Using human evaluation of 100,000 words spread across 24 corpora in 10 languages diverse in origin and culture, we present evidence of a deep imprint of human sociality in language, observing that (i) the words of natural human language possess a universal positivity bias, (ii) the estimated emotional content of words is consistent between languages under translation, and (iii) this positivity bias is strongly independent of frequency of word use. Alongside these general regularities, we describe interlanguage variations in the emotional spectrum of languages that allow us to rank corpora. We also show how our word evaluations can be used to construct physical-like instruments for both real-time and offline measurement of the emotional content of large-scale texts. Significance The most commonly used words of 24 corpora across 10 diverse human languages exhibit a clear positive bias, a big data confirmation of the Pollyanna hypothesis. The study’s findings are based on 5 million individual human scores and pave the way for the development of powerful language-based tools for measuring emotion.
9 June 2015 in Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination
During liquidity shocks such as occur when margin calls force the liquidation of leveraged positions, there is a widening disparity between the reaction speed of the liquidity demanders and the liquidity providers. Those who are forced to sell typically must take action within the span of a day, while those who are providing liquidity do not face similar urgency. Indeed, the flurry of activity and increased volatility of prices during the liquidity shocks might actually reduce the speed with which many liquidity providers come to the market. To analyze these dynamics, we build upon previous agent-based models of financial markets, and specifically the Preis et. al (Europhys Lett 75(3):510–516, 2006 ) model, to develop an order-book model with heterogeneity in trader decision cycles. The model demonstrates an adherence to important stylized facts such as a leptokurtic distribution of returns, decay of autocorrelations over moderate to long time lags, and clustering volatility. Consistent with empirical analysis of recent market events, we demonstrate the impact of heterogeneous decision cycles on market resilience and the stochastic properties of market prices.
Using the most comprehensive source of commercially available data on the US National Market System, we analyze all quotes and trades associated with Dow 30 stocks in calendar year 2016 from the vantage point of a single and fixed frame of reference. We find that inefficiencies created in part by the fragmentation of the equity marketplace are relatively common and persist for longer than what physical constraints may suggest. Information feeds reported different prices for the same equity more than 120 million times, with almost 64 million dislocation segments featuring meaningfully longer duration and higher magnitude. During this period, roughly 22% of all trades occurred while the SIP and aggregated direct feeds were dislocated. The current market configuration resulted in a realized opportunity cost totaling over $160 million, a conservative estimate that does not take into account intra-day offsetting events.
Both the scientific community and the popular press have paid much attention to the speed of the Securities Information Processor—the data feed consolidating all trades and quotes across the US stock market. Rather than the speed of the Securities Information Processor (SIP), we focus here on its accuracy. Relying on Trade and Quote data, we provide various measures of SIP latency relative to high-speed data feeds between exchanges, known as direct feeds. We use first differences to highlight not only the divergence between the direct feeds and the SIP, but also the fundamental inaccuracy of the SIP. We find that as many as 60% or more of trades are reported out of sequence for stocks with high trade volume, therefore skewing simple measures, such as returns. While not yet definitive, this analysis supports our preliminary conclusion that the underlying infrastructure of the SIP is currently unable to keep pace with the trading activity in today’s stock market.
The U.S. stock market is one of the largest and most complex marketplaces in the global financial system. Over the past several decades, this market has evolved at multiple structural and temporal scales. New exchanges became active, and others stopped trading, regulations have been introduced and adapted, and technological innovations have pushed the pace of trading activity to blistering speeds. These developments have supported the growth of a rich machine‐trading ecology that leads to qualitative differences in trading behavior at human and machine time scales. We conduct a longitudinal analysis of comprehensive market data to quantify nonstationary dynamics throughout this system. We quantify the relationship between fluctuations in the number of active trading venues and realized opportunity costs experienced by market participants. We find that information asymmetries, in the form of quote dislocations, predict market‐wide volatility indicators. Lastly, we uncover multiple micro‐to‐macro level pathways, including those exhibiting evidence of self‐organized criticality.
Using human evaluation of 100,000 words spread across 24 corpora in 10 languages diverse in origin and culture, we present evidence of a deep imprint of human sociality in language, observing that (1) the words of natural human language possess a universal positivity bias; (2) the estimated emotional content of words is consistent between languages under translation; and (3) this positivity bias is strongly independent of frequency of word usage. Alongside these general regularities, we describe inter-language variations in the emotional spectrum of languages which allow us to rank corpora. We also show how our word evaluations can be used to construct physical-like instruments for both real-time and offline measurement of the emotional content of large-scale texts.