Supply chain disruptions have become a major source of macro-financial stress, yet their implications for green finance remain underexplored. This paper investigates the state-dependent connectedness between supply-side bottlenecks and the green finance market, represented by clean energy equities, green bonds, and carbon prices. Using daily data on regional Supply Bottleneck Indices (SBIs) for China, the United States, and the euro area, we first construct a global Supply Bottleneck Index (GSBI) by principal component analysis and then estimate pairwise quantile-on-quantile connectedness (QQC) between supply bottleneck indicators and each green finance submarket. The results show that connectedness is strongly nonlinear, asymmetric, and time-varying. For the global indicator, connectedness intensifies at both joint and cross-tail quantile combinations, while mid-quantile states exhibit weak coupling. Regional results reveal clear heterogeneity: China and the United States display the strongest connectedness with clean energy equities in extreme upper-tail states, whereas the euro-area indicator is most tightly linked with the carbon market. Across many extreme states, supply bottleneck indicators show positive net connectedness with green finance markets, but green finance markets, especially carbon prices, can dominate the bilateral connectedness relation under calmer or intermediate regimes. Robustness checks based on average and quantile-rank GSBI constructions, a post-2023 subsample, and alternative QQC tuning choices support the tail-dominance pattern. These findings suggest that supply bottlenecks are not uniformly related to all green assets; rather, they are associated with state-dependent changes in the internal connectedness architecture of the green finance system. The paper contributes to the literature on financial connectedness and sustainable finance by showing how a real-economy disturbance is associated with changes in the connectedness and resilience of green financial markets.

In high-inflation economies, stablecoins are increasingly becoming infrastructural channels through which households and firms access U.S.-dollar value outside traditional financial arrangements. We study Argentina as a fragmented USD access system composed of a regulated official channel, an informal parallel channel (the Blue Dollar), and platform-based USDT channels on Binance and Bitso. Using a quantile time-frequency connectedness framework, we estimate reduced-form dynamic dependence and spillover patterns across these interdependent subsystems under normal and extreme market states and across short- and long-term horizons. Four main findings emerge. First, system-wide connectedness is dominated by short-term transmission and rises sharply during policy regime transitions, particularly around the relaxation of capital controls. Second, under normal conditions, stablecoin markets behave as early-moving net spillover transmitters, whereas the Blue Dollar and the official rate primarily absorb shocks. Third, connectedness exhibits a symmetric U-shaped pattern across quantiles, indicating that tail events intensify cross-channel dependence regardless of shock direction. Fourth, under upper-tail extreme market states, the official rate becomes a net transmitter in the long-term frequency band, implying that major devaluation episodes can temporarily reconfigure the system’s transmission architecture, even though stablecoin channels remain important in overall connectedness. These findings should be interpreted as evidence of dynamic dependence rather than structural causality. They suggest that digital dollarization does not simply add another trading venue; it increases boundary permeability, reshapes information hierarchy, and changes the monitoring problem faced by authorities in fragmented financial systems.