The rupture of mine-tailings dams can severely contaminate rivers, because released tailings can interact with water for years keeping contaminant concentrations high. The general purpose of this study was to examine the rupture of B1 tailings dam in Ferro-Carvão stream (municipality of Brumadinho, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil), which occurred in 25 January 2019 and contaminated the main water course (Paraopeba River) with 2.8 Mm³ of metal-rich tailings. The specific purpose was to assess the percentage of non-conforming concentrations following the event, considering the Normative Deliberation COPAM/CERH-MG no. 1. The results showed non-conforming aluminum, iron, manganese, lead, phosphorus and turbidity concentrations, clearly above pre-rupture averages, especially in the rainy period. The catastrophe triggered the suspension of Paraopeba River as drinking water source to the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (BHMR; 6 million people). Since then, the supply to the BHMR became an everyday challenge to water management authorities, because the Paraopeba source represented a 30% share. Mitigation measures are therefore urgently needed. As complementary objective to this study, we aimed to verify the possibility to restore drinking water supply through conventional treatment. The treatability of Paraopeba River water was assessed by the Raw Water Quality Index considering the rainy and dry periods in separate. The results suggested the possibility to lift up the suspension in the dry period, improving the regional water security. Considering the huge dataset on which this study is standing, our results are generalizable to similar events with sparser information.

Human land use land cover changes (LULCCs) can cause impacts on watershed lands and on water resources. The regions with land use conflict suffer more intense erosion processes due to their high slope and drainage density. The study intends to evaluate scenarios with an absence of land use conflict and verify if it can contribute to reductions in surface runoff, avoiding the carriage of tailings to river channels. In the study, the SWAT model was used in the hydrological modeling of the Paraopeba River watershed affected by the rupture. The results show that the SWAT model was able to reproduce the flow data with good and very good performances. The quality indicators in the calibration step were NSE = 0.66, R² = 0.69, PBIAS = 5.2%, and RSR = 0.59, and in the validation, step were NSE = 0.74, R² = 0.77, PBIAS = 13.5%, and RSR = 0.51. The LULCC from 2000 to 2019 led to a 70% increase in lateral runoff (LATQ) and a 74% decrease in aquifer groundwater. The scenario of land use capability and no conflict can reduce lateral runoff by 37% and increase water infiltration by 265%, minimizing the point and diffuse contamination of the tailings in the Paraopeba river channel.

This study investigated the collapse of B1 mine-tailings dam that occurred in 25 January 2019 and severely affected the Brumadinho region (Minas Gerais state, Brazil) socially, economically and environmentally. As regards water resources, the event impacted the Paraopeba River in the first 155.3 km counted from the dam site, meaning nearly half the main water course downstream of B1. In the impacted sector, high concentrations of tailings-related Al, Fe, Mn, P in river sediment-tailings mixtures and water were detected, as well as changes to the reflectance of riparian forests. In the river water, the metal concentrations raised significantly above safe levels. For caution, the water management authorities declared immediate suspension of Paraopeba River as drinking water source to the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (6 million people), irrespective of representing nearly 30% of all supply. In this study, the main purpose was to assess potential links between tailings distribution, river water composition and reflectance of forest vegetation, which worked out as latent variables in regression models. The latent variables were represented by numerous physical and chemical parameters, measured 4 times in 22 sites during the dry period of 2019. The modeling results suggested the release of aluminum and phosphorus from sand fractions in the mine tailings as major cause of water contamination. The NDVI changes were interpreted as environmental deterioration. Changes in redox potential may have raised manganese concentrations in surface water further affecting the forest NDVI. Distance from the B1 dam and dissolved calcium appear to attenuate deterioration. Overall, the regressions allowed robust prognoses of environmental deterioration in the Paraopeba River under low flow conditions. More importantly, they can be transposed to similar dam ruptures helping environmental authorities to decide upon measures that can bring the affected rivers to pre-rupture conditions.

The collapse of B1 dam at the Córrego do Feijão mine of Vale, S.A., located in the Ferro-Carvão stream watershed (Brazil), released 11.7 Mm³ of tailings rich in iron and manganese, and 2.8 Mm³ entered the Paraopeba River 10 km downstream. Seeking to predict the evolution of environmental deterioration in the river since the dam break on January 25, 2019, the present study generated exploratory and normative scenarios based on predictive statistical models, and proposed mitigating measures and subsides to ongoing monitoring plans. The scenarios segmented the Paraopeba into three sectors: "anomalous" for distances ≤63.3 km from the B1 dam site, "transition" (63.3-155.3 km), and "natural" (meaning unimpacted by the mine tailings in 2019; >155.3 km). The exploratory scenarios predicted a spread of the tailings until reaching the "natural" sector in the rainy season of 2021, and their containment behind the weir of Igarapé thermoelectric plant located in the "anomalous" sector, in the dry season. Besides, they predicted the deterioration of water quality and changes to the vigor of riparian forests (NDVI index) along the Paraopeba River, in the rainy season, and a restriction of these impacts to the "anomalous" sector in the dry season. The normative scenarios indicated exceedances of chlorophyll-a in the period January 2019-January 2022, but not exclusively caused by the rupture of B1 dam as they also occurred in areas not affected by the accident. Conversely, the manganese exceedances clearly flagged the dam failure, and persist. The most effective mitigating measure is likely the dredging of the tailings in the "anomalous" sector, but currently it represents solely 4.6 % of what has entered the river. Monitoring is paramount to update the scenarios until the system enters a route towards rewilding, and must include water and sediments, the vigor of riparian vegetation, and the dredging.