While some skeptics remain unconvinced that global climate change is a reality, there is no doubt that during the past 50 years or so, patterns of emerging arbovirus diseases have changed significantly. Can this be attributed to climate change? Climate is a major factor in determining: (1) the geographic and temporal distribution of arthropods; (2) characteristics of arthropod life cycles; (3) dispersal patterns of associated arboviruses; (4) the evolution of arboviruses; and (5) the efficiency with which they are transmitted from arthropods to vertebrate hosts. Thus, under the influence of increasing temperatures and rainfall through warming of the oceans, and alteration of the natural cycles that stabilise climate, one is inevitably drawn to the conclusion that arboviruses will continue to emerge in new regions. For example, we cannot ignore the unexpected but successful establishment of chikungunya fever in northern Italy, the sudden appearance of West Nile virus in North America, the increasing frequency of Rift Valley fever epidemics in the Arabian Peninsula, and very recently, the emergence of Bluetongue virus in northern Europe. In this brief review we ask the question, are these diseases emerging because of climate change or do other factors play an equal or even more important role in their emergence?

The recent global (re)emergence of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), such as chikungunya and Zika virus, was widely reported in the media as though it was a new phenomenon. This is not the case. Arboviruses and other human microbial pathogens have been (re)emerging for centuries. The major difference today is that arbovirus emergence and dispersion are more rapid and geographically extensive, largely due to intensive growth of global transportation systems, arthropod adaptation to increasing urbanisation, our failure to contain mosquito population density increases and land perturbation. Here we select examples of (re)emerging pathogenic arboviruses and explain the reasons for their emergence and different patterns of dispersal, focusing particularly on the mosquito vectors which are important determinants of arbovirus emergence. We also attempt to identify arboviruses likely to (re)emerge in the future.

Since 2004, several million indigenous cases of Chikungunya virus disease occurred in Africa, the Indian Ocean, India, Asia and, recently, Europe. The virus, usually transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, has now repeatedly been associated with a new vector, Ae. Albopictus. Analysis of full-length viral sequences reveals three independent events of virus exposure to Ae. Albopictus, each followed by the acquisition of a single adaptive mutation providing selective advantage for transmission by this mosquito. This disconcerting and current unique example of "evolutionary convergence" occurring in nature illustrates rapid pathogen adaptation to ecological perturbation, driven directly as a consequence of human activities.

Slave trading of Africans to the Americas, during the 16th to the 19th century was responsible for the first recorded emergence in the New World of two arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), yellow...

A strain ofTick-borne encephalitis virusdesignated Zausaev (Za) was isolated in Siberia from a patient who died of a progressive (2-year) form of tick-borne encephalitis 10 years after being bitten by a tick. The complete genomic sequence of this virus was determined, and an attempt was made to correlate the sequence with the biological characteristics of the virus. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that this virus belongs to the Siberian subtype ofTick-borne encephalitis virus. Comparison of Za virus with two related viruses, a Far Eastern isolate, Sofjin, and a Siberian isolate, Vasilchenko, revealed differences among the three viruses in pathogenicity for Syrian hamsters, cytopathogenicity for PS cells, plaque morphology, and the electrophoretic profiles of virus-specific nonstructural proteins. Comparative amino acid alignments revealed 10 individual amino acid substitutions in the Za virus polyprotein sequence that were different from those of other tick-borne flaviviruses. Notably, the dimeric form of the Za virus NS1 protein migrated in polyacrylamide gels as a heterogeneous group of molecules with a significantly higher electrophoretic mobility than those of the Sofjin and Vasilchenko viruses. Two amino acid substitutions, T₂₇₇→V and E₂₇₉→G, within the NS1 dimerization domain are probably responsible for the altered oligomerization of Za virus NS1. These studies suggest that the patient from whom Za virus was isolated died due to increased pathogenicity of the latent virus following spontaneous mutagenesis.

The unexpected emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Pacific Islands and Latin America and its association with congenital Zika virus syndrome (CZVS) (which includes microcephaly) and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) have stimulated wide-ranging research. High densities of susceptible Aedes spp., immunologically naive human populations, global population growth with increased urbanization, and escalation of global transportation of humans and commercial goods carrying vectors and ZIKV undoubtedly enhanced the emergence of ZIKV. However, flavivirus mutations accumulate with time, increasing the likelihood that genetic viral differences are determinants of change in viral phenotype. Based on comparative ZIKV complete genome phylogenetic analyses and temporal estimates, we identify amino acid substitutions that may be associated with increased viral epidemicity, CZVS, and GBS. Reverse genetics, vector competence, and seroepidemiological studies will test our hypothesis that these amino acid substitutions are determinants of epidemic and neurotropic ZIKV emergence.