This study presents a qualitative analysis of a modified Leslie–Gower prey–predator model with fear effect and prey refuge in the presence of diffusion and time delay. For the non-delayed temporal system, we examined the dissipativeness and persistence of the solutions. The existence of equilibria and stability analysis is performed to comprehend the complex behavior of the proposed model. Bifurcation of codimension-1, such as Hopf-bifurcation and saddle-node, is investigated. In addition, it is observed that increasing the strength of fear may induce periodic oscillations, and a higher value of fear may lead to the extinction of prey species. The system shows a bistability attribute involving two stable equilibria. The impact of providing spatial refuge to the prey population is also examined. We noticed that prey refuge benefits both species up to a specific threshold value beyond which it turns detrimental to predator species. For the non-spatial delayed system, the direction and stability of Hopf-bifurcation are investigated with the help of the center manifold theorem and normal form theory. We noticed that increasing the delay parameter may destabilize the system by producing periodic oscillations. For the spatiotemporal system, we derived the analytical conditions for Turing instability. We investigated the pattern dynamics driven by self-diffusion. The biological significance of various Turing patterns, such as cold spots, stripes, hot spots, and organic labyrinth, is examined. We analyzed the criterion for Hopf-bifurcation for the delayed spatiotemporal system. The impact of fear response delay on spatial patterns is investigated. Numerical simulations are illustrated to corroborate the analytical findings.

Burden of diseases measured as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per 100,000 people can be mined from public domain data, when they are made available by population health surveillance systems. This can be analysed to allow insightful comparisons with the national average, and to understand differences in trends between the sexes, age groups, time periods, geographic regions, and sub-regions. In this illustrative case study, we have analysed the Scottish burden of disease database to understand what ailed the population of the Grampian region before the COVID-19 pandemic. We have identified that selected cancers, ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias are amongst the highest contributors to the burden; that drug use disorders and colorectal cancer are showing worsening trends and require health promotion and disease prevention measures from ages 15 and 25, respectively, especially in Aberdeen City; and that males are more vulnerable to atrial fibrillation and flutter, diabetes mellitus, oesophageal cancer, and self-harm, while females are more vulnerable to cerebrovascular and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. We demonstrate the usefulness of our analysis and methodology for the wider health system, allowing targeted medical research investments and coordinated response from public health and health service delivery. We also show the need for up-to-date surveillance data, forecasts, and evidence on the impact of interventions to be made available widely.

Burden of diseases measured as disability-adjusted life years per 100,000 people can be mined from public domain data, when they are made available by population health surveillance systems. This can be analysed to allow insightful comparisons with the national average, and to understand differences in trends between the sexes, age groups, time periods, geographic regions and sub-regions. In this illustrative case study, we have analysed the Scottish burden of disease database to understand what ailed the population of the Grampian region before the COVID-19 pandemic. We have identified selected cancers, ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias amongst the highest contributors to the burden; that drug use disorders and colorectal cancer are showing worsening trends and require health promotion and disease prevention measures from ages 15 and 25 respectively, especially in Aberdeen City; and that males are more vulnerable to atrial fibrillation and flutter, diabetes mellitus and oesophageal cancer, while females are to cerebrovascular disease. We demonstrate the usefulness of our analysis and methodology for the wider health system, allowing targeted medical research investments and coordinated response from public health and health service delivery. We also show the need for up-to-date surveillance data, forecasts and evidence on the impact of interventions to be made available widely.