Possible future changes in Baltic Sea acidbase (pH) and oxygen balances were studied using a catchmentsea coupled model system and numerical experiments based on meteorological and hydrological forcing datasets and scenarios. By using objective statistical methods, climate runs for present climate conditions were examined and evaluated using Baltic Sea modelling. The results indicate that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, the seasonal pH cycle will be amplified by increased biological production and mineralization. All examined scenarios indicate future acidification of the whole Baltic Sea that is insensitive to the chosen global climate model. The main factor controlling the direction and magnitude of future pH changes is atmospheric CO2 concentration (i.e. emissions). Climate change and land-derived changes (e.g. nutrient loads) affect acidification mainly by altering the seasonal cycle and deep-water conditions. Apart from decreasing pH, we also project a decreased saturation state of calcium carbonate, decreased respiration index and increasing hypoxic area all factors that will threaten the marine ecosystem. We demonstrate that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel burning are needed to minimise the coming pH decrease and that substantial reductions in nutrient loads are needed to reduce the coming increase in hypoxic and anoxic waters

In this study we examine pools of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in the Baltic Sea, both simulated and reconstructed from observations. We further quantify key fluxes in the C, N, and P cycling. Our calculations include pelagic reservoirs as well as the storage in the active sediment layer, which allows a complete coverage of the overall C, N, and P cycling on a system-scale. A striking property of C versus N and P cycling is that while the external supplies of total N and P (TN and TP) are largely balanced by internal removal processes, the total carbon (TC) supply is mainly compensated by a net export out of the system. In other words, external inputs of TN and TP are, in contrast to TC, rather efficiently filtered within the Baltic Sea. Further, there is a net export of TN and TP out of the system, but a net import of dissolved inorganic N and P (DIN and DIP). There is on the contrary a net export of both the organic and inorganic fractions of TC. While the pelagic pools of TC and TP are dominated by inorganic compounds, TN largely consists of organic N because allochthonous organic N is poorly degradable. There are however large basin-wise differences in C, N, and P elemental ratios as well as in inorganic versus organic fractions. These differences reflect both the differing ratios in external loads and differing oxygen conditions determining the redox-dependent fluxes of DIN and DIP.

In this study we first present updated riverine total alkalinity (TA) loads to the various Baltic Sea sub‐basins, based on monthly measurements in 82 of the major rivers that represent 85% of the total runoff. Simulations in the coupled physical‐biogeochemical BALTSEM (BAltic sea Long‐Term large Scale Eutrophication Model) model show that these river loads together with North Sea water inflows are not sufficient to reproduce observed TA concentrations in the system, demonstrating the large influence from internal sources. Budget calculations indicate that the required internal TA generation must be similar to river loads in magnitude. The nonriverine source in the system amounts to about 2.4 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ on average. We argue here that the majority of this source is related to denitrification together with unresolved sediment processes such as burial of reduced sulfur and/or silicate weathering. This hypothesis is supported by studies on sediment processes on a global scale and also by data from sediment cores in the Baltic Sea. In a model simulation with all internal TA sources and sinks switched on, the net absorption of atmospheric CO₂ increased by 0.78 mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹ compared to a simulation where TA was treated as a passive tracer. Our results clearly illustrate how pelagic TA sources together with anaerobic mineralization in coastal sediments generate a significant carbon sink along the aquatic continuum, mitigating CO₂ evasions from coastal and estuarine systems.