One of the most extensive natural plague centers, or foci, is located in Central Asia, in particular, the Zhambyl region in Southern Kazakhstan. Here, we conducted plague surveillance from 2000 to 2020 in the Zhambyl region in Kazakhstan and confirmed 3,072 cases of infected wild animals. We used Species Distribution Modeling by employing MaxEnt, and identified that the natural plague foci are primarily located in the Moiynqum, Betpaqdala, and Tauqum Deserts. The Zhambyl region's central part, including the Moiynqum and Sarysu districts, has a high potential risk of plague outbreak for the rural towns and villages. Since the phenomenon of climate change has been identified as a determinant that affects the rodent populations, thereby elevating the likelihood of an outbreak of plague, we investigated the potential dissemination routes of the disease under the changing climate conditions, thus creating Species Distribution Forecasts for the rodent species in southern part of Kazakhstan for the year 2100. By 2100, in case of increasing temperatures, the range of host species is likely to expand, leading to a higher risk of plague outbreaks. The highest risk of disease transmission can be expected at the outer limits of the modeled total distribution range, where infection rates are high, but antibody presence is low, making many species susceptible to the pathogen. To mitigate the risk of a potential plague outbreak, it is necessary to implement appropriate sanitary‐epidemiological measures and climate mitigation policies.

The aim of the study was to improve epizootiological monitoring and increase the effectiveness of preventive (anti-epidemic) measures for camel plague control in Kazakhstan.Materials and methods. We used the data on epizootiological and epidemiological monitoring in natural plague foci of Kazakhstan, long-term measurements and indicators for the period of 2000–2020 of the anti-plague and veterinary services of the Republic for the analysis. To process the evidence, epidemiological, epizootiological, microbiological, and statistical research methods, as well as GIS technology were applied.Results and discussion. The number of camels has increased by 2.2 times in Kazakhstan over the past 20 years. Where there were 98.2 thousand heads in 2000, it amounted to 216.4 thousand heads in 2020. Over the past 10 years, 152 camels died of unknown causes in the focal area of the country, but laboratory tests for plague turned out negative. According to the hazard criteria, the territory of the country has been conditionally divided into three zones: five regions with a high degree of hazard with a total area of 953.15 sq. km, five regions with medium degree of hazard with a total area of 1230.72 sq. km, and with a low degree of hazard – four regions and three cities of republican significance with a total area of 541.1 sq. km. Constant epizootiological monitoring over plague in camels is a necessity for the system of preventive measures.

The study aimed to analyse data from epizootological monitoring, microbiological and molecular genetic studies to assess the genetic biodiversity of Yersinia pestis (Y. pestis) strains, to determine the effectiveness of using individual methods and to develop the necessary algorithm for evaluating genetic methods and creating a biorepository of natural isolates of these pathogens. As a result, the biodiversity of Y. pestis strains isolated in natural plague foci of Kazakhstan was analysed using classical and modern methods (polymerase chain reaction, Multi Locus Variable Number Tandem Repeat Analysis, VITEK 2 Compact, MiniION Oxford Nanopore, MiSeq sequencer) of research and geographic information system (GIS) technology. Spatial and temporal characteristics of plague infection in the plague-enriched areas of the country were described. The study summarised the characteristics of phenotypic and molecular genetic properties of 1220 Y. pestis strains isolated from different sites in natural plague foci of the country during the period 2010-2023. As a result, 94.8% of Y. pestis strains were typical of these plague foci, and 5.2% of strains had altered properties in some respects. To obtain information on genetic diversity and their geographical distribution, 82 DNA samples of Y. pestis strains were studied. Three phylogenetic trees were constructed, GIS maps were compiled and a gene bank, a biorepository of molecular characteristics was created to obtain specific genetic characteristics of strains and a complete picture of the genetic parameters of the plague pathogen isolated from various sites in natural foci of Kazakhstan.

The purpose of epidemiological surveillance in case of plague is to assess the epizootic state of natural foci to determine the risk of people plague infection and warning the anthroponotic spread of infection. Tracking of epizootic manifestations of the plague is carried at during epizootic examination, which is carried out in sufficient volume in Kazakhstan, despite more than 20 years of epidemiological well-being. This allows you to keep the readiness of healthcare in case of complications from the plague, both natural and intentional characters, which is the main goal in ensuring the biological safety of the state. According to the results of epidemiological monitoring, data on the patterns of natural focality of the plague are being replenished. Except to natural factors of epidemic potential - the state of populations of plague carriers and vectors, social factors are important, among which the decreed contingent of the population, which has an increased risk of infection due bu type of activity, and numerous other indicators. In the presented work, special attention is paid to the role of camels in the epidemiology of plague. The new data obtained on these animals, on the comparative genetic characteristics of the strains of the plague microbe isolated in different years, by security of the anti-plague service with regulations, allow us to improve the indicators and standards of epidemiological surveillance of the plague to increase the effectiveness of preventive measures in the Republic of Kazakhstan

This review provides a comprehensive overview of the genetic diversity and epidemiological potential of Yersinia pestis in Kazakhstan’s natural plague foci, emphasizing the link between genotypic variation and outbreak capacity. Integrating historical epidemiological records with contemporary microbiological and genomic data (including PCR, VNTR/MLVA, SNP analysis, and whole-genome sequencing), we evaluate core and accessory genome variations. The data reveal substantial regional heterogeneity. High-risk desert foci (Caspian and Aral regions) are dominated by the Medievalis biovar, including atypical genovariants lacking canonical markers. Conversely, high-mountain foci (Sarydzhaz, Talas) harbor the Antiqua and Talas biovars, primarily linked to enzootic circulation. Notably, the Ili River focus exhibits extreme genomic variability, featuring strains with plesiomorphic traits. Furthermore, the widespread distribution of mobile elements like the cryptic plasmid pCKF suggests significant horizontal transfer contributing to pathogen adaptation. Ultimately, Central Asian plague dynamics are driven by complex evolutionary and ecological interactions. Given climate change and expanding human–wildlife interfaces, continuous genomic and ecological surveillance is essential for the early detection of high-risk Y. pestis genovariants and improving public health preparedness.

It is well known that the earth's climate changes that occur as a result of global climate change are changing the biosphere of our planet as a whole. As a result, many animal species change their geographical ranges, seasonal activity, migration patterns, abundance and interaction with other species, including microorganisms, the facts of which are observed in the deserts of Kazakhstan. The main carrier of the causative agent of the plague in the desert natural focus of the Betpakdala plague of Kazakhstan is the great gerbil (Rhombonus opimus), where the plague epizootic was first discovered in 1959, the area of which was then 30.0 thousand. km² until 1990. Due to the rapid industrial development of the Betpakdala desert, the impact of global climate change on earth and other factors over the past 30 years, the area of this natural plague outbreak has increased by 50.12% (60.14 thousand km²) in the northern direction due to the biological transformation of the area of the main carrier, which led to the expansion of plague epizootics among rodents. At the same time, the plague microbe was also involved in the transformation process, increasing its natural area of the pistil (the area of distribution of the microbe), which increased the risk of infection of people with plague infection. The paper presents our results of epizootological monitoring for the period 2009–2022 (50.0 thousand km²) and laboratory studies of 522376 samples of field material for plague. The structure of the focus was shown, and the reason for the expansion of the settlement area of the rodent population was revealed. The number of sectors with different levels of epidemic danger and epizootic activity were determined, and the main phenotypic and genotypic properties of Yersinia pestis strains circulating in this natural plague focus were also given.