Yujia Lan

Yujia Lan


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

1Year (2026-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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10 June 2026 in Water
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
ZMZhenzhu Meng
Zhenzhu Meng
FJFaqing Jin
Faqing Jin
YLYujia Lan
Yujia Lan
YZYuhong Zheng
Yuhong Zheng
CZCheng Zeng
Cheng Zeng
JZJinxin Zhang
Jinxin Zhang
Reliable prediction of post-initiation run-out distance of rainfall-induced landslides is essential for hazard assessment, evacuation planning, and disaster-risk mitigation. However, most existing data-driven approaches formulate run-out prediction as a deterministic regression problem and therefore provide limited information on predictive uncertainty, rare long-runout events, and explainable decision support. To address these limitations, this study proposes CQR-EVT-XAI, a trustworthy AI framework that integrates Quantile LightGBM, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR), Extreme Value Theory (EVT), and Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) for uncertainty-aware and explainable landslide run-out risk prediction. Based on 10,158 rainfall-induced landslide samples, physics-informed features are constructed from elevation difference H, source area A, source volume V, and mean slope angle θ. The proposed framework generates calibrated prediction intervals, threshold-based exceedance probabilities, upper-tail risk indicators, and interpretable risk levels. The CQR-LightGBM median model achieves high point-prediction accuracy, with R2 = 0.939, RMSE = 18.03 m, and MAE = 6.55 m. Conformal calibration improves the empirical coverage of the nominal 90% and 95% prediction intervals from 0.813 to 0.903 and from 0.876 to 0.953, respectively. Tail-risk analysis shows that the upper prediction bound L^95 effectively identifies extreme long-runout events, achieving recall values of 0.974 and 0.900 for L > 300 m and L > 500 m, respectively. SHAP analysis reveals that elevation difference H, source volume V, and energy-related derived features dominate both median run-out prediction and upper-tail risk behavior, while slope-related variables mainly influence predictive uncertainty and exceedance-risk levels. These results demonstrate that the proposed CQR-EVT-XAI framework provides a practical workflow for calibrated uncertainty quantification, tail-risk identification, and explainable decision support in rainfall-induced landslide run-out risk assessment.