Autonomous UAV landing on dynamic unmanned surface vessel platforms is affected by deck motion and degraded visual observations, which may lead to unsafe final descent decisions. This paper proposes a fully decentralized reliability-enhanced predictive landing method that combines probabilistic perception, visual quality assessment, and model predictive control. Target posterior probability, perception uncertainty, and task-oriented image quality are fused into an online observation reliability index, which is used to adapt observation noise, constrain phase switching, and penalize unreliable descent opportunities. FFT-based dominant-mode identification and Kalman correction are also used to predict deck roll and pitch for landing-window selection. Simulation results show that the proposed method achieves a 90% small-angle landing success rate and keeps the touchdown attitude angle within 5°. Compared with standard MPC, landings within a 15° deck inclination increase from 24% to 82%, and the 80th-percentile touchdown inclination decreases by 9°. Compared with SHMPC, the average solution time decreases from 913 ms to approximately 104 ms per iteration. These results indicate that the proposed reliability-aware framework can reduce unsafe descent decisions and improve landing robustness while maintaining real-time feasibility under degraded maritime visual conditions.