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Prof. Dr. James Bullock
NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK

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0 Ecosystem Services
0 Restoration
0 spatial dynamics
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Journal article
Published: 27 July 2021 in Science of The Total Environment
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Machine learning (ML) expands traditional data analysis and presents a range of opportunities in ecosystem service (ES) research, offering rapid processing of ‘big data’ and enabling significant advances in data description and predictive modelling. Descriptive ML techniques group data with little or no prior domain specific assumptions; they can generate hypotheses and automatically sort data prior to other analyses. Predictive ML techniques allow for the predictive modelling of highly non-linear systems where casual mechanisms are poorly understood, as is often the case for ES. We conducted a review to explore how ML is used in ES research and to identify and quantify trends in the different ML approaches that are used. We reviewed 308 peer-reviewed publications and identified that ES studies implemented machine learning techniques in data description (64%; n = 308) and predictive modelling (44%), with some papers containing both categories. Classification and Regression Trees were the most popular techniques (60%), but unsupervised learning techniques were also used for descriptive tasks such as clustering to group or split data without prior assumptions (19%). Whilst there are examples of ES publications that apply ML with rigour, many studies do not have robust or repeatable methods. Some studies fail to report model settings (43%) or software used (28%), and many studies do not report carrying out any form of model hyperparameter tuning (67%) or test model generalisability (59%). Whilst studies use ML to analyse very large and complex datasets, ES research is generally not taking full advantage of the capacity of ML to model big data (1138 medium number of data points; 13 median quantity of variables). There is great further opportunity to utilise ML in ES research, to make better use of big data and to develop detailed modelling of spatial-temporal dynamics that meet stakeholder demands.

ACS Style

Matthew Scowen; Ioannis N. Athanasiadis; James M. Bullock; Felix Eigenbrod; Simon Willcock. The current and future uses of machine learning in ecosystem service research. Science of The Total Environment 2021, 799, 149263 .

AMA Style

Matthew Scowen, Ioannis N. Athanasiadis, James M. Bullock, Felix Eigenbrod, Simon Willcock. The current and future uses of machine learning in ecosystem service research. Science of The Total Environment. 2021; 799 ():149263.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Matthew Scowen; Ioannis N. Athanasiadis; James M. Bullock; Felix Eigenbrod; Simon Willcock. 2021. "The current and future uses of machine learning in ecosystem service research." Science of The Total Environment 799, no. : 149263.

Journal article
Published: 23 July 2021 in Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment
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Agri-environmental management has been promoted as an approach to enhance delivery of multiple ecosystem services. Most agri-environment agreements include several actions that the farmer agrees to put in place. But, most studies have only considered how individual agri-environmental actions affect particular ecosystem services. Thus, there is little understanding of how the range of agri-environmental actions available to a farmer might be deployed on any individual farm to enhance multiple services. To address this knowledge gap, we carried out an experimental study in which we deployed a set of agri-environmental actions on a commercial farm in southern England. Agri-environmental actions comprised wildflower margins and fallow areas in arable fields, creating and enhancing grassland with wildflowers, and digging ponds. Alongside biodiversity responses, we measured effects on a number of ecosystem services: pollination, pest control, crop and forage yield, water quality, climate regulation and cultural services. Wildflower margins enhanced invertebrates, pest control and crop yield, and aesthetic appeal. A greater number of pollinators was linked to enhanced oilseed rape yield. But these margins and the fallows did not prevent run-off of nutrients and sediment into waterways, and showed limited carbon sequestration or reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Newly-dug ponds captured large amounts of sediment and provided aesthetic appeal. Grasslands had higher soil carbon content and microbial biomass, lower N20 emissions, and net sequestration of carbon compared to arable land. Enhancement of grassland plant diversity increased forage quality and aesthetic appeal. Visitors and residents valued a range of agri-environmental features and biodiversity across the farm. Our findings suggest one cannot necessarily expect any particular agri-environmental action will enhance all of a hoped-for set of ecosystem services in any particular setting. A bet-hedging strategy would be for farmers to apply a suite of options to deliver a range of ecosystem service benefits, rather than assuming that one or two options will work as catch-all solutions.

ACS Style

James M. Bullock; Morag E. McCracken; Michael J. Bowes; Roselle E. Chapman; Anil R. Graves; Shelley A. Hinsley; Michael G. Hutchins; Marek Nowakowski; David J.E. Nicholls; Simon Oakley; Gareth H. Old; Nicholas J. Ostle; John W. Redhead; Ben A. Woodcock; Tom Bedwell; Sarah Mayes; Vicky S. Robinson; Richard F. Pywell. Does agri-environmental management enhance biodiversity and multiple ecosystem services?: A farm-scale experiment. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 2021, 320, 107582 .

AMA Style

James M. Bullock, Morag E. McCracken, Michael J. Bowes, Roselle E. Chapman, Anil R. Graves, Shelley A. Hinsley, Michael G. Hutchins, Marek Nowakowski, David J.E. Nicholls, Simon Oakley, Gareth H. Old, Nicholas J. Ostle, John W. Redhead, Ben A. Woodcock, Tom Bedwell, Sarah Mayes, Vicky S. Robinson, Richard F. Pywell. Does agri-environmental management enhance biodiversity and multiple ecosystem services?: A farm-scale experiment. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 2021; 320 ():107582.

Chicago/Turabian Style

James M. Bullock; Morag E. McCracken; Michael J. Bowes; Roselle E. Chapman; Anil R. Graves; Shelley A. Hinsley; Michael G. Hutchins; Marek Nowakowski; David J.E. Nicholls; Simon Oakley; Gareth H. Old; Nicholas J. Ostle; John W. Redhead; Ben A. Woodcock; Tom Bedwell; Sarah Mayes; Vicky S. Robinson; Richard F. Pywell. 2021. "Does agri-environmental management enhance biodiversity and multiple ecosystem services?: A farm-scale experiment." Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 320, no. : 107582.

Editorial
Published: 19 July 2021 in Land
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Many assessments of ecosystem services (ESs; nature’s contribution to people

ACS Style

Simon Willcock; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Norman Dandy; James Bullock. High Spatial-Temporal Resolution Data across Large Scales Are Needed to Transform Our Understanding of Ecosystem Services. Land 2021, 10, 759 .

AMA Style

Simon Willcock, Javier Martinez-Lopez, Norman Dandy, James Bullock. High Spatial-Temporal Resolution Data across Large Scales Are Needed to Transform Our Understanding of Ecosystem Services. Land. 2021; 10 (7):759.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Simon Willcock; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Norman Dandy; James Bullock. 2021. "High Spatial-Temporal Resolution Data across Large Scales Are Needed to Transform Our Understanding of Ecosystem Services." Land 10, no. 7: 759.

Journal article
Published: 01 June 2021 in Sustainability
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Sustainable intensification will require the development of new management systems to support global food demands, whilst conserving the integrity of ecosystem functions. Here, we test and identify management strategies to maintain or enhance agricultural production in grasslands whilst simultaneously supporting the provision of multiple ecosystem services. Over four years, we investigated how the establishment of three plant functional groups (grasses, legumes, and other flowering forbs), using different cultivation (minimum tillage and deep ploughing) and management (cutting, grazing and their intensity) techniques, affected provision and complementarity between key ecosystem services. These ecosystem services were agronomic production, pollination, pest control, food resources for farmland birds, and soil services. We found that the establishment of floristically diverse swards, particularly those containing grasses, legumes and forbs, maximised forage yield and quality, pollinator abundance, soil nitrogen, and bird food resources, as well as enhancing populations of natural predators of pests. Cutting management increased bird food resources and natural predators of pests without depleting other services considered. However, a single management solution to maximise the delivery of all ecosystem services is unlikely to exist, as trade-offs also occurred. Consequently, management options may need to be tailored to strategically support localised deficits in key ecosystem services.

ACS Style

Joanna Savage; Ben Woodcock; James Bullock; Marek Nowakowski; Jeremy Tallowin; Richard Pywell. Management to Support Multiple Ecosystem Services from Productive Grasslands. Sustainability 2021, 13, 6263 .

AMA Style

Joanna Savage, Ben Woodcock, James Bullock, Marek Nowakowski, Jeremy Tallowin, Richard Pywell. Management to Support Multiple Ecosystem Services from Productive Grasslands. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (11):6263.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Joanna Savage; Ben Woodcock; James Bullock; Marek Nowakowski; Jeremy Tallowin; Richard Pywell. 2021. "Management to Support Multiple Ecosystem Services from Productive Grasslands." Sustainability 13, no. 11: 6263.

Review
Published: 29 May 2021 in Land
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To date, the provision of ecosystem services has largely been estimated based on spatial patterns of land cover alone, using benefit transfer analysis. Although it is increasingly being recognised that the distribution of the human population affects whether a potential service translates into a realised service, this misses key steps in the process and assumes that everyone accesses ecosystem services in the same way. Here we describe a conceptual approach to ecosystem services in terms of movement and flows. We highlight that ecosystem service flows can be broken down into ‘nature to people’ (the movement of nature towards beneficiaries) and ‘people to nature’ (the movement of beneficiaries towards nature). The former has been relatively well described. Here, we explore the latter by reviewing research on human migration, animal foraging and landscape connectivity. We assess if and how existing theories might be useful in describing how people seek out ecosystem services. We consider some of the ways in which flows of people to nature can be measured. Such measurements may reveal which movement theories best represent how people seek out and access ecosystem services. Overall, our review aims to improve the future modelling of ecosystem services by more explicitly considering how people access potential services and therefore realise them.

ACS Style

Rachel Dolan; James Bullock; Julia Jones; Ioannis Athanasiadis; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Simon Willcock. The Flows of Nature to People, and of People to Nature: Applying Movement Concepts to Ecosystem Services. Land 2021, 10, 576 .

AMA Style

Rachel Dolan, James Bullock, Julia Jones, Ioannis Athanasiadis, Javier Martinez-Lopez, Simon Willcock. The Flows of Nature to People, and of People to Nature: Applying Movement Concepts to Ecosystem Services. Land. 2021; 10 (6):576.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rachel Dolan; James Bullock; Julia Jones; Ioannis Athanasiadis; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Simon Willcock. 2021. "The Flows of Nature to People, and of People to Nature: Applying Movement Concepts to Ecosystem Services." Land 10, no. 6: 576.

Journal article
Published: 25 May 2021 in Journal for Nature Conservation
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Calcareous grasslands are of high conservation importance and have been maintained by livestock grazing over many centuries. Following the reduction in traditional livestock grazing (cattle and sheep) of semi-natural grassland during the twentieth century, conservation-based grazing management was introduced in order to conserve remaining grasslands. In UK semi-natural grasslands, grazing pressure has fluctuated over time due to changes in conservation funding and stock availability, whilst the time of year at which stock graze has also shifted. There is little quantitative data available to demonstrate the details of changed grazing patterns, or their long-term effects on the vegetation, thus the full impacts of these changes are not well understood. This study examines the response of a diverse calcareous grassland community to changes in grazing management between 1979 and 2010 at Martin Down National Nature Reserve, southern England, using historical vegetation surveys and grazing records collected and recorded by reserve staff. Historical data showed a shift in grazing regime, whereby grazing occurred across all seasons in the early period, but switched to predominately the autumn and winter in the present century. Despite this significant shift in management over time, the vegetation community did not change dramatically over this period, although small increases in species richness and diversity were detected. The richness of calcareous grassland indicator species remained largely consistent, suggesting the conservation value of the grassland persisted, and the community types also stayed fairly constant over the 31 years. Furthermore, weak evidence was found for impacts of grazing in particular seasons on vegetation community measures; species richness, species diversity, indicator richness, indicator abundance, grass abundance and forb abundance. This study suggests that these vegetation communities are robust to changes in grazing seasonality providing that sufficient grazing pressure is provided within the year. The compartmentalised grazing employed at Martin Down may be a useful method for ensuring this outcome. However more research is required, preferably using controlled field experiments before more reliable recommendations can be prescribed.

ACS Style

Lucy E. Ridding; James M. Bullock; Kevin J. Walker; Clive Bealey; Richard F. Pywell. Responses of calcareous grassland plant communities to changed seasonal grazing management: results of a 31 year study. Journal for Nature Conservation 2021, 62, 126026 .

AMA Style

Lucy E. Ridding, James M. Bullock, Kevin J. Walker, Clive Bealey, Richard F. Pywell. Responses of calcareous grassland plant communities to changed seasonal grazing management: results of a 31 year study. Journal for Nature Conservation. 2021; 62 ():126026.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lucy E. Ridding; James M. Bullock; Kevin J. Walker; Clive Bealey; Richard F. Pywell. 2021. "Responses of calcareous grassland plant communities to changed seasonal grazing management: results of a 31 year study." Journal for Nature Conservation 62, no. : 126026.

Journal article
Published: 13 May 2021 in Biological Conservation
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Semi-natural grasslands harbour many of Europe's species of conservation interest. Although larger grasslands are the focus of most conservation activity, many grassland fragments are scattered across landscapes –in small patches or along linear elements– which can form Grassland Green Infrastructure (GGI). GGI has the potential to enhance landscape diversity by creating functioning metacommunities comprising of large semi-natural grasslands and these surrounding fragments. While often highlighted in conservation policy, little is known about the biodiversity supported by green infrastructure itself and thus its conservation potential. To address this issue, we contrasted plant communities in 36 ‘core’ grassland sites across three European countries with communities in the surrounding GGI. We related compositional differences to amount and type of GGI habitat (patches or linear), and the distances for seed dispersal by livestock from core sites. We found substantial differences between the GGI and the core sites, with a mean 54% species turn-over. These differences indicated filtering of stress tolerant species characteristic of low nutrient conditions, and semi-natural grassland specialists. Species with poorer dispersal abilities declined strongly with increasing distances from the core sites. The many additional species in the GGI, not found in the core sites, were predominantly those with a competitive strategy and high seed dispersal ability. We conclude that the biodiversity-supporting role of GGI across Europe is severely constrained by eutrophication, dispersal limitation and external propagule pressure. Actions to improve the quality of GGI might include enhancing dispersal by livestock combined with more type-diversification and less intensively used grassland habitats.

ACS Style

Danny Hooftman; Adam Kimberley; Sara A.O. Cousins; Gema Escribano-Avila; Olivier Honnay; Patricia Krickl; Jan Plue; Peter Poschlod; Anna Traveset; James M. Bullock. Dispersal limitation, eutrophication and propagule pressure constrain the conservation value of Grassland Green Infrastructure. Biological Conservation 2021, 258, 109152 .

AMA Style

Danny Hooftman, Adam Kimberley, Sara A.O. Cousins, Gema Escribano-Avila, Olivier Honnay, Patricia Krickl, Jan Plue, Peter Poschlod, Anna Traveset, James M. Bullock. Dispersal limitation, eutrophication and propagule pressure constrain the conservation value of Grassland Green Infrastructure. Biological Conservation. 2021; 258 ():109152.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Danny Hooftman; Adam Kimberley; Sara A.O. Cousins; Gema Escribano-Avila; Olivier Honnay; Patricia Krickl; Jan Plue; Peter Poschlod; Anna Traveset; James M. Bullock. 2021. "Dispersal limitation, eutrophication and propagule pressure constrain the conservation value of Grassland Green Infrastructure." Biological Conservation 258, no. : 109152.

Research article
Published: 15 April 2021 in Landscape Ecology
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Context Habitat loss has clear negative effects on biodiversity, but whether fragmentation per se (FPS), excluding habitat loss does is debatable. A contribution to this debate may be that many fragmentation studies tend to use landscapes of fragmented focal-habitat and a single vastly different species-poor intervening land cover (the matrix). Objectives How does matrix composition influence the effect of FPS on biodiversity?. Methods Using an individual-based model to investigate the effect of different configurations of the matrix on the relationship between FPS and biodiversity of the focal-habitat. We manipulated the number and quality of land cover types in the matrix, and their similarity to the focal-habitat. Results Extremely different matrix, caused an order of magnitude stronger effect of FPS on alpha- and gamma-diversity and beta-diversity to decline. Low FPS led to high gamma-diversity. Increasing FPS caused a dramatic decline to low diversity. In contrast landscapes with a more similar matrix had lower diversity under low FPS declining little with increasing FPS. Having few matrix types caused beta-diversity to decline in general compared to landscapes with a larger numbers. Conclusions The effects of FPS on biodiversity may change depending on the number of matrix types and their similarity to the focal-habitat. We recommend that fragmentation studies should consider a greater variety of landscapes to help assess in which cases FPS does not have a negative impact and allow better predictions of the impacts of fragmentation. We show the importance of having a diversity of matrix land cover types and improving the hospitability of the matrix for species dependent on the focal-habitat.

ACS Style

Jordan Chetcuti; William E. Kunin; James M. Bullock. Matrix composition mediates effects of habitat fragmentation: a modelling study. Landscape Ecology 2021, 36, 1631 -1646.

AMA Style

Jordan Chetcuti, William E. Kunin, James M. Bullock. Matrix composition mediates effects of habitat fragmentation: a modelling study. Landscape Ecology. 2021; 36 (6):1631-1646.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jordan Chetcuti; William E. Kunin; James M. Bullock. 2021. "Matrix composition mediates effects of habitat fragmentation: a modelling study." Landscape Ecology 36, no. 6: 1631-1646.

Research article
Published: 03 February 2021 in Journal of Applied Ecology
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To tackle pollinator declines, there is a major need to increase the quantity of flower‐rich habitats. Road verges offer one such opportunity but are exposed to diverse forms of pollution from roads and road traffic. We carried out a broad initial assessment to establish if and how pollution affects the quality of road verges as pollinator foraging environments. We assessed the spatial distribution of pollution, flowers and pollinators in road verges, then used field experiments to simulate and measure the impacts of four ubiquitous and little studied forms of road pollution (noise, turbulence, dust and metals) on pollinator densities and foraging behaviour. We found that pollinators in road verges were exposed to noise, turbulence, dust and metal pollution, which decreased with distance from the road edge but, with the exception of turbulence, extended more than 8 m into road verges. Pollinator densities were lower closer to the road edge—particularly within first 2 m (55% lower than at 7–9 m)—where pollution is greatest. This was despite a similar density and species richness of flowers. Simulated turbulence deterred pollinators by causing intermittent disturbance (reducing visit duration by up to 54%), and some pollinator taxa preferentially avoided concentrations of metals that were more frequently found in flowers within 2 m of roads (resulting in up to 75% fewer visits), while noise and dust had no apparent effect. Synthesis and applications. Pollinators in road verges are exposed to many forms of pollution, and we found impacts of roadside‐realistic levels of turbulence and metals on pollinator densities and foraging behaviour. Although the findings suggest that road verges are largely suitable for pollinator conservation, management enhancements should prioritise areas more than 2 m from the road edge, and verges along roads with relatively lower traffic densities.

ACS Style

Benjamin B. Phillips; James M. Bullock; Kevin J. Gaston; Karen A. Hudson‐Edwards; Meg Bamford; Dave Cruse; Lynn V. Dicks; Carmen Falagan; Claire Wallace; Juliet L. Osborne. Impacts of multiple pollutants on pollinator activity in road verges. Journal of Applied Ecology 2021, 58, 1017 -1029.

AMA Style

Benjamin B. Phillips, James M. Bullock, Kevin J. Gaston, Karen A. Hudson‐Edwards, Meg Bamford, Dave Cruse, Lynn V. Dicks, Carmen Falagan, Claire Wallace, Juliet L. Osborne. Impacts of multiple pollutants on pollinator activity in road verges. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2021; 58 (5):1017-1029.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin B. Phillips; James M. Bullock; Kevin J. Gaston; Karen A. Hudson‐Edwards; Meg Bamford; Dave Cruse; Lynn V. Dicks; Carmen Falagan; Claire Wallace; Juliet L. Osborne. 2021. "Impacts of multiple pollutants on pollinator activity in road verges." Journal of Applied Ecology 58, no. 5: 1017-1029.

Research article
Published: 20 November 2020 in Science Advances
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Biodiversity is essential for the maintenance of ecosystem health and delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, the drivers of biodiversity loss and the spatial variation in their impacts are poorly understood. Here, we explore the spatial-temporal distributions of threatened and declining (“biodiversity-loss”) species and find that these species are affected by multiple stressors, with climate and human activities being the fundamental shaping forces. There has been large spatial variation in the distribution of threatened species over China’s provinces, with the biodiversity of Gansu, Guangdong, Hainan, and Shaanxi provinces severely reduced. With increasing urbanization and industrialization, the expansion of construction and worsening pollution has led to habitat retreat or degradation, and high proportions of amphibians, mammals, and reptiles are threatened. Because distributions of species and stressors vary widely across different climate zones and geographical areas, specific policies and measures are needed for preventing biodiversity loss in different regions.

ACS Style

Yonglong Lu; Yifu Yang; Bin Sun; Jingjing Yuan; MinZhao Yu; Nils Chr. Stenseth; James M. Bullock; Michael Obersteiner. Spatial variation in biodiversity loss across China under multiple environmental stressors. Science Advances 2020, 6, eabd0952 .

AMA Style

Yonglong Lu, Yifu Yang, Bin Sun, Jingjing Yuan, MinZhao Yu, Nils Chr. Stenseth, James M. Bullock, Michael Obersteiner. Spatial variation in biodiversity loss across China under multiple environmental stressors. Science Advances. 2020; 6 (47):eabd0952.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yonglong Lu; Yifu Yang; Bin Sun; Jingjing Yuan; MinZhao Yu; Nils Chr. Stenseth; James M. Bullock; Michael Obersteiner. 2020. "Spatial variation in biodiversity loss across China under multiple environmental stressors." Science Advances 6, no. 47: eabd0952.

Journal article
Published: 16 November 2020 in Science of The Total Environment
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As the pressure to take action against global warming is growing in urgency, scenarios that incorporate multiple social, economic and environmental drivers become increasingly critical to support governments and other stakeholders in planning climate change mitigation or adaptation actions. This has led to the recent explosion of future scenario analyses at multiple scales, further accelerated since the development of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) research community Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). While RCPs have been widely applied to climate models to produce climate scenarios at multiple scales for investigating climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities (CCIAV), SSPs are only recently being scaled for different geographical and sectoral applications. This is seen in the UK where significant investment has produced the RCP-based UK Climate Projections (UKCP18), but no equivalent UK version of the SSPs exists. We address this need by developing a set of multi-driver qualitative and quantitative UK-SSPs, following a state-of-the-art scenario methodology that integrates national stakeholder knowledge on locally-relevant drivers and indicators with higher level information from European and global SSPs. This was achieved through an intensive participatory process that facilitated the combination of bottom-up and top-down approaches to develop a set of UK-specific SSPs that are locally comprehensive, yet consistent with the global and European SSPs. The resulting scenarios balance the importance of consistency and legitimacy, demonstrating that divergence is not necessarily the result of inconsistency, nor comes as a choice to contextualise narratives at the appropriate scale.

ACS Style

Simona Pedde; Paula A. Harrison; Ian P. Holman; Gary D. Powney; Stephen Lofts; Reto Schmucki; Marc Gramberger; James M. Bullock. Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK. Science of The Total Environment 2020, 756, 143172 .

AMA Style

Simona Pedde, Paula A. Harrison, Ian P. Holman, Gary D. Powney, Stephen Lofts, Reto Schmucki, Marc Gramberger, James M. Bullock. Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK. Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 756 ():143172.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Simona Pedde; Paula A. Harrison; Ian P. Holman; Gary D. Powney; Stephen Lofts; Reto Schmucki; Marc Gramberger; James M. Bullock. 2020. "Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK." Science of The Total Environment 756, no. : 143172.

Journal article
Published: 26 October 2020 in Journal of Vegetation Science
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ACS Style

Péter Török; James M. Bullock; Borja Jiménez‐Alfaro; Judit Sonkoly. The importance of dispersal and species establishment in vegetation dynamics and resilience. Journal of Vegetation Science 2020, 31, 1 .

AMA Style

Péter Török, James M. Bullock, Borja Jiménez‐Alfaro, Judit Sonkoly. The importance of dispersal and species establishment in vegetation dynamics and resilience. Journal of Vegetation Science. 2020; 31 (6):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Péter Török; James M. Bullock; Borja Jiménez‐Alfaro; Judit Sonkoly. 2020. "The importance of dispersal and species establishment in vegetation dynamics and resilience." Journal of Vegetation Science 31, no. 6: 1.

Journal article
Published: 25 July 2020 in Science of The Total Environment
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Many ecosystem services (ES) models exist to support sustainable development decisions. However, most ES studies use only a single modelling framework and, because of a lack of validation data, rarely assess model accuracy for the study area. In line with other research themes which have high model uncertainty, such as climate change, ensembles of ES models may better serve decision-makers by providing more robust and accurate estimates, as well as provide indications of uncertainty when validation data are not available. To illustrate the benefits of an ensemble approach, we highlight the variation between alternative models, demonstrating that there are large geographic regions where decisions based on individual models are not robust. We test if ensembles are more accurate by comparing the ensemble accuracy of multiple models for six ES against validation data across sub-Saharan Africa with the accuracy of individual models. We find that ensembles are better predictors of ES, being 5.0–6.1% more accurate than individual models. We also find that the uncertainty (i.e. variation among constituent models) of the model ensemble is negatively correlated with accuracy and so can be used as a proxy for accuracy when validation is not possible (e.g. in data-deficient areas or when developing scenarios). Since ensembles are more robust, accurate and convey uncertainty, we recommend that ensemble modelling should be more widely implemented within ES science to better support policy choices and implementation.

ACS Style

Simon Willcock; Danny A.P. Hooftman; Ryan Blanchard; Terence P. Dawson; Thomas Hickler; Mats Lindeskog; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Belinda Reyers; Sophie M. Watts; Felix Eigenbrod; James M. Bullock. Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty. Science of The Total Environment 2020, 747, 141006 .

AMA Style

Simon Willcock, Danny A.P. Hooftman, Ryan Blanchard, Terence P. Dawson, Thomas Hickler, Mats Lindeskog, Javier Martinez-Lopez, Belinda Reyers, Sophie M. Watts, Felix Eigenbrod, James M. Bullock. Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty. Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 747 ():141006.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Simon Willcock; Danny A.P. Hooftman; Ryan Blanchard; Terence P. Dawson; Thomas Hickler; Mats Lindeskog; Javier Martinez-Lopez; Belinda Reyers; Sophie M. Watts; Felix Eigenbrod; James M. Bullock. 2020. "Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty." Science of The Total Environment 747, no. : 141006.

Original article
Published: 30 June 2020 in Plant Pathology
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Xylella fastidiosa is an important insect‐vectored bacterial plant pathogen with a wide host range, causing significant economic impact in the agricultural and horticultural industries. Once restricted to the Americas, severe European outbreaks have been discovered recently in Italy, Spain, France and Portugal. The Italian outbreak was detected in Puglia in 2013 and has spread over 100 km, killing millions of olive trees, and is still expanding. To date, quantified assessment of important epidemiological parameters useful for risk assessment and management, such as transmission rates, asymptomatic periods and time to death in field populations, has been lacking. This is due to the emergent and novel nature of the outbreak and length of time needed to monitor the course of disease progression. To address this, we developed a Bayesian method to infer epidemiological parameters by fitting and comparing compartmental epidemiological models to short snapshots of disease progression observed in multiple field plots. We estimated that each symptomatic infected tree is able to infect around 19 trees per year (95% credible range 14‐26). The asymptomatic stage was estimated to have low to negligible infectivity and to last an average of approximately 1.2 years (95% credible range 1.0‐1.3 years). Tree desiccation was estimated to occur approximately 4.3 years (95% credible range 4.0‐4.6 years) after symptom appearance. However, we were unable to estimate the infectiousness of desiccated trees from the data. Our method could be used more widely to make early estimates of epidemiological parameters in other emerging disease outbreaks where symptom expression is slow.

ACS Style

Steven M. White; Juan A. Navas‐Cortés; James M. Bullock; Donato Boscia; Daniel S. Chapman. Estimating the epidemiology of emerging Xylella fastidiosa outbreaks in olives. Plant Pathology 2020, 69, 1403 -1413.

AMA Style

Steven M. White, Juan A. Navas‐Cortés, James M. Bullock, Donato Boscia, Daniel S. Chapman. Estimating the epidemiology of emerging Xylella fastidiosa outbreaks in olives. Plant Pathology. 2020; 69 (8):1403-1413.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Steven M. White; Juan A. Navas‐Cortés; James M. Bullock; Donato Boscia; Daniel S. Chapman. 2020. "Estimating the epidemiology of emerging Xylella fastidiosa outbreaks in olives." Plant Pathology 69, no. 8: 1403-1413.

Special feature article
Published: 23 April 2020 in Journal of Vegetation Science
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Question Human‐mediated dispersal (HMD) comprises human‐vectored dispersal (HVD; direct movement of organisms by people) and human‐altered dispersal (HAD; indirect change in dispersal patterns through human alteration of ecosystems). In the vegetation dynamics literature, human influence has primarily been studied in terms of perturbations to natural communities. Except for non‐native invasions, the role of HMD in vegetation dynamics has rarely been considered. Given the increasing human population and its pervasive impacts across the World, it is necessary to understand the different ways in which HMD drives changes in vegetation dynamics. Importantly how large are these influences and how do they disrupt natural processes? Methods We reviewed studies examining aspects of HMD in relation to vegetation dynamics, and used the broader literature to inform a conceptual synthesis of the impacts of HMD on vegetation dynamics. Results & Conclusions The propensity to be affected by HMD varies among species, and this is related to seed and plant traits. Together, these effects combine to determine whether HMD disrupts or enhances seed dispersal into a community. The ultimate consequences of changed arrival of seeds into a community is determined by the strength of the environmental and biotic filters, which govern the establishment and persistence of species. The effect of accidental HVD depends whether it follows the same rules as for natural dispersal; indeed humans might replace lost natural dispersers and thus enhance community resilience. Intentional HVD through sowing or planting, will generally be highly disruptive especially as it often involves associated management. Traditionally, HAD has been considered to disrupt vegetation dynamics through, e.g., fragmentation or loss of natural dispersers. But, an HMD perspective can inform actions related to HAD that increase resilience, e.g. green infrastructure or vegetation management. Our framework encourages researchers to consider HMD holistically, to understand how the increasing human footprint might affect vegetation dynamics and resilience under future change.

ACS Style

James M. Bullock; Gesine Pufal. Human‐mediated dispersal as a driver of vegetation dynamics: A conceptual synthesis. Journal of Vegetation Science 2020, 31, 943 -953.

AMA Style

James M. Bullock, Gesine Pufal. Human‐mediated dispersal as a driver of vegetation dynamics: A conceptual synthesis. Journal of Vegetation Science. 2020; 31 (6):943-953.

Chicago/Turabian Style

James M. Bullock; Gesine Pufal. 2020. "Human‐mediated dispersal as a driver of vegetation dynamics: A conceptual synthesis." Journal of Vegetation Science 31, no. 6: 943-953.

Articles
Published: 22 April 2020 in Ecology
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As anthropogenic impacts on the natural world escalate, there is increasing interest in the role of humans in dispersing seeds. But the consequences of this Human‐Mediated Dispersal (HMD) on plant spatial dynamics are little studied. In this paper we ask how secondary dispersal by HMD affects the dynamics of a natural plant metapopulation. In addition to dispersal between patches, we suggest within‐patch processes can be critical. To address this, we assess how variation in local population dynamics, caused by small‐scale disturbances, affects metapopulation size. We created an empirically‐based model with stochastic population dynamics and dispersal among patches, which represented a real‐world, cliff‐top metapopulation of wild cabbage Brassica oleracea. We collected demographic data from multiple populations by tagging plants over eight years. We assessed seed survival, and establishment and survival of seedlings in intact vegetation vs small disturbances. We modelled primary dispersal by wind using field data, and used experimental data on secondary HMD by hikers. We monitored occupancy patterns over a 14‐year period in the real metapopulation. Disturbance had large effects on local population growth rates, by increasing seedling establishment and survival. This meant that the modelled metapopulation grew in size only when the area disturbed in each patch was above 35%. In these growing metapopulations, although only 0.2% of seeds underwent HMD, this greatly enhanced metapopulation growth rates. Similarly, HMD allowed more colonisations in declining metapopulations under low disturbance, and this slowed the rate of decline. The real metapopulation showed patterns of varying patch occupancy over the survey years, which were related to habitat quality, but also positively to human activity along the cliffs, hinting at beneficial effects of humans. These findings illustrate that realistic changes to dispersal or demography, specifically by humans, can have fundamental effects on the viability of a species at the landscape scale.

ACS Style

James M. Bullock; Matthias C. Wichmann; Rosemary S. Hails; David J. Hodgson; Matt J. Alexander; Kathryn Morley; Tatjana Knopp; Lucy E. Ridding; Danny Hooftman. Human‐mediated dispersal and disturbance shape the metapopulation dynamics of a long‐lived herb. Ecology 2020, 101, e03087 .

AMA Style

James M. Bullock, Matthias C. Wichmann, Rosemary S. Hails, David J. Hodgson, Matt J. Alexander, Kathryn Morley, Tatjana Knopp, Lucy E. Ridding, Danny Hooftman. Human‐mediated dispersal and disturbance shape the metapopulation dynamics of a long‐lived herb. Ecology. 2020; 101 (8):e03087.

Chicago/Turabian Style

James M. Bullock; Matthias C. Wichmann; Rosemary S. Hails; David J. Hodgson; Matt J. Alexander; Kathryn Morley; Tatjana Knopp; Lucy E. Ridding; Danny Hooftman. 2020. "Human‐mediated dispersal and disturbance shape the metapopulation dynamics of a long‐lived herb." Ecology 101, no. 8: e03087.

Article
Published: 05 March 2020 in Plant Ecology
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Analysis of long-term vegetation change is limited. Furthermore most studies evaluating change only examine two snapshots in time, which makes it difficult to define rates of change and accurately assess potential drivers. To assess long-term change in calcareous grassland over multiple time periods, we re-surveyed a transect study undertaken at Parsonage Down National Nature Reserve, Wiltshire, southern England in 1970 and 1990 by T. Wells. We examined differences in soil properties and species traits in each of the survey years to understand potential drivers of vegetation change, including nitrogen deposition and grazing management. There was a clear shift in species composition, combined with significant declines in species richness and diversity between 1970 and 2016, with the greater rate of change occurring between 1990 and 2016. A significant increase in soil total nitrogen was found, which was significantly associated with the decline in species diversity between 1970 and 1990. Significant changes in community-weighted mean traits were identified for plant height (increasing), specific leaf area (decreasing), grazing tolerance (decreasing) and Ellenberg N (decreasing) between 1970 and 2016. By using survey data from multiple time periods, we suggest that N deposition may have contributed towards community changes between 1970 and 1990, as indicated by the change in soil properties and the associated decline in species diversity. Vegetation change between 1990 and 2016 is likely to be largely attributable to a decline in grazing pressure, indicated by the increase in taller species and a decrease in grazing tolerance.

ACS Style

Lucy E. Ridding; James M. Bullock; Oliver L. Pescott; Peter Hawes; Robin Walls; M. Glória Pereira; Sarah A. Thacker; Patrick O. Keenan; Ulrike Dragosits; Richard F. Pywell. Long-term change in calcareous grassland vegetation and drivers over three time periods between 1970 and 2016. Plant Ecology 2020, 221, 377 -394.

AMA Style

Lucy E. Ridding, James M. Bullock, Oliver L. Pescott, Peter Hawes, Robin Walls, M. Glória Pereira, Sarah A. Thacker, Patrick O. Keenan, Ulrike Dragosits, Richard F. Pywell. Long-term change in calcareous grassland vegetation and drivers over three time periods between 1970 and 2016. Plant Ecology. 2020; 221 (5):377-394.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lucy E. Ridding; James M. Bullock; Oliver L. Pescott; Peter Hawes; Robin Walls; M. Glória Pereira; Sarah A. Thacker; Patrick O. Keenan; Ulrike Dragosits; Richard F. Pywell. 2020. "Long-term change in calcareous grassland vegetation and drivers over three time periods between 1970 and 2016." Plant Ecology 221, no. 5: 377-394.

Research article
Published: 20 January 2020 in Landscape Ecology
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Context Maximising insect pollination of mass-flowering crops is a widely-discussed approach to sustainable agriculture. Management actions can target landscape-scale semi-natural habitat, cropping patterns or field-scale features, but little is known about their relative effectiveness. Objective To test how landscape composition (area of mass-flowering crops and semi-natural habitat) and field-scale habitat (margins and hedges) affect pollinator species richness, abundance, and pollen deposition within crop fields. Methods We surveyed all flower visitors (Diptera, Coleoptera and Hymenoptera) in oilseed rape fields and related them to landscape composition and field features. Flower visitors were classified as bees, non-bee pollinators and brassica specialists. Total pollen deposition by individual taxa was estimated using single visit pollen deposition on stigmas combined with insect abundance. Results The area of mass-flowering crop had a negative effect on the species richness and abundance of bees in fields, but not other flower visitors. The area of semi-natural habitat in the surrounding landscape had a positive effect on bees, but was not as important as the area of mass-flowering crop. Taxonomic richness and abundance varied significantly between years for non-bee pollinators. Greater cover of mass-flowering crops surrounding fields had a negative effect on pollen deposition, but only when non-bee pollinator numbers were reduced. Conclusions Management choices that result in landscape homogenisation, such as large areas of mass-flowering crops, may reduce pollination services by reducing the numbers of bees visiting fields. Non-bee insect pollinators may buffer these landscape effects on pollen deposition, and management to support their populations should be considered.

ACS Style

Rosalind F. Shaw; Benjamin B. Phillips; Toby Doyle; Judith K. Pell; John W. Redhead; Joanna Savage; Ben A. Woodcock; James M. Bullock; Juliet L. Osborne. Mass-flowering crops have a greater impact than semi-natural habitat on crop pollinators and pollen deposition. Landscape Ecology 2020, 35, 513 -527.

AMA Style

Rosalind F. Shaw, Benjamin B. Phillips, Toby Doyle, Judith K. Pell, John W. Redhead, Joanna Savage, Ben A. Woodcock, James M. Bullock, Juliet L. Osborne. Mass-flowering crops have a greater impact than semi-natural habitat on crop pollinators and pollen deposition. Landscape Ecology. 2020; 35 (2):513-527.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rosalind F. Shaw; Benjamin B. Phillips; Toby Doyle; Judith K. Pell; John W. Redhead; Joanna Savage; Ben A. Woodcock; James M. Bullock; Juliet L. Osborne. 2020. "Mass-flowering crops have a greater impact than semi-natural habitat on crop pollinators and pollen deposition." Landscape Ecology 35, no. 2: 513-527.

Review
Published: 03 December 2019 in Journal of Applied Ecology
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1.Roads form a vast, rapidly growing global network that has diverse, detrimental ecological impacts. However, the habitats that border roads (‘road verges’) form a parallel network that might help mitigate these impacts and provide additional benefits (ecosystem services; ES). 2.We evaluate the capacity of road verges to provide ES by reviewing existing research and considering their relevant characteristics; area, connectivity, shape, and contextual ES supply and demand. We consider the present situation, and how this is likely to change based on future projections for growth in road extent, traffic densities and urban populations. 3.Road verges provide a wide range of ES, including biodiversity provision, regulating services (e.g. air and water filtration) and cultural services (e.g. health and aesthetic benefits by providing access to nature), but also displace other habitats and provide ecosystem disservices (e.g. plant allergens and damage to infrastructure). Globally, road verges may currently cover 270,000 km2 and store 0.015 Gt C year‐1, which will further increase with 70% projected growth in the global road network. 4.Road verges are well placed to mitigate traffic pollution and address demand for ES in surrounding ES‐impoverished landscapes, thereby improving human health and wellbeing in urban areas, and improving agricultural production and sustainability in farmland. Demand for ES provided by road verges will likely increase due to projected growth in traffic densities and urban populations, though traffic pollution will be reduced by technological advances (e.g. electric vehicles). Road verges form a highly connected network, which may enhance ES provision but facilitate the dispersal of invasive species and increase vehicle‐wildlife collisions. 5.Synthesis and applications. Road verges offer a significant opportunity to mitigate the negative ecological effects of roads and to address demand for ecosystem services (ES) in urban and agricultural landscapes. Their capacity to provide ES might be enhanced considerably if they were strategically designed and managed for environmental outcomes, namely by optimizing the selection, position and management of plant species and habitats. Specific opportunities include reducing mowing frequencies and planting trees in large verges. Road verge management for ES must consider safety guidelines, financial costs and ecosystem disservices, but is likely to provide long‐term financial returns if environmental benefits are considered.

ACS Style

Benjamin B. Phillips; James M. Bullock; Juliet L. Osborne; Kevin J. Gaston. Ecosystem service provision by road verges. Journal of Applied Ecology 2019, 57, 488 -501.

AMA Style

Benjamin B. Phillips, James M. Bullock, Juliet L. Osborne, Kevin J. Gaston. Ecosystem service provision by road verges. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2019; 57 (3):488-501.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin B. Phillips; James M. Bullock; Juliet L. Osborne; Kevin J. Gaston. 2019. "Ecosystem service provision by road verges." Journal of Applied Ecology 57, no. 3: 488-501.

Journal article
Published: 18 July 2019 in Journal of Applied Ecology
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ACS Style

Benjamin B. Phillips; Kevin J. Gaston; James M. Bullock; Juliet L. Osborne. Road verges support pollinators in agricultural landscapes, but are diminished by heavy traffic and summer cutting. Journal of Applied Ecology 2019, 56, 2316 -2327.

AMA Style

Benjamin B. Phillips, Kevin J. Gaston, James M. Bullock, Juliet L. Osborne. Road verges support pollinators in agricultural landscapes, but are diminished by heavy traffic and summer cutting. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2019; 56 (10):2316-2327.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin B. Phillips; Kevin J. Gaston; James M. Bullock; Juliet L. Osborne. 2019. "Road verges support pollinators in agricultural landscapes, but are diminished by heavy traffic and summer cutting." Journal of Applied Ecology 56, no. 10: 2316-2327.