In this paper, we propose a general framework to design accumulation scenarios that can be used to anticipate the impact of a massive cyber attack on an insurance portfolio. The aim is also to emphasize the role of countermeasures in stopping the spread of the attack over the portfolio and to quantify the benefits of implementing such strategies of response. Our approach consists of separating the global dynamic of the cyber event (that can be described through compartmental epidemiological models), the effect on the portfolio, and the response strategy. This general framework allows us to obtain Gaussian approximations for the corresponding processes, and sharp confidence bounds for the losses. A detailed simulation study, which mimics the effects of a Wannacry scenario, illustrates the practical implementation of the method.

In a regression model with univariate censored responses, a new estimator of the joint distribution function of the covariates and response is proposed, under the assumption that the response and the censoring variable are independent conditionally to the covariates. This estimator is based on the conditional Kaplan–Meier estimator of Beran ( 1981 Beran , R. ( 1981 ). Nonparametric regression with randomly censored survival data. Technical Report, University of California, Berkeley, California . [Google Scholar] ), and happens to be an extension of the multivariate empirical distribution function used in the uncensored case. We derive asymptotic i.i.d. representations for the integrals with respect to the measure defined by this estimated distribution function. These representations hold even in the case where the covariates are multidimensional under some additional assumption on the censoring. Applications to censored regression and to density estimation are considered.