The estimation of flood loss is difficult, especially in the commercial sector, because of its great inhomogeneity. However, the reliability of loss modelling is fairly unknown, since flood-loss models are scarcely validated. The newly developed Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was validated on the micro-scale using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. Additionally, different meso-scale loss functions were compared. Meso-scale model application was undertaken in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood in Germany. Model results were compared with the results of three other loss models, as well as with official loss records. The micro-scale validation shows very good results, with no bias and mean absolute errors between 23 and 31%. The meso-scale validation indicates that FLEMOcs provides good results, especially in large areas with many affected companies where high losses are expected. Citation Seifert, I., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1315–1324.
Cities are challenged by climate change impacts, such as extreme rainfall events that affect conventional urban water management systems via increased sewage water overflows resulting in water quality deterioration and urban floods causing infrastructure damage. Investments in blue–green infrastructure (BGI) are increasingly considered to address these issues. However, these should be cost-effective. In this study, the effectiveness of five different BGI strategies and one grey strategy are assessed for a peri-urban catchment area in Oslo (Grefsen) using a cost–benefit analysis. The strategies include (i) wadis; (ii) green roofs; (iii) raingardens, rain barrels and wadis; (iv) infiltration crates; (v) water squares, and (vi) a separate sewage system. Besides economic effectiveness, the study also aims to identify the proper protection level by comparing cost–benefit ratios and net benefits for 60-min rainfall events occurring once every 5, 20, and 100 years (M5, M20, and M100), concerning both the current situation and under future climate change (using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). The analyses revealed the highest BC ratios for wadis (12.0–17.3), separate sewage systems (7.7–15.1), and a combination of raingardens, rain barrels, and wadis (1.6–2.3). Strategies dimensioned for less frequent but more intensive rainfall events yielded higher BC ratios. Results for infiltration crates were difficult to interpret and were found to be very sensitive to input parameters. The other strategies implied a negative BC ratio. The study concludes that investments in BGI in Grefsen, Oslo, can be positively judged from a social–economic perspective and provide suitable information for water-related decision makers to decide upon the strategy selection and the appropriate flood protection level.
Freshwater lakes are dynamic ecosystems and provide multiple ecosystem services to humans. Sudden changes in lake environmental conditions such as cyanobacterial blooms can negatively impact lake usage. Automated high-frequency monitoring (AHFM) systems allow the detection of short-lived extreme and unpredictable events and enable lake managers to take mitigation actions earlier than if basing decisions on conventional monitoring programmes. In this study a cost-benefit approach was used to compare the costs of implementing and running an AHFM system with its potential benefits for three case study lakes. It was shown that AHFM can help avoid human health impacts, lost recreation opportunities, and revenue losses for livestock, aquaculture and agriculture as well as reputational damages for drinking water treatment. Our results showed that the largest benefits of AHFM can be expected in prevention of human health impacts and reputational damages. The potential benefits of AHFM, however, do not always outweigh installation and operation costs. While for Lake Kinneret (Israel) over a 10-year period, the depreciated total benefits are higher than the depreciated total costs, this is not the case for Lough Gara (Ireland). For Lake Mälaren in Sweden it would depend on the configuration of the AHFM system, as well as on how the benefits are calculated. In general, the higher the frequency and severity of changes in lake environmental conditions associated with detrimental consequences for humans and the higher the number of lake users, the more likely it is that the application of an AHFM system is financially viable.
14 September 2018 in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Insurance can be an important mechanism to stimulate flood risk reduction and thus decrease losses. However, there is a gap between the theoretical potential described by academic scholars and the actual engagement of insurers. In the analysis, I have collected examples of insurers' engagement in flood risk reduction, focusing on household and business insurance in developed countries. Insurers engaged either directly, e.g., through co-financing risk reduction, or more indirectly by giving incentives to policyholders or governmental actors to adopt risk reduction measures. I analyzed their engagement with the framing conditions of the market they were acting in, such as market penetration or private or public insurance schemes. I found risk reduction measures like awareness-raising campaigns targeting citizens to be quite common across several countries. There was less insurance engagement in risk reduction measures such as warning or land-use planning, which are perceived to be mainly governmental tasks. The use of risk-based pricing as an incentive for the adoption of risk reduction measures as suggested by academia is difficult in practice, due to barriers such as information gaps on the effectiveness of property-level protection measures and requirements concerning the affordability of insurance. New approaches to overcome these shortfalls include organized data collection on property-level protection measures or the insurance of high-risks for affordable premiums in public–private partnership constellations with the government.
Nature-based solutions (NbS) provide direct benefits to people who live in areas where these approaches are present. The degree of direct benefits (thermal comfort, reduced flood risk, and mental health) varies across temporal and spatial scales, and it can be modelled and quantified. Less clear are the indirect benefits related to opportunities to learn about the environment and its influence on personal behaviour and action. The present study, based on survey data from 1955 participants across 17 cities worldwide, addressed whether participation in NbS through two types of interactions (a passive learning experience about NbS and a more active experience based on Citizen Science) stimulates motivation and willingness to be more environmentally sustainable. Over 75% of participants improved their understanding of environmental sustainability and were highly motivated and more confident in their ability to improve sustainability in their local environment/nature. Similar percentage improvements arose from both types of activity across all cities. Those NbS that had elements of both blue and green infrastructure rated higher than those that had predominantly green NbS. Interestingly, a large percentage of the participants did not live near the NbS that were the focus of these activities. This indicated that expected spatial limitations between benefit and recipient may be overcome when dedicated programmes involve people in learning or monitoring NbS. Therefore, opportunities have arisen to expand inclusion from the immediately local to the larger community through participation and Citizen Science, with potential benefits to social cohesion and urban sustainability.
Drinking water quality is determined by the water’s biological, chemical, and physical features. Water sampling was carried out in 20 villages in the Pune and Satara districts of Maharashtra, with 15 falling in a low rainfall zone. Samples were collected from rivers, open wells, and bore wells, four times in a period of a year covering all seasons. A total of 206 water samples were analyzed for their physical, chemical, and bacteriological properties. Physical and chemical properties were expressed in the form of a modified Water Quality Index (WQI). Additionally, the modified WQI was compared to an Overall Pollution Index (OIP) for rivers. The present investigation is an attempt to analyze the impact of seasonal changes on water quality of different water bodies using two different WQIs. To understand the degree to which water quality is affected by faecal bacteria, modified WQI with exclusion of faecal coliforms (FC) and OIP with inclusion of FC were compared with each other in river water bodies. Modified WQI values and bacterial counts were at a maximum during the onset of the monsoon. In terms of bacteriological contamination, the number of FC and intestinal enterococci (IE) in the water bodies was of major concern since it would impact human health.