The rapidly increasing population growth and expansion of urban development are undoubtedly two of the main reasons for increasing global energy consumption. Accurate long-term forecasting of peak load is essential for saving time and money for countries’ power generation utilities. This paper introduces the first investigation into the performance of the Prophet model in the long-term peak load forecasting of Kuwait. The Prophet model is compared with the well-established Holt–Winters model to assess its feasibility and accuracy in forecasting long-term peak loads. Real data of electric load peaks from Kuwait powerplants from 2010 to 2020 were used for the electric load peaks, forecasting the peak load between 2020 and 2030. The Prophet model has shown more accurate predictions than the Holt–Winters model in five statistical performance metrics. Besides, the robustness of the two models was investigated by adding Gaussian white noise of different intensities. The Prophet model has proven to be more robust to noise than the Holt–Winters model. Furthermore, the generalizability test of the two models has shown that the Prophet model outperforms the Holt–Winters model. The reported results suggest that the forecasted maximum peak load is expected to reach 18,550 and 19,588 MW for the Prophet and Holt–Winters models by 2030 in Kuwait. The study suggests that the best months for scheduling the preventive maintenance for the year 2020 and 2021 are from November 2020 until March 2021 for both models.

This study presents a prediction method of surface roughness values for dry and cryogenic turning of AISI 304 stainless steel using the ANFIS-QPSO machine learning approach. ANFIS-QPSO combines the strengths of artificial neural networks, fuzzy systems and evolutionary optimization in terms of accuracy, robustness and fast convergence towards global optima. Simulations revealed that ANFIS-QPSO results in accurate prediction of surface roughness with RMSE = 4.86%, MAPE = 4.95% and R² = 0.984 for the dry turning process. Similarly, for the cryogenic turning process, ANFIS-QPSO resulted in surface roughness predictions with RMSE = 5.08%, MAPE = 5.15% and R² = 0.988 that are of high agreement with the measured values. Performance comparisons between ANFIS-QPSO, ANFIS, ANFIS-GA and ANFIS-PSO suggest that ANFIS-QPSO is an effective method that can ensure a high prediction accuracy of surface roughness values for dry and cryogenic turning processes.

The state of Kuwait is facing a substantial challenge in responding to the spread of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). The government’s decision to repatriate stranded citizens back to Kuwait from various COVID-19 epicenters has generated a great concern. It has heightened the need for prediction models to estimate the epidemic size. Mathematical modeling plays a pivotal role in predicting the spread of infectious diseases to enable policymakers to implement various health and safety measures to contain the spread. This research presents a forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic size in Kuwait based on the confirmed data. Deterministic and stochastic modeling approaches were used to estimate the size of COVID-19 spread in Kuwait and determine its ending phase. In addition, various simulation scenarios were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical intervention measures, particularly with time-varying infection rates and individual contact numbers. Results indicate that, with data until 19 April 2020 and before the repatriation plan, the estimated reproduction number in Kuwait is 2.2. It also confirms the efficiency of the containment measures of the state of Kuwait to control the spread even after the repatriation plan. The results show that a high contact rate among the population implies that the epidemic peak value is yet to be reached and that more strict intervention measures must be incorporated

Tool wear negatively impacts the quality of workpieces produced by the drilling process. Accurate prediction of tool wear enables the operator to maintain the machine at the required level of performance. This research presents a novel hybrid machine learning approach for predicting the tool wear in a drilling process. The proposed approach is based on optimizing the extreme gradient boosting algorithm’s hyperparameters by a spiral dynamic optimization algorithm (XGBoost-SDA). Simulations were carried out on copper and cast-iron datasets with a high degree of accuracy. Further comparative analyses were performed with support vector machines (SVM) and multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (MLP-ANN), where XGBoost-SDA showed superior performance with regard to the method. Simulations revealed that XGBoost-SDA results in the accurate prediction of flank wear in the drilling process with mean absolute error (MAE) = 4.67%, MAE = 5.32%, and coefficient of determination R² = 0.9973 for the copper workpiece. Similarly, for the cast iron workpiece, XGBoost-SDA resulted in surface roughness predictions with MAE = 5.25%, root mean square error (RMSE) = 6.49%, and R² = 0.975, which closely agree with the measured values. Performance comparisons between SVM, MLP-ANN, and XGBoost-SDA show that XGBoost-SDA is an effective method that can ensure high predictive accuracy about flank wear values in a drilling process.

Machining process data can be utilized to predict cutting force and optimize process parameters. Cutting force is an essential parameter that has a significant impact on the metal turning process. In this study, a cutting force prediction model for turning AISI 4340 alloy steel was developed using Gaussian process regression (GPR), support vector machines (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN) methods. The GPR simulations demonstrated a reliable prediction of surface roughness for the dry turning method with R² = 0.9843, MAPE = 5.12%, and RMSE = 1.86%. Performance comparisons between GPR, SVM, and ANN show that GPR is an effective method that can ensure high predictive accuracy of the cutting force in the turning of AISI 4340.

Surface roughness is a significant factor in determining the product quality and highly impacts the production price. The ability to predict the surface roughness before production would save the time and resources of the process. This research investigated the performance of state-of-the-art machine learning and quantum behaved evolutionary computation methods in predicting the surface roughness of aluminum material in a face-milling machine. Quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization (QPSO) and least squares gradient boosting ensemble (LSBoost) were utilized to simulate numerous face milling experiments and have predicted the surface roughness values with high extent of accuracy. The algorithms have shown a superior prediction performance over genetics optimization algorithm (GA) and the classical particle swarm optimization (PSO) in terms of statistical performance indicators. The QPSO outperformed all the simulated algorithms with a root mean square error of RMSE = 2.17% and a coefficient of determination R² = 0.95 that closely matches the actual surface roughness experimental values.