Parking Guidance System is an important component of the Intelligent Transportation System. Unoccupied parking space prediction is a crucial technology of the system. So far there have been no reliable prediction methods. Therefore, to predict the future unoccupied parking space of parking lot becomes an important research subject. Based on the chaotic time series forecasting methods of historical data, the paper developed a weighted one-rank local-region method to predict unoccupied parking space. The model was verified with observed data of a Parking Guidance System in Beijing, China. The results show that the prediction model is precise and model has a great practical value.

This paper presents a reliability-based method for the design of intersection sight distance (ISD) at traffic roundabouts using the linear and nonlinear deceleration profiles of the entry vehicles. The reliability method is based on the first-order second moment method which is simple and relatively accurate compared with advanced methods. The nonlinear deceleration profile includes a shape parameter that produces the linear profile as a special case. Deterministic and reliability-based formulas for the required ISD for an approaching vehicle are developed for the entry vehicle on the left and the vehicle on the circulating roadway. Then, the design values of the ISD legs, applicable to any type of roundabout, are presented for different probabilities of non-compliance (P_nc) and different coefficients of variations. For the special case of single-lane symmetrical roundabouts, which have a well-defined geometry, the lateral clearance needs are established. The sensitivity analysis shows that ISD is very sensitive to both the mean and variance of the critical headway. The results show that the deterministic method results in ISD values that correspond to a very small P_nc, indicating that the method is very conservative. The proposed method, which provides flexibility in selecting ISD for any given P_nc, should be of interest to highway designers and practitioners to promote roundabout safety.

This paper analyzes the utility calculation principle of travelers from the perspective of mental accounting and proposes a travel choice behavior model that considers travel time and cost (MA-TC model). Then, a questionnaire is designed to analyze the results of the travel choice under different decision-making scenarios. Model parameters are estimated using nonlinear regression, and the utility calculation principles are developed under different hypothetical scenarios. Then, new expressions for the utility function under deterministic and risky conditions are presented. For verification, the nonlinear correlation coefficient and hit rate are used to compare the proposed MA-TC model with the other two models: (1) the classical prospect theory with travel time and cost (PT-TC model) and (2) mental accounting based on the original hedonic editing criterion (MA-HE model). The results show that model parameters under deterministic and risky conditions are pretty different. In the deterministic case, travelers have similar sensitivity to the change in gain and loss of travel time and cost. The prediction accuracy of the MA-TC model is 3% lower than the PT-TC model and 6% higher than the MA-HE model. Under risky conditions, travelers are more sensitive to the change in loss than to the change in gain. Additionally, travelers tend to overestimate small probabilities and underestimate high probabilities when losing more than when gaining. The prediction accuracy of the MA-TC model is 2% higher than the PT-TC model and 6% higher than the MA-HE model.

In this study, the influence of traveler's departure time choice in day-to-day dynamic evolution of traffic flow in a transportation network is investigated. Combining historical information and real-time information, a dynamic evolution model of traffic flow with a study period divided into two intervals is proposed for a simple two-link network. Then, the evolution of network traffic flow is investigated using numerical experiments. Three types of information are considered: (1) only historical information, (2) only real-time information, and (3) both historical and real-time information. The results show that the dynamic evolution of network traffic flow under the three types of information is similar. However, the possibility of chaos occurrence under both historical and real-time information is smaller than that under two individual types of information. When chaos occurs, the chaotic behavior in traffic-flow evolution under only real-time information is relatively less complex than that under the other two types of information.

This paper examines the travelers’ day-to-day route-choice behavior with Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) through laboratory-like experimental method. Five groups of route-choice behavior experiments are designed to simulate actual daily behavior of travelers. In the experiment, subjects are provided with different levels of the complete road network information to simulate the proportion of subjects equipped with ATIS equipment (i.e., ATIS market penetration) and choose the routes repeatedly. The subject’s route-choice behavior under different proportions of complete road network information is analyzed, and the strategy of releasing such complete information is determined when the performance of road network system is the best. The Braess network which consists of three routes was used in the experiment and analysis. The results show that the fluctuation of traffic flow runs through the entire experiments, but it tends to converge to user equilibrium. When the market penetration is 75%, both the fluctuation of traffic flow and the tendency of subjects to change routes are the smallest, so the road network system is the most stable. This interesting result indicates that releasing traffic information to all travelers is not the best. Other results show that the travel times of the three routes in the five groups of experiments tend to converge to and finally fluctuate around user-equilibrium travel time. With the increase in ATIS market penetration, the average travel time of subjects in each round tends to increase. The overall trend of the five groups of experiments is that as the number of route switches increases, the average travel time increases. The results also indicate that releasing traffic information to all travelers cannot weaken the Braess Paradox. On the contrary, the more travelers are provided with traffic information, the less likely it will weaken the Braess Paradox.

This paper proposes a traffic-flow evolutionary model under a dual updating mechanism that describes the day-to-day (DTD) dynamics of traffic flow and travel cost. To illustrate the concept, a simple two-route network is considered. Based on the nonlinear dynamic theory, the equilibrium stability condition of the system is derived and the condition for the division between the bifurcation and chaotic states of the system is determined. The characteristics of the DTD dynamic evolution of network traffic flow are investigated using numerical experiments. The results show that the system is absolutely stable when the sensitivity of travelers toward the route cost parameter (θ) is equal to or less than 0.923. The bifurcation appears in the system when θ is larger than 0.923. For values of θ equal to or larger than 4.402, the chaos appears in the evolution of the system. The results also show that with the appearance of chaos, the boundary and interior crises begin to appear in the system when θ is larger than 6.773 and 10.403, respectively. The evolution of network traffic flow is always stable when the proportion of travelers who do not change the route is 84% or greater.