Non-small-cell lung cancer outcomes are poor but heterogeneous, even within stage groups. To improve prognostic precision we aimed to develop and validate a simple prognostic model using patient and disease variables. Prospective registry and study data were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression to derive a prognostic model (hospital 1, n=695), which was subsequently tested (Harrell's c-statistic for discrimination and Cox-Snell residuals for calibration) in two independent validation cohorts (hospital 2, n=479 and hospital 3, n=284). The derived Lung Cancer Prognostic Index (LCPI) included stage, histology, mutation status, performance status, weight loss, smoking history, respiratory comorbidity, sex, and age. Two-year overall survival rates according to LCPI in the derivation and two validation cohorts, respectively, were 84, 77, and 68% (LCPI 1: score⩽9); 61, 61, and 42% (LCPI 2: score 10-13); 33, 32, and 14% (LCPI 3: score 14-16); 7, 16, and 5% (LCPI 4: score ⩾15). Discrimination (c-statistic) was 0.74 for the derivation cohort, 0.72 and 0.71 for the two validation cohorts. The LCPI contributes additional prognostic information, which may be used to counsel patients, guide trial eligibility or design, or standardise mortality risk for epidemiological analyses.

The frequency and severity of adverse effects warrant experienced clinical supervision

Prevention of cancer-associated thromboembolism (TE) remains a significant clinical challenge and priority world-wide safety initiative. In this prospective non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cohort, longitudinal TE risk profiling (clinical and biomarker) was undertaken to develop risk stratification models for targeted TE prevention. These were compared with published models from Khorana, CATS, PROTECHT, CONKO, and CATS/MICA. The NSCLC cohort of 129 patients, median follow-up 22.0 months (range 5.6—31.3), demonstrated a hypercoagulable profile in >75% patients and TE incidence of 19%. High TE risk patients were those receiving chemotherapy with baseline fibrinogen ≥ 4 g/L and d-dimer ≥ 0.5 mg/L; or baseline d-dimer ≥ 1.5 mg/L; or month 1 d-dimer ≥ 1.5 mg/L. The model predicted TE with 100% sensitivity and 34% specificity (c-index 0.67), with TE incidence 27% vs. 0% for high vs. low-risk. A comparison using the Khorana, PROTECHT, and CONKO methods were not discriminatory; TE incidence 17–25% vs. 14–19% for high vs. low-risk (c-index 0.51–0.59). Continuous d-dimer (CATS/MICA model) was also not predictive of TE. Independent of tumour stage, high TE risk was associated with cancer progression (HR 1.9, p = 0.01) and mortality (HR 2.2, p = 0.02). The model was tested for scalability in a prospective gastrointestinal cancer cohort with equipotency demonstrated; 80% sensitivity and 39% specificity. This proposed TE risk prediction model is simple, practical, potent and can be used in the clinic for real-time, decision-making for targeted thromboprophylaxis. Validation in a multicentre randomised interventional study is underway (ACTRN12618000811202).

Thromboembolism is common in lung cancer. Current thromboprophylaxis guidelines lack specific recommendations for appropriate strategies in this high thrombotic risk patient cohort. We profiled lung cancer patients receiving anti-cancer therapy. Thromboembolism incidence and thromboembolism-related mortality rates are reported and we explored patient, disease, and treatment-related risk factors associated with higher thrombotic rates. Retrospective review of lung cancer patients referred to a Comprehensive Cancer Centre between 01/07/2011 and 30/06/2012 for anti-cancer therapy. Data were collected from medical, pharmacy, pathology and diagnostic imaging electronic records. After a median follow up of 10 months (range: 0.03-32 months), 24/222 patients (10.8%) had developed radiologically confirmed thromboembolism; 131 events per 1000 person-years (95%CI 87-195). Thromboembolism occurred equally in patients with non-small cell and small cell lung cancer (10.8% and 10.5% respectively), and more frequently among patients with adenocarcinoma compared to squamous cell carcinoma (14.7% and 5.3% respectively). Chemotherapy-treated patients experienced thromboembolism more often than patients who did not receive chemotherapy (HR 5.7 95%CI 2.2-14.8). Radiotherapy was also associated with more frequent thromboembolism (HR 5.2 95%CI 2.0-13.2). New lung cancer diagnosis, presence of metastatic disease, second primary malignancy and Charlson Index ≥ 5 were also associated with higher rates of thromboembolism. Importantly, pharmacological thromboprophylaxis (P-TP) was not routinely or systematically prescribed for ambulant lung cancer patients during any treatment phase, at this institution. The majority (83%) of thromboembolic events occurred in the ambulatory care setting. Morbidity and mortality from thromboembolism occurs frequently in lung cancer. Thromboprophylaxis guidelines should be developed for the ambulatory care setting.