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Severe bacterial infections remain a major challenge in intensive care units because of their high prevalence and mortality. Adequate antibiotic exposure has been associated with clinical success in critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to investigate the target attainment of standard meropenem dosing in a heterogeneous critically ill population, to quantify the impact of the full renal function spectrum on meropenem exposure and target attainment, and ultimately to translate the findings into a tool for practical application. A prospective observational single-centre study was performed with critically ill patients with severe infections receiving standard dosing of meropenem. Serial blood samples were drawn over 4 study days to determine meropenem serum concentrations. Renal function was assessed by creatinine clearance according to the Cockcroft and Gault equation (CLCRCG). Variability in meropenem serum concentrations was quantified at the middle and end of each monitored dosing interval. The attainment of two pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic targets (100%T>MIC, 50%T>4×MIC) was evaluated for minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of 2 mg/L and 8 mg/L and standard meropenem dosing (1000 mg, 30-minute infusion, every 8 h). Furthermore, we assessed the impact of CLCRCG on meropenem concentrations and target attainment and developed a tool for risk assessment of target non-attainment. Large inter- and intra-patient variability in meropenem concentrations was observed in the critically ill population (n = 48). Attainment of the target 100%T>MIC was merely 48.4% and 20.6%, given MIC values of 2 mg/L and 8 mg/L, respectively, and similar for the target 50%T>4×MIC. A hyperbolic relationship between CLCRCG (25–255 ml/minute) and meropenem serum concentrations at the end of the dosing interval (C8h) was derived. For infections with pathogens of MIC 2 mg/L, mild renal impairment up to augmented renal function was identified as a risk factor for target non-attainment (for MIC 8 mg/L, additionally, moderate renal impairment). The investigated standard meropenem dosing regimen appeared to result in insufficient meropenem exposure in a considerable fraction of critically ill patients. An easy- and free-to-use tool (the MeroRisk Calculator) for assessing the risk of target non-attainment for a given renal function and MIC value was developed. Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01793012 . Registered on 24 January 2013.

Model‐informed precision dosing (MIPD) using therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring offers the opportunity to significantly improve the efficacy and safety of drug therapies. Current strategies comprise model‐informed dosing tables or are based on maximum a posteriori estimates. These approaches, however, lack a quantification of uncertainty and/or consider only part of the available patient‐specific information. We propose three novel approaches for MIPD using Bayesian data assimilation (DA) and/or reinforcement learning (RL) to control neutropenia, the major dose‐limiting side effect in anticancer chemotherapy. These approaches have the potential to substantially reduce the incidence of life‐threatening grade 4 and subtherapeutic grade 0 neutropenia compared with existing approaches. We further show that RL allows to gain further insights by identifying patient factors that drive dose decisions. Due to its flexibility, the proposed combined DA‐RL approach can easily be extended to integrate multiple end points or patient‐reported outcomes, thereby promising important benefits for future personalized therapies.

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T cell therapy has revolutionized treatment of relapsed/refractory non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). However, since 36–60% of patients relapse, early response prediction is crucial. We present a novel population quantitative systems pharmacology model, integrating literature knowledge on physiology, immunology, and adoptive cell therapy together with 133 CAR-T cell phenotype, 1943 cytokine, and 48 metabolic tumor measurements. The model well described post-infusion concentrations of four CAR-T cell phenotypes and CD19⁺ metabolic tumor volume over 3 months after CAR-T cell infusion. Leveraging the model, we identified a low expansion subpopulation with significantly lower CAR-T cell expansion capacities amongst 19 NHL patients. Together with two patient-/therapy-related factors (autologous stem cell transplantation, CD4⁺/CD8⁺ T cells), the low expansion subpopulation explained 2/3 of the interindividual variability in the CAR-T cell expansion capacities. Moreover, the low expansion subpopulation had poor prognosis as only 1/4 of the low expansion subpopulation compared to 2/3 of the reference population were still alive after 24 months. We translated the expansion capacities into a clinical composite score (CCS) of ‘Maximum naïve CAR-T cell concentrations/Baseline tumor burden’ ratio and propose a CCS_TN-value > 0.00136 (cells·µL⁻¹·mL⁻¹ as predictor for survival. Once validated in a larger cohort, the model will foster refining survival prediction and solutions to enhance NHL CAR-T cell therapy response.

Model‐informed precision dosing (MIPD) is a quantitative dosing framework that combines prior knowledge on the drug‐disease‐patient system with patient data from therapeutic drug/ biomarker monitoring (TDM) to support individualized dosing in ongoing treatment. Structural models and prior parameter distributions used in MIPD approaches typically build on prior clinical trials that involve only a limited number of patients selected according to some exclusion/inclusion criteria. Compared to the prior clinical trial population, the patient population in clinical practice can be expected to also include altered behavior and/or increased interindividual variability, the extent of which, however, is typically unknown. Here, we address the question of how to adapt and refine models on the level of the model parameters to better reflect this real‐world diversity. We propose an approach for continued learning across patients during MIPD using a sequential hierarchical Bayesian framework. The approach builds on two stages to separate the update of the individual patient parameters from updating the population parameters. Consequently, it enables continued learning across hospitals or study centers, because only summary patient data (on the level of model parameters) need to be shared, but no individual TDM data. We illustrate this continued learning approach with neutrophil‐guided dosing of paclitaxel. The present study constitutes an important step toward building confidence in MIPD and eventually establishing MIPD increasingly in everyday therapeutic use.