Nurtugan Azatbekuly

Nurtugan Azatbekuly


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

1Year (2026-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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14 August 2026 in Applied Sciences
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
Beimbet DaribayevBeimbet Daribayev
Beimbet Daribayev
Maxatbek Nurgaliuly SatymbekovMaxatbek Nurgaliuly Satymbekov
Maxatbek Nurgaliuly Satymbekov
ADAltay Dyussupov
Altay Dyussupov
DSDariya Shabdarbayeva
Dariya Shabdarbayeva
NANurtugan Azatbekuly
Nurtugan Azatbekuly
TITimur Imankulov
Timur Imankulov
Descendants of Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site-exposed individuals have a documented multigenerational health burden, yet parental dose-integrated predictive modelling of descendant outcomes remains absent. This study evaluates the feasibility of ICD chapter-level outcome group classification in registry-derived descendant cohorts using machine learning, with both cohorts restricted to outcome-positive individuals. Two cohorts were derived from the State Scientific Automated Medical Registry: a second-generation cohort (n = 7898) and a three-generation pilot cohort (n = 2841). Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM were evaluated via stratified five-fold cross-validation using eight parental dose and demographic predictors; no descendant-level clinical measurements were included. In the second-generation cohort, AUC-ROC reached 0.819 for cardiovascular outcomes, 0.776 for neoplasms, and 0.835 for the composite endpoint. A unified-outcome sensitivity analysis incorporating death-certificate and protocol records increased second-generation positive counts by 22.3–24.7%, while discrimination remained broadly stable. Birth year was the dominant predictor, reflecting biological ageing, ascertainment differences, and exposure-era confounding; dose-only models retained AUC values of 0.619–0.761, indicating that the recorded parental dose variables contained above-chance predictive information within this registry cohort, without establishing a biological, causal, or heritable intergenerational effect. Third-generation AUC values of 0.901–0.918 were stable across the conducted resampling checks but were most plausibly driven by structural birth-year confounding. These results establish a reproducible performance baseline for this nuclear legacy registry setting and identify healthy cohort inclusion, age-standardised ascertainment, and individual biological markers as key prerequisites for advancing this research.