Large-scale disasters can result in chronic pollution of coastal environments with unanticipated and poorly quantified impacts, such as the reshaping of marine connectivity. A recent example is the collapse of the Fundão tailings dam in 2015, which released about 50 million m³ of mine waste into the Doce River, affecting one of Brazil’s largest estuarine–mangrove systems. Here, we combine a high-resolution CROCO hydrodynamic simulation with an individual-based Lagrangian model (Ichthyop) to track the dispersal of mangrove crab (Ucides cordatus) larvae from four estuaries along the southeastern Brazilian margin between 2022 and 2024. Trajectories crossing seasonal msPAF fields derived from in situ water-quality measurements were used to quantify larval exposure to contaminants from mine waste. These fields were based on measured concentrations of As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, V, Zn, and Al. Results show that surface shelf flow and mesoscale activity in the vicinity of the Doce River mouth contribute to offshore export of larvae, while the reef-dominated Abrolhos shelf promotes retention. Interannual variability alternates between long-distance export and local retention, associated with regional climate variability. Larval mortality rates caused by offshore advection and lethal temperature are high (65–75%). In addition to these modeled mortality sources, surviving cohorts frequently crossed areas with elevated msPAF values during transport, indicating potential exposure to metal(loid) mixtures. This suggests that the regional connectivity of U. cordatus is under chronic stress that likely compromises the integrity and resilience of coastal populations, since southern estuaries depend strongly on northern larval sources. The integration of Lagrangian simulations with in situ contaminant monitoring and spatially explicit exposure metrics demonstrates that transport pathways regulate not only connectivity among estuaries but also the duration and intensity of larval exposure to pollutants.

Large-scale disasters can result in chronic pollution of coastal environments with unanticipated and poorly quantified impacts, such as the reshaping of marine connectivity. A recent example is the collapse of the Fundão tailings dam in 2015 that released about 50 million m3 of mine waste into the Doce River, affecting one of Brazil’s largest estuarine–mangrove systems. Here, we combine a high-resolution CROCO hydrodynamic simulation with an individual-based Lagrangian model (Ichthyop) to track the dispersal of mangrove crab (Ucides cordatus) larvae from four estuaries along the southeastern Brazilian margin between 2022 and 2024. Trajectories crossing toxicity fields derived from in situ collections (msPAF, based on species sensitivity distributions) were used to quantify larval exposure to contaminants from mine waste. Results show that surface shelf flow and mesoscale activity in the vicinity of the Doce river mouth contribute to offshore export of larvae, while the reef-dominated Abrolhos shelf promotes retention. Interannual variability alternates between long-distance export and local retention, likely reflecting climate-driven anomalies such as ENSO. Larval mortality rates caused by offshore advection and lethal temperature are high (65–75%), with surviving cohorts frequently crossing high-contamination zones. This suggests that the regional connectivity of U. cordatus is under chronic stress that likely compromises the integrity and resilience of coastal populations, since southern estuaries depend strongly on northern larval sources. The integration of Lagrangian simulations with in-situ contaminant monitoring and spatially explicit exposure metrics demonstrate that transport pathways regulate not only connectivity among estuaries but also the duration and intensity of larval exposure to pollutants.