Carlos Antonio Gutierrez Ayala

Dr. Carlos Antonio Gutierrez Ayala

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Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

1Year (2026-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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6 May 2026 in Diagnostics
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
Francesco SessaFrancesco Sessa
Francesco Sessa
CGClelia Grippaldi
Clelia Grippaldi
Massimiliano EspositoMassimiliano Esposito
Massimiliano Esposito
CACarlos Antonio Gutierrez Ayala
Carlos Antonio Gutierrez Ayala
Emina DerviševićEmina Dervišević
Emina Dervišević
Monica SalernoMonica Salerno
Monica Salerno
Background/Objectives: Accurate post-mortem interval (PMI) estimation becomes increasingly difficult when bodies decompose under extreme heat. Hyperthermal Mediterranean environments accelerate soft-tissue degradation, induce early mummification, and distort classical thanatological indicators, often resulting in substantial PMI overestimation. This study analyzes three forensic cases affected by climate-driven decomposition anomalies and presents a climate-adaptive, AI-assisted diagnostic framework applied uniformly across all cases to improve PMI interpretation. Methods: A retrospective case series analysis was conducted on three individuals recovered during summer heatwaves. Crime scene investigation, post-mortem computed tomography (PMCT), autopsy, and genetic identification were integrated with 5–15-year meteorological datasets. Classical PMI estimations were compared with circumstantial data. A multimodal AI model, incorporating environmental features, decomposition morphology, and microenvironmental modifiers, was operationalized for each case using a hybrid Random Forest–LSTM architecture. Engineered indices included Accumulated Degree Days (ADD), a Decomposition Index, and climate-stress metrics (Thermal Load Index, Desiccation Pressure Factor, Microenvironmental Distortion Coefficient). Quantile regression provided calibrated prediction intervals. Results: Morphological assessments overestimated PMI in every case, suggesting intervals of 1–6 months despite true PMIs of approximately 20 days (Cases 1–2) or 36–48 h (Case 3). The AI model yielded conceptual outputs more consistent with verified PMIs, ~21 days (Case 1), ~23 days (Case 2), and ~42 h (Case 3), each accompanied by 50% and 90% prediction intervals. Explainability analyses identified thermal load, desiccation pressure, and microenvironmental distortion, particularly insulation in Case 3, as dominant drivers. Conclusions: Extreme heat fundamentally alters decomposition trajectories, rendering classical PMI methods unreliable. Applying a climate-aware, AI-assisted diagnostic framework across all three cases improved interpretability, providing uncertainty-aware estimates aligned with true PMIs. The AI framework is presented as a conceptual, non-trained, proof-of-concept system, and reported outputs represent operational demonstrations rather than validated predictions, offering a promising foundation for next-generation PMI diagnostics in hyperthermal forensic settings.