with bias (RMSE) of −0.02 K (2.34 K) and 0.09 K (2.46 K), respectively, whose performance levels comparable to state-of-the-art studies. Compared with the traditional linear model, the RF model reduces Tm RMSE by 32% against ERA5 and 25% against radiosonde data, while the TMESA model achieves reductions of 40% and 33%, respectively. These findings confirm that the proposed ML models can provide high-accuracy Tm estimates for reliable GNSS-PWV retrieval. Future work will focus on the operational application of these models for near-real-time GNSS-PWV estimation.