Anthropogenic activities and climate change have accelerated biological invasions, leading to profound ecological, economic, social, and health impacts. The invasive species fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea) has been reported to have outbreaks in areas with climate anomalies and human settlements in recent years, highlighting the necessity to explore the species’ suitable habitat and associated future changes. We built an ensemble species distribution model using Random Forest, MaxEnt, and Support Vector Machine, achieving excellent predictive performance (AUC = 0.996). Our results identify human settlement density as the dominant driving factor, with a contribution > 50%, far exceeding climatic and forest structure variables. Therefore, densely urbanized regions such as Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, the Liaodong Peninsula, and the North China Plain comprise the current highly suitable areas. Future climate projections suggest a continued expansion of the suitable habitat for H. cunea, with the most pronounced growth expected under the high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5), where human activity is greatest. Such a correlation indicates that highly urbanized regions should be given priority for corresponding monitoring and control measures. As climate warming continues, northeastern China will face escalating invasion risks. Conversely, some regions within the Yangtze River Delta may become less suitable for the habitation of H. cunea. These findings provide insightful guidance for region-specific surveillance, quarantine measures, and the precision management of H. cunea in China.

The global invasion of the shrub L. camara poses a significant threat to ecosystems. Understanding the roles of human activity and climate in driving its spread is crucial for management. This study aimed to quantify its global invasion dynamics, identify key drivers, and predict future distribution shifts. We constructed a high-precision ensemble species distribution model by integrating historical global occurrence records, multi-source environmental variables (climate and human activity indices), and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The global invasion showed a clear four-stage acceleration pattern (1900–1960, 1961–1980, 1981–2000, and 2001–2025). Variable importance and response curve analysis revealed a two-phase “dispersal–colonization” mechanism: human activities (e.g., gross domestic product) acted as a “dispersal amplifier,” while a climatic factor (isothermality) served as a critical “colonization filter.” Under two future climate scenarios assuming unchanged human activity patterns, the potential suitable habitat of L. camara exhibits structural changes while maintaining stable total area. The highly suitable areas continue to shrink, with nearly half the area lost by the end of the century under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 pathway, while low-suitability zones expand significantly—yet the overall suitable habitat remains stable. Under SSP1-2.6, structural changes in suitable habitats occur more gradually. The study clarifies the distinct roles of human activity and climate in the invasion process, providing a scientific basis for differentiated global risk management strategies targeting dispersal pathways and colonization thresholds.