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Machine learning (ML) expands traditional data analysis and presents a range of opportunities in ecosystem service (ES) research, offering rapid processing of ‘big data’ and enabling significant advances in data description and predictive modelling. Descriptive ML techniques group data with little or no prior domain specific assumptions; they can generate hypotheses and automatically sort data prior to other analyses. Predictive ML techniques allow for the predictive modelling of highly non-linear systems where casual mechanisms are poorly understood, as is often the case for ES. We conducted a review to explore how ML is used in ES research and to identify and quantify trends in the different ML approaches that are used. We reviewed 308 peer-reviewed publications and identified that ES studies implemented machine learning techniques in data description (64%; n = 308) and predictive modelling (44%), with some papers containing both categories. Classification and Regression Trees were the most popular techniques (60%), but unsupervised learning techniques were also used for descriptive tasks such as clustering to group or split data without prior assumptions (19%). Whilst there are examples of ES publications that apply ML with rigour, many studies do not have robust or repeatable methods. Some studies fail to report model settings (43%) or software used (28%), and many studies do not report carrying out any form of model hyperparameter tuning (67%) or test model generalisability (59%). Whilst studies use ML to analyse very large and complex datasets, ES research is generally not taking full advantage of the capacity of ML to model big data (1138 medium number of data points; 13 median quantity of variables). There is great further opportunity to utilise ML in ES research, to make better use of big data and to develop detailed modelling of spatial-temporal dynamics that meet stakeholder demands.
Matthew Scowen; Ioannis N. Athanasiadis; James M. Bullock; Felix Eigenbrod; Simon Willcock. The current and future uses of machine learning in ecosystem service research. Science of The Total Environment 2021, 799, 149263 .
AMA StyleMatthew Scowen, Ioannis N. Athanasiadis, James M. Bullock, Felix Eigenbrod, Simon Willcock. The current and future uses of machine learning in ecosystem service research. Science of The Total Environment. 2021; 799 ():149263.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatthew Scowen; Ioannis N. Athanasiadis; James M. Bullock; Felix Eigenbrod; Simon Willcock. 2021. "The current and future uses of machine learning in ecosystem service research." Science of The Total Environment 799, no. : 149263.
Many assessments of ecosystem services (ESs; nature’s contribution to people
Simon Willcock; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Norman Dandy; James Bullock. High Spatial-Temporal Resolution Data across Large Scales Are Needed to Transform Our Understanding of Ecosystem Services. Land 2021, 10, 759 .
AMA StyleSimon Willcock, Javier Martinez-Lopez, Norman Dandy, James Bullock. High Spatial-Temporal Resolution Data across Large Scales Are Needed to Transform Our Understanding of Ecosystem Services. Land. 2021; 10 (7):759.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSimon Willcock; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Norman Dandy; James Bullock. 2021. "High Spatial-Temporal Resolution Data across Large Scales Are Needed to Transform Our Understanding of Ecosystem Services." Land 10, no. 7: 759.
Protected areas (PAs) are a key strategy to reverse global biodiversity declines, but they are under increasing pressure from anthropogenic activities and concomitant effects. Thus, the heterogeneous landscapes within PAs, containing a number of different habitats and ecosystem types, are in various degrees of disturbance. Characterizing habitats and ecosystems within the global protected area network requires large-scale monitoring over long time scales. This study reviews methods for the biophysical characterization of terrestrial PAs at a global scale by means of remote sensing (RS) and provides further recommendations. To this end, we first discuss the importance of taking into account the structural and functional attributes, as well as integrating a broad spectrum of variables, to account for the different ecosystem and habitat types within PAs, considering examples at local and regional scales. We then discuss potential variables, challenges and limitations of existing global environmental stratifications, as well as the biophysical characterization of PAs, and finally offer some recommendations. Computational and interoperability issues are also discussed, as well as the potential of cloud-based platforms linked to earth observations to support large-scale characterization of PAs. Using RS to characterize PAs globally is a crucial approach to help ensure sustainable development, but it requires further work before such studies are able to inform large-scale conservation actions. This study proposes 14 recommendations in order to improve existing initiatives to biophysically characterize PAs at a global scale.
Javier Martínez-López; Bastian Bertzky; Simon Willcock; Marine Robuchon; María Almagro; Giacomo Delli; Grégoire Dubois. Remote Sensing Methods for the Biophysical Characterization of Protected Areas Globally: Challenges and Opportunities. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 2021, 10, 384 .
AMA StyleJavier Martínez-López, Bastian Bertzky, Simon Willcock, Marine Robuchon, María Almagro, Giacomo Delli, Grégoire Dubois. Remote Sensing Methods for the Biophysical Characterization of Protected Areas Globally: Challenges and Opportunities. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2021; 10 (6):384.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJavier Martínez-López; Bastian Bertzky; Simon Willcock; Marine Robuchon; María Almagro; Giacomo Delli; Grégoire Dubois. 2021. "Remote Sensing Methods for the Biophysical Characterization of Protected Areas Globally: Challenges and Opportunities." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10, no. 6: 384.
To date, the provision of ecosystem services has largely been estimated based on spatial patterns of land cover alone, using benefit transfer analysis. Although it is increasingly being recognised that the distribution of the human population affects whether a potential service translates into a realised service, this misses key steps in the process and assumes that everyone accesses ecosystem services in the same way. Here we describe a conceptual approach to ecosystem services in terms of movement and flows. We highlight that ecosystem service flows can be broken down into ‘nature to people’ (the movement of nature towards beneficiaries) and ‘people to nature’ (the movement of beneficiaries towards nature). The former has been relatively well described. Here, we explore the latter by reviewing research on human migration, animal foraging and landscape connectivity. We assess if and how existing theories might be useful in describing how people seek out ecosystem services. We consider some of the ways in which flows of people to nature can be measured. Such measurements may reveal which movement theories best represent how people seek out and access ecosystem services. Overall, our review aims to improve the future modelling of ecosystem services by more explicitly considering how people access potential services and therefore realise them.
Rachel Dolan; James Bullock; Julia Jones; Ioannis Athanasiadis; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Simon Willcock. The Flows of Nature to People, and of People to Nature: Applying Movement Concepts to Ecosystem Services. Land 2021, 10, 576 .
AMA StyleRachel Dolan, James Bullock, Julia Jones, Ioannis Athanasiadis, Javier Martinez-Lopez, Simon Willcock. The Flows of Nature to People, and of People to Nature: Applying Movement Concepts to Ecosystem Services. Land. 2021; 10 (6):576.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRachel Dolan; James Bullock; Julia Jones; Ioannis Athanasiadis; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Simon Willcock. 2021. "The Flows of Nature to People, and of People to Nature: Applying Movement Concepts to Ecosystem Services." Land 10, no. 6: 576.
In 2006, the world’s population passed the threshold of being equally split between rural and urban areas. Since this point, urbanisation has continued, and the majority of the global population are now urban inhabitants. With this ongoing change, it is likely that the way people receive benefits from nature (ecosystem services; ES) has also evolved. Environmental theory suggests that rural residents depend directly on their local environment (conceptualised as green-loop systems), whereas urban residents have relatively indirect relationships with distant ecosystems (conceptualised as red-loop systems). Here, we evaluate this theory using survey data from >3000 households in and around Hyderabad, India. Controlling for other confounding socioeconomic variables, we investigate how flows of 10 ES vary across rural, peri-urban and urban areas. For most of the ES we investigated, we found no statistical differences in the levels of direct or indirect use of an ecosystem, the distance to the ecosystem, nor the quantities of ES used between rural and urban residents (p > 0.05). However, our results do show that urban people themselves often travel shorter distances than rural people to access most ES, likely because improved infrastructure in urban areas allows for the transport of ES from wider ecosystems to the locality of the beneficiaries’ place of residence. Thus, while we find some evidence to support red-loop–green-loop theory, we conclude that ES flows across the rural-urban spectrum may show more similarities than might be expected. As such, the impact of future urbanisation on ES flows may be limited, because many flows in both rural and urban areas have already undergone globalisation.
Indunee Welivita; Simon Willcock; Amy Lewis; Dilshaad Bundhoo; Tim Brewer; Sarah Cooper; Kenneth Lynch; Sneha Mekala; Prajna Mishra; Kongala Venkatesh; Dolores Rey Vicario; Paul Hutchings. Evidence of Similarities in Ecosystem Service Flow across the Rural-Urban Spectrum. Land 2021, 10, 430 .
AMA StyleIndunee Welivita, Simon Willcock, Amy Lewis, Dilshaad Bundhoo, Tim Brewer, Sarah Cooper, Kenneth Lynch, Sneha Mekala, Prajna Mishra, Kongala Venkatesh, Dolores Rey Vicario, Paul Hutchings. Evidence of Similarities in Ecosystem Service Flow across the Rural-Urban Spectrum. Land. 2021; 10 (4):430.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIndunee Welivita; Simon Willcock; Amy Lewis; Dilshaad Bundhoo; Tim Brewer; Sarah Cooper; Kenneth Lynch; Sneha Mekala; Prajna Mishra; Kongala Venkatesh; Dolores Rey Vicario; Paul Hutchings. 2021. "Evidence of Similarities in Ecosystem Service Flow across the Rural-Urban Spectrum." Land 10, no. 4: 430.
Summary Much previous research shows that safe disposal of human waste has a positive impact on human wellbeing, while preventing the degradation of ecosystems. However, to date, the role that ecosystems themselves play in treating human waste has been largely neglected. We conceptualize the role nature plays in treating human waste—acting as a pipeline and/or treatment plant. We estimate that nature is treating ~41.7 million tons of human waste per year worldwide, a service worth at least 4.4 ± 3.0 billion USD year−1. We demonstrate the opportunities and challenges of quantifying these "sanitation ecosystem services," using 48 cities across the globe as a worked example. In highlighting this, we are not marginalizing the vital role of engineered infrastructure, but instead are promoting better understanding of how engineered and natural infrastructure interact within a circular economy. This is a promising route for further research and may allow adaptive design and management, reducing costs, and improving effectiveness and sustainability.
Simon Willcock; Alison Parker; Charlotte Wilson; Tim Brewer; Dilshaad Bundhoo; Sarah Cooper; Kenneth Lynch; Sneha Mekala; Prajna Paramita Mishra; Dolores Rey; Indunee Welivita; Kongala Venkatesh; Paul Hutchings. Nature provides valuable sanitation services. One Earth 2021, 4, 192 -201.
AMA StyleSimon Willcock, Alison Parker, Charlotte Wilson, Tim Brewer, Dilshaad Bundhoo, Sarah Cooper, Kenneth Lynch, Sneha Mekala, Prajna Paramita Mishra, Dolores Rey, Indunee Welivita, Kongala Venkatesh, Paul Hutchings. Nature provides valuable sanitation services. One Earth. 2021; 4 (2):192-201.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSimon Willcock; Alison Parker; Charlotte Wilson; Tim Brewer; Dilshaad Bundhoo; Sarah Cooper; Kenneth Lynch; Sneha Mekala; Prajna Paramita Mishra; Dolores Rey; Indunee Welivita; Kongala Venkatesh; Paul Hutchings. 2021. "Nature provides valuable sanitation services." One Earth 4, no. 2: 192-201.
Despite mobile livestock grazing being widely recognized as one of the most viable and sustainable land uses for semi-arid savanna, which can deliver clear wildlife conservation benefits, the levels of pastoral sedentarization and transitions to agricultural livelihoods continue to rise in many pastoral communities across the world. Using questionnaire interviews with community elders, our study assessed changing trends in livestock grazing, wildlife conservation, and sedentarization levels from the 1960s to the present day across three savannas in southern Kenya. Our study identified the drivers of land uses and land subdivision and the implications of land use change on savanna ecology. Over the last half century, there has been a 30% decline in livestock grazing land in southern Kenya due to the expansion of land for agriculture and wildlife conservation. Despite the decline, livestock grazing remains the preferred land use in subdivided and privatized lands. Pastoralist land used for wildlife conservation was perceived to be higher (30%) in southwestern Kenya compared to southeastern Kenya (16%), despite their geographical proximity. These historical insights provide useful lessons for maintaining space for wildlife, diversifying livelihoods, and increasing the resilience of pastoralists in the process of transitioning from traditional subsistence to market economies and the threats of social and ecological dislocation.
Rebecca W. Kariuki; David Western; Simon Willcock; Robert Marchant. Assessing Interactions between Agriculture, Livestock Grazing and Wildlife Conservation Land Uses: A Historical Example from East Africa. Land 2021, 10, 46 .
AMA StyleRebecca W. Kariuki, David Western, Simon Willcock, Robert Marchant. Assessing Interactions between Agriculture, Livestock Grazing and Wildlife Conservation Land Uses: A Historical Example from East Africa. Land. 2021; 10 (1):46.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRebecca W. Kariuki; David Western; Simon Willcock; Robert Marchant. 2021. "Assessing Interactions between Agriculture, Livestock Grazing and Wildlife Conservation Land Uses: A Historical Example from East Africa." Land 10, no. 1: 46.
Many ecosystem services (ES) models exist to support sustainable development decisions. However, most ES studies use only a single modelling framework and, because of a lack of validation data, rarely assess model accuracy for the study area. In line with other research themes which have high model uncertainty, such as climate change, ensembles of ES models may better serve decision-makers by providing more robust and accurate estimates, as well as provide indications of uncertainty when validation data are not available. To illustrate the benefits of an ensemble approach, we highlight the variation between alternative models, demonstrating that there are large geographic regions where decisions based on individual models are not robust. We test if ensembles are more accurate by comparing the ensemble accuracy of multiple models for six ES against validation data across sub-Saharan Africa with the accuracy of individual models. We find that ensembles are better predictors of ES, being 5.0–6.1% more accurate than individual models. We also find that the uncertainty (i.e. variation among constituent models) of the model ensemble is negatively correlated with accuracy and so can be used as a proxy for accuracy when validation is not possible (e.g. in data-deficient areas or when developing scenarios). Since ensembles are more robust, accurate and convey uncertainty, we recommend that ensemble modelling should be more widely implemented within ES science to better support policy choices and implementation.
Simon Willcock; Danny A.P. Hooftman; Ryan Blanchard; Terence P. Dawson; Thomas Hickler; Mats Lindeskog; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Belinda Reyers; Sophie M. Watts; Felix Eigenbrod; James M. Bullock. Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty. Science of The Total Environment 2020, 747, 141006 .
AMA StyleSimon Willcock, Danny A.P. Hooftman, Ryan Blanchard, Terence P. Dawson, Thomas Hickler, Mats Lindeskog, Javier Martinez-Lopez, Belinda Reyers, Sophie M. Watts, Felix Eigenbrod, James M. Bullock. Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty. Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 747 ():141006.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSimon Willcock; Danny A.P. Hooftman; Ryan Blanchard; Terence P. Dawson; Thomas Hickler; Mats Lindeskog; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Belinda Reyers; Sophie M. Watts; Felix Eigenbrod; James M. Bullock. 2020. "Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty." Science of The Total Environment 747, no. : 141006.
The terrestrial forest carbon pool is poorly quantified, in particular in regions with low forest inventory capacity. By combining multiple satellite observations of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter around the year 2010, we generated a global, spatially explicit dataset of above-ground forest biomass (dry mass, AGB) with a spatial resolution of 1 ha. Using an extensive database of 110,897 AGB measurements from field inventory plots, we show that the spatial patterns and magnitude of AGB are well captured in our map with the exception of regional uncertainties in high carbon stock forests with AGB > 250 Mg ha−1 where the retrieval was effectively based on a single radar observation. With a total global AGB of 522 Pg, our estimate of the terrestrial biomass pool in forests is lower than most estimates published in literature (426–571 Pg). Nonetheless, our dataset increases knowledge on the spatial distribution of AGB compared to the global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and highlights the impact of a country’s national inventory capacity on the accuracy of the biomass statistics reported to the FRA. We also reassessed previous remote sensing AGB maps, and identify major biases compared to inventory data, up to 120 % of the inventory value in dry tropical forests, in the sub-tropics and temperate zone. Because of the high level of detail and the overall reliability of the AGB spatial patterns, our global dataset of AGB is likely to have significant impacts on climate, carbon and socio-economic modelling schemes, and provides a crucial baseline in future carbon stock changes estimates. The dataset is available at: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.894711 (Santoro, 2018).
Maurizio Santoro; Oliver Cartus; Nuno Carvalhais; Danaë Rozendaal; Valerio Avitabilie; Arnan Araza; Sytze de Bruin; Martin Herold; Shaun Quegan; Pedro Rodríguez Veiga; Heiko Balzter; João Carreiras; Dmitry Schepaschenko; Mikhail Korets; Masanobu Shimada; Takuya Itoh; Álvaro Moreno Martínez; Jura Cavlovic; Roberto Cazzolla Gatti; Polyanna Da Conceição Bispo; Nasheta Dewnath; Nicolas Labrière; Jingjing Liang; Jeremy Lindsell; Edward T. A. Mitchard; Alexandra Morel; Ana Maria Pacheco Pascagaza; Casey M. Ryan; Ferry Slik; Gaia Vaglio Laurin; Hans Verbeeck; Arief Wijaya; Simon Willcock. The global forest above-ground biomass pool for 2010 estimated from high-resolution satellite observations. 2020, 2020, 1 -38.
AMA StyleMaurizio Santoro, Oliver Cartus, Nuno Carvalhais, Danaë Rozendaal, Valerio Avitabilie, Arnan Araza, Sytze de Bruin, Martin Herold, Shaun Quegan, Pedro Rodríguez Veiga, Heiko Balzter, João Carreiras, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Mikhail Korets, Masanobu Shimada, Takuya Itoh, Álvaro Moreno Martínez, Jura Cavlovic, Roberto Cazzolla Gatti, Polyanna Da Conceição Bispo, Nasheta Dewnath, Nicolas Labrière, Jingjing Liang, Jeremy Lindsell, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Alexandra Morel, Ana Maria Pacheco Pascagaza, Casey M. Ryan, Ferry Slik, Gaia Vaglio Laurin, Hans Verbeeck, Arief Wijaya, Simon Willcock. The global forest above-ground biomass pool for 2010 estimated from high-resolution satellite observations. . 2020; 2020 ():1-38.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Santoro; Oliver Cartus; Nuno Carvalhais; Danaë Rozendaal; Valerio Avitabilie; Arnan Araza; Sytze de Bruin; Martin Herold; Shaun Quegan; Pedro Rodríguez Veiga; Heiko Balzter; João Carreiras; Dmitry Schepaschenko; Mikhail Korets; Masanobu Shimada; Takuya Itoh; Álvaro Moreno Martínez; Jura Cavlovic; Roberto Cazzolla Gatti; Polyanna Da Conceição Bispo; Nasheta Dewnath; Nicolas Labrière; Jingjing Liang; Jeremy Lindsell; Edward T. A. Mitchard; Alexandra Morel; Ana Maria Pacheco Pascagaza; Casey M. Ryan; Ferry Slik; Gaia Vaglio Laurin; Hans Verbeeck; Arief Wijaya; Simon Willcock. 2020. "The global forest above-ground biomass pool for 2010 estimated from high-resolution satellite observations." 2020, no. : 1-38.
Maurizio Santoro; Oliver Cartus; Nuno Carvalhais; Danaë Rozendaal; Valerio Avitabilie; Arnan Araza; Sytze de Bruin; Martin Herold; Shaun Quegan; Pedro Rodríguez Veiga; Heiko Balzter; João Carreiras; Dmitry Schepaschenko; Mikhail Korets; Masanobu Shimada; Takuya Itoh; Álvaro Moreno Martínez; Jura Cavlovic; Roberto Cazzolla Gatti; Polyanna Da Conceição Bispo; Nasheta Dewnath; Nicolas Labrière; Jingjing Liang; Jeremy Lindsell; Edward T. A. Mitchard; Alexandra Morel; Ana Maria Pacheco Pascagaza; Casey M. Ryan; Ferry Slik; Gaia Vaglio Laurin; Hans Verbeeck; Arief Wijaya; Simon Willcock. Supplementary material to "The global forest above-ground biomass pool for 2010 estimated from high-resolution satellite observations". 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleMaurizio Santoro, Oliver Cartus, Nuno Carvalhais, Danaë Rozendaal, Valerio Avitabilie, Arnan Araza, Sytze de Bruin, Martin Herold, Shaun Quegan, Pedro Rodríguez Veiga, Heiko Balzter, João Carreiras, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Mikhail Korets, Masanobu Shimada, Takuya Itoh, Álvaro Moreno Martínez, Jura Cavlovic, Roberto Cazzolla Gatti, Polyanna Da Conceição Bispo, Nasheta Dewnath, Nicolas Labrière, Jingjing Liang, Jeremy Lindsell, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Alexandra Morel, Ana Maria Pacheco Pascagaza, Casey M. Ryan, Ferry Slik, Gaia Vaglio Laurin, Hans Verbeeck, Arief Wijaya, Simon Willcock. Supplementary material to "The global forest above-ground biomass pool for 2010 estimated from high-resolution satellite observations". . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Santoro; Oliver Cartus; Nuno Carvalhais; Danaë Rozendaal; Valerio Avitabilie; Arnan Araza; Sytze de Bruin; Martin Herold; Shaun Quegan; Pedro Rodríguez Veiga; Heiko Balzter; João Carreiras; Dmitry Schepaschenko; Mikhail Korets; Masanobu Shimada; Takuya Itoh; Álvaro Moreno Martínez; Jura Cavlovic; Roberto Cazzolla Gatti; Polyanna Da Conceição Bispo; Nasheta Dewnath; Nicolas Labrière; Jingjing Liang; Jeremy Lindsell; Edward T. A. Mitchard; Alexandra Morel; Ana Maria Pacheco Pascagaza; Casey M. Ryan; Ferry Slik; Gaia Vaglio Laurin; Hans Verbeeck; Arief Wijaya; Simon Willcock. 2020. "Supplementary material to "The global forest above-ground biomass pool for 2010 estimated from high-resolution satellite observations"." , no. : 1.
Addressing the lack of sanitation globally is a major global challenge with 700 million people still practicing open defecation. Circular Economy (CE) in the context of sanitation focuses on the whole sanitation chain which includes the provision of toilets, the collection of waste, treatment and transformation into sanitation-derived products including fertiliser, fuel and clean water. After a qualitative study from five case studies across India, covering different treatment technologies, waste-derived products, markets and contexts; this research identifies the main barriers and enablers for circular sanitation business models to succeed. A framework assessing the technical and social system changes required to enable circular sanitation models was derived from the case studies. Some of these changes can be achieved with increased enforcement, policies and subsidies for fertilisers, and integration of sanitation with other waste streams to increase its viability. Major changes such as the cultural norms around re-use, demographic shifts and soil depletion would be outside the scope of a single project, policy or planning initiative. The move to CE sanitation may still be desirable from a policy perspective but we argue that shifting to CE models should not be seen as a panacea that can solve the global sanitation crisis. Delivering the public good of safe sanitation services for all, whether circular or not, will continue to be a difficult task.
Adrian Mallory; Daniel Akrofi; Jenica Dizon; Sourav Mohanty; Alison Parker; Dolores Rey Vicario; Sharada Prasad; Indunee Welivita; Tim Brewer; Sneha Mekala; Dilshaad Bundhoo; Kenny Lynch; Prajna Mishra; Simon Willcock; Paul Hutchings. Evaluating the circular economy for sanitation: Findings from a multi-case approach. Science of The Total Environment 2020, 744, 140871 .
AMA StyleAdrian Mallory, Daniel Akrofi, Jenica Dizon, Sourav Mohanty, Alison Parker, Dolores Rey Vicario, Sharada Prasad, Indunee Welivita, Tim Brewer, Sneha Mekala, Dilshaad Bundhoo, Kenny Lynch, Prajna Mishra, Simon Willcock, Paul Hutchings. Evaluating the circular economy for sanitation: Findings from a multi-case approach. Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 744 ():140871.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAdrian Mallory; Daniel Akrofi; Jenica Dizon; Sourav Mohanty; Alison Parker; Dolores Rey Vicario; Sharada Prasad; Indunee Welivita; Tim Brewer; Sneha Mekala; Dilshaad Bundhoo; Kenny Lynch; Prajna Mishra; Simon Willcock; Paul Hutchings. 2020. "Evaluating the circular economy for sanitation: Findings from a multi-case approach." Science of The Total Environment 744, no. : 140871.
The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.
Martin J. P. Sullivan; Simon L. Lewis; Kofi Affum-Baffoe; Carolina Castilho; Flávia Costa; Aida Cuni Sanchez; Corneille E. N. Ewango; Wannes Hubau; Beatriz Marimon; Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza; Lan Qie; Bonaventure Sonké; Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez; Timothy R. Baker; Roel J. W. Brienen; Ted R. Feldpausch; David Galbraith; Manuel Gloor; Yadvinder Malhi; Shin-Ichiro Aiba; Miguel N. Alexiades; Everton C. Almeida; Edmar Almeida de Oliveira; Esteban Álvarez Dávila; Patricia Alvarez Loayza; Ana Andrade; Simone Aparecida Vieira; Luiz E. O. C. Aragão; Alejandro Araujo-Murakami; Eric J. M. M. Arets; Luzmila Arroyo; Peter Ashton; Gerardo Aymard C.; Fabrício B. Baccaro; Lindsay F. Banin; Christopher Baraloto; Plínio Barbosa Camargo; Jos Barlow; Jorcely Barroso; Jean-François Bastin; Sarah A. Batterman; Hans Beeckman; Serge K. Begne; Amy C. Bennett; Erika Berenguer; Nicholas Berry; Lilian Blanc; Pascal Boeckx; Jan Bogaert; Damien Bonal; Frans Bongers; Matt Bradford; Francis Q. Brearley; Terry Brncic; Foster Brown; Benoit Burban; José Luís Camargo; Wendeson Castro; Carlos Céron; Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro; Victor Chama Moscoso; Jerôme Chave; Eric Chezeaux; Connie J. Clark; Fernanda Coelho de Souza; Murray Collins; James A. Comiskey; Fernando Cornejo Valverde; Massiel Corrales Medina; Lola da Costa; Martin Dančák; Greta C. Dargie; Stuart Davies; Nallaret Davila Cardozo; Thales de Haulleville; Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros; Jhon Del Aguila Pasquel; Géraldine Derroire; Anthony Di Fiore; Jean-Louis Doucet; Aurélie Dourdain; Vincent Droissart; Luisa Fernanda Duque; Romeo Ekoungoulou; Fernando Elias; Terry Erwin; Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert; Sophie Fauset; Joice Ferreira; Gerardo Flores Llampazo; Ernest Foli; Andrew Ford; Martin Gilpin; Jefferson S. Hall; Keith C. Hamer; Alan C. Hamilton; David J. Harris; Terese B. Hart; Radim Hédl; Bruno Herault; Rafael Herrera; Niro Higuchi; Annette Hladik; Eurídice Honorio Coronado; Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco; Walter Huaraca Huasco; Kathryn J. Jeffery; Eliana Jimenez-Rojas; Michelle Kalamandeen; Marie Noël Kamdem Djuikouo; Elizabeth Kearsley; Ricardo Keichi Umetsu; Lip Khoon Kho; Timothy Killeen; Kanehiro Kitayama; Bente Klitgaard; Alexander Koch; Nicolas Labrière; William Laurance; Susan Laurance; Miguel E. Leal; Aurora Levesley; Adriano J. N. Lima; Janvier Lisingo; Aline P. Lopes; Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez; Tom Lovejoy; Jon C. Lovett; Richard Lowe; William E. Magnusson; Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte; Ângelo Gilberto Manzatto; Ben Hur Marimon; Andrew R. Marshall; Toby Marthews; Simone Matias De Almeida Reis; Colin Maycock; Karina Melgaço; Casimiro Mendoza; Faizah Metali; Vianet Mihindou; William Milliken; Edward T. A. Mitchard; Paulo S. Morandi; Hannah L. Mossman; Laszlo Nagy; Henrique Nascimento; David Neill; Reuben Nilus; Percy Núñez Vargas; Walter Palacios; Nadir Pallqui Camacho; Julie Peacock; Colin Pendry; Maria Cristina Peñuela Mora; Georgia C. Pickavance; John Pipoly; Nigel Pitman; Maureen Playfair; Lourens Poorter; John R. Poulsen; Axel Dalberg Poulsen; Richard Preziosi; Adriana Prieto; Richard B. Primack; Hirma Ramírez-Angulo; Jan Reitsma; Maxime Réjou-Méchain; Zorayda Restrepo Correa; Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa; Lily Rodriguez Bayona; Anand Roopsind; Agustín Rudas; Ervan Rutishauser; Kamariah Abu Salim; Rafael P. Salomão; Juliana Schietti; Douglas Sheil; Richarlly C. Silva; Javier Silva Espejo; Camila Silva Valeria; Marcos Silveira; Murielle Simo-Droissart; Marcelo Fragomeni Simon; James Singh; Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva; Clement Stahl; Juliana Stropp; Rahayu Sukri; Terry Sunderland; Martin Svátek; Michael D. Swaine; Varun Swamy; Hermann Taedoumg; Joey Talbot; James Taplin; David Taylor; Hans ter Steege; John Terborgh; Raquel Thomas; Sean C. Thomas; Armando Torres-Lezama; Peter Umunay; Luis Valenzuela Gamarra; Geertje van der Heijden; Peter van der Hout; Peter van der Meer; Mark van Nieuwstadt; Hans Verbeeck; Ronald Vernimmen; Alberto Vicentini; Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira; Emilio Vilanova Torre; Jason Vleminckx; Vincent Vos; Ophelia Wang; Lee J. T. White; Simon Willcock; John T. Woods; Verginia Wortel; Kenneth Young; Roderick Zagt; Lise Zemagho; Pieter A. Zuidema; Joeri A. Zwerts; Oliver L. Phillips. Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests. Science 2020, 368, 869 -874.
AMA StyleMartin J. P. Sullivan, Simon L. Lewis, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Carolina Castilho, Flávia Costa, Aida Cuni Sanchez, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Wannes Hubau, Beatriz Marimon, Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza, Lan Qie, Bonaventure Sonké, Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Timothy R. Baker, Roel J. W. Brienen, Ted R. Feldpausch, David Galbraith, Manuel Gloor, Yadvinder Malhi, Shin-Ichiro Aiba, Miguel N. Alexiades, Everton C. Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Esteban Álvarez Dávila, Patricia Alvarez Loayza, Ana Andrade, Simone Aparecida Vieira, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Eric J. M. M. Arets, Luzmila Arroyo, Peter Ashton, Gerardo Aymard C., Fabrício B. Baccaro, Lindsay F. Banin, Christopher Baraloto, Plínio Barbosa Camargo, Jos Barlow, Jorcely Barroso, Jean-François Bastin, Sarah A. Batterman, Hans Beeckman, Serge K. Begne, Amy C. Bennett, Erika Berenguer, Nicholas Berry, Lilian Blanc, Pascal Boeckx, Jan Bogaert, Damien Bonal, Frans Bongers, Matt Bradford, Francis Q. Brearley, Terry Brncic, Foster Brown, Benoit Burban, José Luís Camargo, Wendeson Castro, Carlos Céron, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Victor Chama Moscoso, Jerôme Chave, Eric Chezeaux, Connie J. Clark, Fernanda Coelho de Souza, Murray Collins, James A. Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Massiel Corrales Medina, Lola da Costa, Martin Dančák, Greta C. Dargie, Stuart Davies, Nallaret Davila Cardozo, Thales de Haulleville, Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros, Jhon Del Aguila Pasquel, Géraldine Derroire, Anthony Di Fiore, Jean-Louis Doucet, Aurélie Dourdain, Vincent Droissart, Luisa Fernanda Duque, Romeo Ekoungoulou, Fernando Elias, Terry Erwin, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Sophie Fauset, Joice Ferreira, Gerardo Flores Llampazo, Ernest Foli, Andrew Ford, Martin Gilpin, Jefferson S. Hall, Keith C. Hamer, Alan C. Hamilton, David J. Harris, Terese B. Hart, Radim Hédl, Bruno Herault, Rafael Herrera, Niro Higuchi, Annette Hladik, Eurídice Honorio Coronado, Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Walter Huaraca Huasco, Kathryn J. Jeffery, Eliana Jimenez-Rojas, Michelle Kalamandeen, Marie Noël Kamdem Djuikouo, Elizabeth Kearsley, Ricardo Keichi Umetsu, Lip Khoon Kho, Timothy Killeen, Kanehiro Kitayama, Bente Klitgaard, Alexander Koch, Nicolas Labrière, William Laurance, Susan Laurance, Miguel E. Leal, Aurora Levesley, Adriano J. N. Lima, Janvier Lisingo, Aline P. Lopes, Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez, Tom Lovejoy, Jon C. Lovett, Richard Lowe, William E. Magnusson, Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte, Ângelo Gilberto Manzatto, Ben Hur Marimon, Andrew R. Marshall, Toby Marthews, Simone Matias De Almeida Reis, Colin Maycock, Karina Melgaço, Casimiro Mendoza, Faizah Metali, Vianet Mihindou, William Milliken, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Paulo S. Morandi, Hannah L. Mossman, Laszlo Nagy, Henrique Nascimento, David Neill, Reuben Nilus, Percy Núñez Vargas, Walter Palacios, Nadir Pallqui Camacho, Julie Peacock, Colin Pendry, Maria Cristina Peñuela Mora, Georgia C. Pickavance, John Pipoly, Nigel Pitman, Maureen Playfair, Lourens Poorter, John R. Poulsen, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, Richard Preziosi, Adriana Prieto, Richard B. Primack, Hirma Ramírez-Angulo, Jan Reitsma, Maxime Réjou-Méchain, Zorayda Restrepo Correa, Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa, Lily Rodriguez Bayona, Anand Roopsind, Agustín Rudas, Ervan Rutishauser, Kamariah Abu Salim, Rafael P. Salomão, Juliana Schietti, Douglas Sheil, Richarlly C. Silva, Javier Silva Espejo, Camila Silva Valeria, Marcos Silveira, Murielle Simo-Droissart, Marcelo Fragomeni Simon, James Singh, Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva, Clement Stahl, Juliana Stropp, Rahayu Sukri, Terry Sunderland, Martin Svátek, Michael D. Swaine, Varun Swamy, Hermann Taedoumg, Joey Talbot, James Taplin, David Taylor, Hans ter Steege, John Terborgh, Raquel Thomas, Sean C. Thomas, Armando Torres-Lezama, Peter Umunay, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Geertje van der Heijden, Peter van der Hout, Peter van der Meer, Mark van Nieuwstadt, Hans Verbeeck, Ronald Vernimmen, Alberto Vicentini, Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira, Emilio Vilanova Torre, Jason Vleminckx, Vincent Vos, Ophelia Wang, Lee J. T. White, Simon Willcock, John T. Woods, Verginia Wortel, Kenneth Young, Roderick Zagt, Lise Zemagho, Pieter A. Zuidema, Joeri A. Zwerts, Oliver L. Phillips. Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests. Science. 2020; 368 (6493):869-874.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMartin J. P. Sullivan; Simon L. Lewis; Kofi Affum-Baffoe; Carolina Castilho; Flávia Costa; Aida Cuni Sanchez; Corneille E. N. Ewango; Wannes Hubau; Beatriz Marimon; Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza; Lan Qie; Bonaventure Sonké; Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez; Timothy R. Baker; Roel J. W. Brienen; Ted R. Feldpausch; David Galbraith; Manuel Gloor; Yadvinder Malhi; Shin-Ichiro Aiba; Miguel N. Alexiades; Everton C. Almeida; Edmar Almeida de Oliveira; Esteban Álvarez Dávila; Patricia Alvarez Loayza; Ana Andrade; Simone Aparecida Vieira; Luiz E. O. C. Aragão; Alejandro Araujo-Murakami; Eric J. M. M. Arets; Luzmila Arroyo; Peter Ashton; Gerardo Aymard C.; Fabrício B. Baccaro; Lindsay F. Banin; Christopher Baraloto; Plínio Barbosa Camargo; Jos Barlow; Jorcely Barroso; Jean-François Bastin; Sarah A. Batterman; Hans Beeckman; Serge K. Begne; Amy C. Bennett; Erika Berenguer; Nicholas Berry; Lilian Blanc; Pascal Boeckx; Jan Bogaert; Damien Bonal; Frans Bongers; Matt Bradford; Francis Q. Brearley; Terry Brncic; Foster Brown; Benoit Burban; José Luís Camargo; Wendeson Castro; Carlos Céron; Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro; Victor Chama Moscoso; Jerôme Chave; Eric Chezeaux; Connie J. Clark; Fernanda Coelho de Souza; Murray Collins; James A. Comiskey; Fernando Cornejo Valverde; Massiel Corrales Medina; Lola da Costa; Martin Dančák; Greta C. Dargie; Stuart Davies; Nallaret Davila Cardozo; Thales de Haulleville; Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros; Jhon Del Aguila Pasquel; Géraldine Derroire; Anthony Di Fiore; Jean-Louis Doucet; Aurélie Dourdain; Vincent Droissart; Luisa Fernanda Duque; Romeo Ekoungoulou; Fernando Elias; Terry Erwin; Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert; Sophie Fauset; Joice Ferreira; Gerardo Flores Llampazo; Ernest Foli; Andrew Ford; Martin Gilpin; Jefferson S. Hall; Keith C. Hamer; Alan C. Hamilton; David J. Harris; Terese B. Hart; Radim Hédl; Bruno Herault; Rafael Herrera; Niro Higuchi; Annette Hladik; Eurídice Honorio Coronado; Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco; Walter Huaraca Huasco; Kathryn J. Jeffery; Eliana Jimenez-Rojas; Michelle Kalamandeen; Marie Noël Kamdem Djuikouo; Elizabeth Kearsley; Ricardo Keichi Umetsu; Lip Khoon Kho; Timothy Killeen; Kanehiro Kitayama; Bente Klitgaard; Alexander Koch; Nicolas Labrière; William Laurance; Susan Laurance; Miguel E. Leal; Aurora Levesley; Adriano J. N. Lima; Janvier Lisingo; Aline P. Lopes; Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez; Tom Lovejoy; Jon C. Lovett; Richard Lowe; William E. Magnusson; Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte; Ângelo Gilberto Manzatto; Ben Hur Marimon; Andrew R. Marshall; Toby Marthews; Simone Matias De Almeida Reis; Colin Maycock; Karina Melgaço; Casimiro Mendoza; Faizah Metali; Vianet Mihindou; William Milliken; Edward T. A. Mitchard; Paulo S. Morandi; Hannah L. Mossman; Laszlo Nagy; Henrique Nascimento; David Neill; Reuben Nilus; Percy Núñez Vargas; Walter Palacios; Nadir Pallqui Camacho; Julie Peacock; Colin Pendry; Maria Cristina Peñuela Mora; Georgia C. Pickavance; John Pipoly; Nigel Pitman; Maureen Playfair; Lourens Poorter; John R. Poulsen; Axel Dalberg Poulsen; Richard Preziosi; Adriana Prieto; Richard B. Primack; Hirma Ramírez-Angulo; Jan Reitsma; Maxime Réjou-Méchain; Zorayda Restrepo Correa; Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa; Lily Rodriguez Bayona; Anand Roopsind; Agustín Rudas; Ervan Rutishauser; Kamariah Abu Salim; Rafael P. Salomão; Juliana Schietti; Douglas Sheil; Richarlly C. Silva; Javier Silva Espejo; Camila Silva Valeria; Marcos Silveira; Murielle Simo-Droissart; Marcelo Fragomeni Simon; James Singh; Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva; Clement Stahl; Juliana Stropp; Rahayu Sukri; Terry Sunderland; Martin Svátek; Michael D. Swaine; Varun Swamy; Hermann Taedoumg; Joey Talbot; James Taplin; David Taylor; Hans ter Steege; John Terborgh; Raquel Thomas; Sean C. Thomas; Armando Torres-Lezama; Peter Umunay; Luis Valenzuela Gamarra; Geertje van der Heijden; Peter van der Hout; Peter van der Meer; Mark van Nieuwstadt; Hans Verbeeck; Ronald Vernimmen; Alberto Vicentini; Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira; Emilio Vilanova Torre; Jason Vleminckx; Vincent Vos; Ophelia Wang; Lee J. T. White; Simon Willcock; John T. Woods; Verginia Wortel; Kenneth Young; Roderick Zagt; Lise Zemagho; Pieter A. Zuidema; Joeri A. Zwerts; Oliver L. Phillips. 2020. "Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests." Science 368, no. 6493: 869-874.
Competition among trees is an important driver of community structure and dynamics in tropical forests. Neighboring trees may impact an individual tree’s growth rate and probability of mortality, but large‐scale geographic and environmental variation in these competitive effects has yet to be evaluated across the tropical forest biome. We quantified effects of competition on tree‐level basal area growth and mortality for trees ≥ 10 cm diameter across 151 ~1‐ha plots in mature tropical forests in Amazonia and tropical Africa by developing non‐linear models that accounted for wood density, tree size and neighborhood crowding. Using these models, we assessed how water availability (i.e., climatic water deficit) and soil fertility influenced the predicted plot‐level strength of competition (i.e., the extent to which growth is reduced, or mortality is increased, by competition across all individual trees). On both continents, tree basal area growth decreased with wood density, and increased with tree size. Growth decreased with neighborhood crowding, which suggests that competition is important. Tree mortality decreased with wood density and generally increased with tree size, but was apparently unaffected by neighborhood crowding. Across plots, variation in the plot‐level strength of competition was most strongly related to plot basal area (i.e., the sum of the basal area of all trees in a plot), with greater reductions in growth occurring in forests with high basal area, but in Amazonia the strength of competition also varied with plot‐level wood density. In Amazonia, the strength of competition increased with water availability because of the greater basal area of wetter forests, but was only weakly related to soil fertility. In Africa, competition was weakly related to soil fertility, and invariant across the shorter water availability gradient. Overall, our results suggest that competition influences the structure and dynamics of tropical forests primarily through effects on individual tree growth rather than mortality, and that the strength of competition largely depends on environment‐mediated variation in basal area.
Danaë M. A. Rozendaal; Oliver L. Phillips; Simon L. Lewis; Kofi Affum‐Baffoe; Esteban Alvarez-Davila; Ana Andrade; Luiz E. O. C. Aragão; Alejandro Araujo‐Murakami; Timothy R. Baker; Olaf Bánki; Roel J. W. Brienen; José Luis C. Camargo; James A. Comiskey; Marie Noël Djuikouo Kamdem; Sophie Fauset; Ted R. Feldpausch; Timothy J. Killeen; William F. Laurance; Susan G. W. Laurance; Thomas Lovejoy; Yadvinder Malhi; Beatriz S. Marimon; Ben‐Hur Marimon Junior; Andrew R. Marshall; David A. Neill; Percy Núñez Vargas; Nigel C. A. Pitman; Lourens Poorter; Jan Reitsma; Marcos Silveira; Bonaventure Sonké; Terry Sunderland; Hermann Taedoumg; Hans ter Steege; John W. Terborgh; Ricardo K. Umetsu; Geertje M.F. Van Der Heijden; Emilio Vilanova; Vincent Antoine Vos; Lee J. T. White; Simon Willcock; Lise Zemagho; Mark C. Vanderwel. Competition influences tree growth, but not mortality, across environmental gradients in Amazonia and tropical Africa. Ecology 2020, 101, e03052 .
AMA StyleDanaë M. A. Rozendaal, Oliver L. Phillips, Simon L. Lewis, Kofi Affum‐Baffoe, Esteban Alvarez-Davila, Ana Andrade, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Alejandro Araujo‐Murakami, Timothy R. Baker, Olaf Bánki, Roel J. W. Brienen, José Luis C. Camargo, James A. Comiskey, Marie Noël Djuikouo Kamdem, Sophie Fauset, Ted R. Feldpausch, Timothy J. Killeen, William F. Laurance, Susan G. W. Laurance, Thomas Lovejoy, Yadvinder Malhi, Beatriz S. Marimon, Ben‐Hur Marimon Junior, Andrew R. Marshall, David A. Neill, Percy Núñez Vargas, Nigel C. A. Pitman, Lourens Poorter, Jan Reitsma, Marcos Silveira, Bonaventure Sonké, Terry Sunderland, Hermann Taedoumg, Hans ter Steege, John W. Terborgh, Ricardo K. Umetsu, Geertje M.F. Van Der Heijden, Emilio Vilanova, Vincent Antoine Vos, Lee J. T. White, Simon Willcock, Lise Zemagho, Mark C. Vanderwel. Competition influences tree growth, but not mortality, across environmental gradients in Amazonia and tropical Africa. Ecology. 2020; 101 (7):e03052.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDanaë M. A. Rozendaal; Oliver L. Phillips; Simon L. Lewis; Kofi Affum‐Baffoe; Esteban Alvarez-Davila; Ana Andrade; Luiz E. O. C. Aragão; Alejandro Araujo‐Murakami; Timothy R. Baker; Olaf Bánki; Roel J. W. Brienen; José Luis C. Camargo; James A. Comiskey; Marie Noël Djuikouo Kamdem; Sophie Fauset; Ted R. Feldpausch; Timothy J. Killeen; William F. Laurance; Susan G. W. Laurance; Thomas Lovejoy; Yadvinder Malhi; Beatriz S. Marimon; Ben‐Hur Marimon Junior; Andrew R. Marshall; David A. Neill; Percy Núñez Vargas; Nigel C. A. Pitman; Lourens Poorter; Jan Reitsma; Marcos Silveira; Bonaventure Sonké; Terry Sunderland; Hermann Taedoumg; Hans ter Steege; John W. Terborgh; Ricardo K. Umetsu; Geertje M.F. Van Der Heijden; Emilio Vilanova; Vincent Antoine Vos; Lee J. T. White; Simon Willcock; Lise Zemagho; Mark C. Vanderwel. 2020. "Competition influences tree growth, but not mortality, across environmental gradients in Amazonia and tropical Africa." Ecology 101, no. 7: e03052.
Regime shifts can abruptly affect hydrological, climatic and terrestrial systems, leading to degraded ecosystems and impoverished societies. While the frequency of regime shifts is predicted to increase, the fundamental relationships between the spatial-temporal scales of shifts and their underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Here we analyse empirical data from terrestrial (n = 4), marine (n = 25) and freshwater (n = 13) environments and show positive sub-linear empirical relationships between the size and shift duration of systems. Each additional unit area of an ecosystem provides an increasingly smaller unit of time taken for that system to collapse, meaning that large systems tend to shift more slowly than small systems but disproportionately faster. We substantiate these findings with five computational models that reveal the importance of system structure in controlling shift duration. The findings imply that shifts in Earth ecosystems occur over ‘human’ timescales of years and decades, meaning the collapse of large vulnerable ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest and Caribbean coral reefs, may take only a few decades once triggered.
Gregory S. Cooper; Simon Willcock; John A. Dearing. Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems. Nature Communications 2020, 11, 1 -10.
AMA StyleGregory S. Cooper, Simon Willcock, John A. Dearing. Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems. Nature Communications. 2020; 11 (1):1-10.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGregory S. Cooper; Simon Willcock; John A. Dearing. 2020. "Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems." Nature Communications 11, no. 1: 1-10.
Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.
Simon Willcock; Danny Hooftman; Stefano Balbi; Ryan Blanchard; Terence P. Dawson; Patrick O'Farrell; Thomas Hickler; Malcolm D. Hudson; Mats Lindeskog; Javier Martínez-López; Mark Mulligan; Belinda Reyers; Charlie Shackleton; Nadia Sitas; Ferdinando Villa; Sophie M. Watts; Felix Eigenbrod; James M. Bullock. A Continental-Scale Validation of Ecosystem Service Models. Ecosystems 2019, 22, 1902 -1917.
AMA StyleSimon Willcock, Danny Hooftman, Stefano Balbi, Ryan Blanchard, Terence P. Dawson, Patrick O'Farrell, Thomas Hickler, Malcolm D. Hudson, Mats Lindeskog, Javier Martínez-López, Mark Mulligan, Belinda Reyers, Charlie Shackleton, Nadia Sitas, Ferdinando Villa, Sophie M. Watts, Felix Eigenbrod, James M. Bullock. A Continental-Scale Validation of Ecosystem Service Models. Ecosystems. 2019; 22 (8):1902-1917.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSimon Willcock; Danny Hooftman; Stefano Balbi; Ryan Blanchard; Terence P. Dawson; Patrick O'Farrell; Thomas Hickler; Malcolm D. Hudson; Mats Lindeskog; Javier Martínez-López; Mark Mulligan; Belinda Reyers; Charlie Shackleton; Nadia Sitas; Ferdinando Villa; Sophie M. Watts; Felix Eigenbrod; James M. Bullock. 2019. "A Continental-Scale Validation of Ecosystem Service Models." Ecosystems 22, no. 8: 1902-1917.
Recent developments in machine learning have expanded data-driven modelling (DDM) capabilities, allowing artificial intelligence to infer the behaviour of a system by computing and exploiting correlations between observed variables within it. Machine learning algorithms may enable the use of increasingly available ‘big data’ and assist applying ecosystem service models across scales, analysing and predicting the flows of these services to disaggregated beneficiaries. We use the Weka and ARIES software to produce two examples of DDM: firewood use in South Africa and biodiversity value in Sicily, respectively. Our South African example demonstrates that DDM (64–91% accuracy) can identify the areas where firewood use is within the top quartile with comparable accuracy as conventional modelling techniques (54–77% accuracy). The Sicilian example highlights how DDM can be made more accessible to decision makers, who show both capacity and willingness to engage with uncertainty information. Uncertainty estimates, produced as part of the DDM process, allow decision makers to determine what level of uncertainty is acceptable to them and to use their own expertise for potentially contentious decisions. We conclude that DDM has a clear role to play when modelling ecosystem services, helping produce interdisciplinary models and holistic solutions to complex socio-ecological issues.
Simon Willcock; Javier Martínez-López; Danny Hooftman; Kenneth J. Bagstad; Stefano Balbi; Alessia Marzo; Carlo Prato; Saverio Sciandrello; Giovanni Signorello; Brian Voigt; Ferdinando Villa; James M. Bullock; Ioannis N. Athanasiadis. Machine learning for ecosystem services. Ecosystem Services 2018, 33, 165 -174.
AMA StyleSimon Willcock, Javier Martínez-López, Danny Hooftman, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Stefano Balbi, Alessia Marzo, Carlo Prato, Saverio Sciandrello, Giovanni Signorello, Brian Voigt, Ferdinando Villa, James M. Bullock, Ioannis N. Athanasiadis. Machine learning for ecosystem services. Ecosystem Services. 2018; 33 ():165-174.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSimon Willcock; Javier Martínez-López; Danny Hooftman; Kenneth J. Bagstad; Stefano Balbi; Alessia Marzo; Carlo Prato; Saverio Sciandrello; Giovanni Signorello; Brian Voigt; Ferdinando Villa; James M. Bullock; Ioannis N. Athanasiadis. 2018. "Machine learning for ecosystem services." Ecosystem Services 33, no. : 165-174.
Wildlife has been traditionally used by forest communities as a source of protein, and the Peruvian Amazon is no exception. The articulation of colonist and indigenous communities to urban centers and markets results in changes in livelihood strategies and impacts on wildlife populations. To address the threat of overhunting and forest conversion, we provide a generalized characterization of colonist and indigenous communities and their hunting activities near Pucallpa, Ucayali, Peru. A semi-structured household survey was conducted to characterize hunters and describe their prey collections. The data were analyzed by conducting a Kruskal-Wallis test, a multiple regression analysis, and by estimating the harvest rate (H). Less wealthy households were more actively engaged in hunting for food security and as a livelihood strategy. Additionally, older hunters were associated with higher hunting rates. Although the percentage of hunters was relatively low, estimated hunting rates suggest overharvesting of wildlife. Lowland pacas (Cuniculus paca) were the most frequently hunted prey, followed by red brocket deer (Mazama americana) and primates. While hunting intensity was not significantly different between indigenous and colonist communities, hunting rate disparities suggest there are different types of hunters (specialized vs. opportunistic) and that prey composition differs between communities. Close monitoring of wildlife populations and hunting activities is ideal for more accurately determining the impact of hunting on wildlife population and in turn on forest health. In lack of this type of information, this study provides insight of hunting as a shifting livelihood strategy in a rapidly changing environment at the forest/agriculture frontier.
Wendy Francesconi; Vincent Bax; Genowefa Blundo-Canto; Simon Willcock; Sandra Cuadros; Martha Vanegas; Marcela Quintero; Carlos A. Torres-Vitolas. Hunters and hunting across indigenous and colonist communities at the forest-agriculture interface: an ethnozoological study from the Peruvian Amazon. Journal of Ethnobiology and Ethnomedicine 2018, 14, 54 .
AMA StyleWendy Francesconi, Vincent Bax, Genowefa Blundo-Canto, Simon Willcock, Sandra Cuadros, Martha Vanegas, Marcela Quintero, Carlos A. Torres-Vitolas. Hunters and hunting across indigenous and colonist communities at the forest-agriculture interface: an ethnozoological study from the Peruvian Amazon. Journal of Ethnobiology and Ethnomedicine. 2018; 14 (1):54.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWendy Francesconi; Vincent Bax; Genowefa Blundo-Canto; Simon Willcock; Sandra Cuadros; Martha Vanegas; Marcela Quintero; Carlos A. Torres-Vitolas. 2018. "Hunters and hunting across indigenous and colonist communities at the forest-agriculture interface: an ethnozoological study from the Peruvian Amazon." Journal of Ethnobiology and Ethnomedicine 14, no. 1: 54.
Rachel Neugarten; Penny F. Langhammer; Elena Osipova; Kenneth J. Bagstad; Nirmal Bhagabati; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Nigel Dudley; Vittoria Elliott; Leah R. Gerber; Claudia Gutiérrez-Arellano; Kasandra-Zoica Ivanić; Marianne Kettunen; Lisa Mandle; Jennifer C. Merriman; Mark Mulligan; Kelvin S.-H. Peh; Ciara Raudsepp-Hearne; Darius J. Semmens; Sue Stolton; Simon Willcock. Tools for measuring, modelling, and valuing ecosystem services: guidance for Key Biodiversity Areas, natural World Heritage sites, and protected areas. Tools for measuring, modelling, and valuing ecosystem services: guidance for Key Biodiversity Areas, natural World Heritage sites, and protected areas 2018, 1 .
AMA StyleRachel Neugarten, Penny F. Langhammer, Elena Osipova, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Nirmal Bhagabati, Stuart H.M. Butchart, Nigel Dudley, Vittoria Elliott, Leah R. Gerber, Claudia Gutiérrez-Arellano, Kasandra-Zoica Ivanić, Marianne Kettunen, Lisa Mandle, Jennifer C. Merriman, Mark Mulligan, Kelvin S.-H. Peh, Ciara Raudsepp-Hearne, Darius J. Semmens, Sue Stolton, Simon Willcock. Tools for measuring, modelling, and valuing ecosystem services: guidance for Key Biodiversity Areas, natural World Heritage sites, and protected areas. Tools for measuring, modelling, and valuing ecosystem services: guidance for Key Biodiversity Areas, natural World Heritage sites, and protected areas. 2018; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRachel Neugarten; Penny F. Langhammer; Elena Osipova; Kenneth J. Bagstad; Nirmal Bhagabati; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Nigel Dudley; Vittoria Elliott; Leah R. Gerber; Claudia Gutiérrez-Arellano; Kasandra-Zoica Ivanić; Marianne Kettunen; Lisa Mandle; Jennifer C. Merriman; Mark Mulligan; Kelvin S.-H. Peh; Ciara Raudsepp-Hearne; Darius J. Semmens; Sue Stolton; Simon Willcock. 2018. "Tools for measuring, modelling, and valuing ecosystem services: guidance for Key Biodiversity Areas, natural World Heritage sites, and protected areas." Tools for measuring, modelling, and valuing ecosystem services: guidance for Key Biodiversity Areas, natural World Heritage sites, and protected areas , no. : 1.
Rangelands throughout sub-Saharan Africa are currently undergoing two major pressures: climate change (through altered rainfall and seasonality patterns) and habitat fragmentation (brought by land use change driven by land demand for agriculture and conservation). Here we explore these dimensions, investigating the impact of land use change decisions, by pastoralists in southern Kenya rangelands, on human well-being and animal densities using an agent-based model. The constructed agent-based model uses input biomass data simulated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) dynamic vegetation model and parameterized with data from literature. Scenarios of land use change under different rainfall years, land tenure types and levels of wildlife conservation support were simulated. Reflecting reality, our results show livestock grazing as the predominant land use that changes with precipitation and land tenure leading to varying livelihood strategies. For example, agriculture is the most common livelihood in wet years and conservation levels increase with increasing support of wildlife conservation initiatives. Our model demonstrates the complex and multiple interactions between pastoralists, land management and the environment. We highlight the importance of understanding the conditions driving the sustainability of semi-arid rangelands and the communities they support, and the role of external actors, such as wildlife conservation investors, in East Africa.
Rebecca Kariuki; Simon Willcock; Rob Marchant. Rangeland Livelihood Strategies under Varying Climate Regimes: Model Insights from Southern Kenya. Land 2018, 7, 47 .
AMA StyleRebecca Kariuki, Simon Willcock, Rob Marchant. Rangeland Livelihood Strategies under Varying Climate Regimes: Model Insights from Southern Kenya. Land. 2018; 7 (2):47.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRebecca Kariuki; Simon Willcock; Rob Marchant. 2018. "Rangeland Livelihood Strategies under Varying Climate Regimes: Model Insights from Southern Kenya." Land 7, no. 2: 47.
Kenneth J. Bagstad; Simon Willcock; Glenn-Marie Lange. Remote Sensing and Modeling to Fill the Gap in “Missing” Natural Capital. The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future 2018, 199 -210.
AMA StyleKenneth J. Bagstad, Simon Willcock, Glenn-Marie Lange. Remote Sensing and Modeling to Fill the Gap in “Missing” Natural Capital. The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future. 2018; ():199-210.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKenneth J. Bagstad; Simon Willcock; Glenn-Marie Lange. 2018. "Remote Sensing and Modeling to Fill the Gap in “Missing” Natural Capital." The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future , no. : 199-210.