Summary: Mathematical proofs show that rate estimates, for example of mortality and recruitment, will decrease with increasing census interval when obtained from censuses of non‐homogeneous populations. This census interval effect could be confounding or perhaps even driving conclusions from comparative studies involving such rate estimates. We quantify this artefact for tropical forest trees, develop correction methods and re‐assess some previously published conclusions about forest dynamics. Mortality rates of > 50 species at each of seven sites in Africa, Latin America, Asia and Australia were used as subpopulations to simulate stand‐level mortality rates in a heterogeneous population when census intervals varied: all sites showed decreasing stand mortality rates with increasing census interval length. Stand‐level mortality rates from 14 multicensus long‐term forest plots from Africa, Latin America, Asia and Australia also showed that, on average, mortality rates decreased with increasing census interval length. Mortality, recruitment or turnover rates with differing census interval lengths can be compared using the mean rate of decline from the 14 long‐term plots to standardize estimates to a common census length using λcorr= λ × t0.08, where λ is the rate and t is time between censuses in years. This simple general correction should reduce the bias associated with census interval variation, where it is unavoidable. Re‐analysis of published results shows that the pan‐tropical increase in stem turnover rates over the late 20th century cannot be attributed to combining data with differing census intervals. In addition, after correction, Old World tropical forests do not have significantly lower turnover rates than New World sites, as previously reported. Our pan‐tropical best estimate adjusted stem turnover rate is 1.81 ± 0.16% a−1 (mean ± 95% CI, n = 65). As differing census intervals affect comparisons of mortality, recruitment and turnover rates, and can lead to erroneous conclusions, standardized field methods, the calculation of local correction factors at sites where adequate data are available, or the use of our general standardizing formula to take account of sample intervals, are to be recommended.
The current distribution of forest genetic resources on Earth is the result of a combination of natural processes and human actions. Over time, tree populations have become adapted to their habitats including the local ecological disturbances they face. As the planet enters a phase of human-induced climate change of unprecedented speed and magnitude, however, previously locally-adapted populations are rendered less suitable for new conditions, and 'natural' biotic and abiotic disturbances are taken outside their historic distribution, frequency and intensity ranges. Tree populations rely on phenotypic plasticity to survive in extant locations, on genetic adaptation to modify their local phenotypic optimum or on migration to new suitable environmental conditions. The rate of required change, however, may outpace the ability to respond, and tree species and populations may become locally extinct after specific, but as yet unknown and unquantified, tipping points are reached. Here, we review the importance of forest genetic resources as a source of evolutionary potential for adaptation to changes in climate and other ecological factors. We particularly consider climate-related responses in the context of linkages to disturbances such as pests, diseases and fire, and associated feedback loops. The importance of management strategies to conserve evolutionary potential is emphasised and recommendations for policy-makers are provided
With the growing demands from a population expected to reach 9 billion people by 2050, it is unclear how our current global food system will meet future food needs. Ensuring that all people have access to adequate and nutritious food produced in an environmentally and socio-culturally sustainable manner is one of the greatest challenges of our time. “Sustainable diets” have been proposed as a multidimensional framework to address the need for nutritious and adequate food in the context of the many challenges facing the world today: reducing poverty and hunger, improving environmental health, enhancing human well-being and health, and strengthening local food networks, sustainable livelihoods and cultural heritage. This paper examines the contribution of forests and trees to sustainable diets, covering among others, nutritional, cultural, environmental and provisioning aspects. The literature reviewed highlight major opportunities to strengthen the contribution of forest and tree foods to sustainable diets. However, several constraints need to be removed. They relate to: cultural aspects, sustainable use of non-wood forest products, organization of forest food provisioning, limited knowledge of forest food composition, challenges in adapting management of forests and trees to account for forest foods, and in integrating forest biodiversity into complex landscapes managed for multiple benefits. Finally, the paper identifies research gaps and makes recommendations to enhance the contribution of forest foods to sustainable diets through increased awareness and better integration of information and knowledge on nutritious forest foods into national nutrition strategies and programs.