Dynamic topography is a well-established consequence of global geodynamic models of mantle convection with horizontal dimensions of >1000 km and amplitudes up to 2 km. Such physical models guide the interpretation of geological records on equal dimensions. Continent-scale geological maps therefore serve as reference frames of choice to visualize erosion/non-deposition as a proxy for long-wavelength, low-amplitude vertical surface motion. At a resolution of systems or series, such maps display conformable and unconformable time boundaries traceable over hundreds to thousands of kilometres. Unconformable contact surfaces define the shape and size of time gap (hiatus) in millions of years based on the duration of time represented by the missing systems or series. Hiatus for a single system or series base datum diminishes laterally to locations (anchor points) where it is conformable at the mapped resolution; it is highly dependent upon scale. A comparison of hiatus area between two successive system or series boundaries yields changes in location, shape, size and duration, indicative of the transient nature of vertical surface motion. As a single-step technique, it serves as a quantitative proxy for palaeotopography that can be calibrated using other geological data. The tool magnifies the need for geological mapping at the temporal resolution of stages, matching process rates. The method has no resolving power within conformable regions (basins) but connects around them. When applied to marine seismic sections that relate to rock record, not to time, biostratigraphic and radiometric data from deep wells are needed before hiatus areas – that relate to time – can be mapped.
Plate motion changes provide powerful constrains on plate tectonic forces. North America is ideal to explore these forces. We use recently published high‐temporal resolution plate reconstructions of North America, which reveal a velocity slow‐down at 17 Ma, roughly coeval with the eruption of the Yellowstone plume, together with a stratigraphic analysis of hiatus surfaces across the continent, which provides proxy information for paleotopography. Using a simple Couette/Poiseuille flow models we estimate asthenosphere flow beneath North America and its impact on Neogene plate motion. We find that North America's Neogene plate motion change can be explained by Poiseuille flow in the asthenosphere generated upon the arrival of the Yellowstone plume and that the flow length‐scale matches the extent of hiatus surfaces. While plume driven upper mantle flow constitutes a geodynamically viable model to explain North America's Neogene plate motion change it provides an intrinsic link between vertical and horizontal plate motions.
The February 6 th , 2023, M w 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake in the Turkey-Syria border region raises the question of whether such a large earthquake could have been foreseen, as well as what is the maximum possible magnitude (M max ) of earthquakes on the East Anatolian fault system and on continental transform faults in general. To answer such questions, knowledge of past earthquakes and of their causative faults is necessary. Here, we integrate data from historical seismology, paleoseismology, archeoseismology, and remote sensing to identify the likely source faults of fourteen M w ≥ 7 earthquakes between AD 1000 and the present in the region. We find that the 2023 Pazarcık earthquake could have been foreseen in terms of location (the East Anatolian Fault) and timing (an earthquake along this fault was if anything overdue), but not magnitude. We hypothesize that the maximum earthquake magnitude for the East Anatolian Fault is in fact 8.2, i.e. a single end-to-end rupture of the entire fault, and that the 2023 Pazarcık earthquake did not reach M max by a fortuitous combination of circumstances. We conclude that such unusually large events are hard to model in terms of recurrence intervals, and that seismic hazard assessment along continental transforms cannot be done on individual fault systems but must include neighboring systems as well, because they are not kinematically independent at any time scale.
Anatolia is part of the west-central Alpide plate-boundary zone, particularly where the deformation is characterized by the westward extrusion of this continental block between the Arabian-Eurasian collision in the east and the Hellenic Subduction in the west. Although, this motion mostly happens along the boundary structures, i.e., the North Anatolian and East Anatolian shear zones, there are multiple studies documenting the active deformation along NE-striking sinistral and NW-striking dextral strike-slip faults within the central and eastern parts of Anatolia. These secondary faults slice Anatolia into several pieces giving formation of the Malatya-Erzincan, Cappadocian and Central Anatolian slices from east to west, where their boundary geometries are strongly controlled by the weak zones, the Tethyan Suture Zones.We compiled all geological slip-rate and palaeoseismological studies, which point out inhomogeneous magnitude of deformation along different sections of these secondary structures. The Central Anatolian Fault Zone, the westernmost NE-striking sinistral strike-slip structure and the western boundary between the Central Anatolia and Cappadocian slices, has an average horizontal slip-rate of about 1 to 1.5 mm/a for the last few tens of thousands of years. The earthquake recurrence of about 4500 years between two events revealed on the northern sections of the CAFZ also support this rate of deformation. However, the Malatya-Ovacık Fault Zone has a bimodal behaviour in terms of deformation rate, which is 2.5 times higher along its northern member, the Ovacık Fault (OF) than the southern one, the Malatya Fault (MF) (2.5 to 1 mm/a), respectively. This velocity difference between two distinct members of the same fault zone can be explained by the relative westward motion of slices where the OF makes the direct contact between the Central Anatolian and Malatya-Erzincan, and the MF delimits Cappadocian and Malatya-Erzincan slices. Although these structures, which are shallow and probably deform only the upper crust, are of having secondary importance, yet they are still capable of producing infrequent but strong earthquakes within this highly deforming convergent setting. This study is supported by TÜBİTAK projects no. 114Y227 and 114Y580.