Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) simulations for both summer and winter phases. Using 10 different feature trackers applied to simulations and satellite observations, we assess MCS frequency, precipitation, and other key characteristics. Substantial differences (a factor of 2–3) arise among trackers in observed MCS frequency and their precipitation contribution, but model‐observation differences in MCS statistics are more consistent across trackers. DYAMOND models are generally skillful in simulating tropical mean MCS frequency, with multi‐model mean biases ranging from −2%–8% over land and −8%–8% over ocean (summer vs. winter). However, most DYAMOND models underestimate MCS precipitation amount (23%) and their contribution to total precipitation (17%). Biases in precipitation contributions are generally smaller over land (13%) than over ocean (21%), with moderate inter‐model variability. While models better simulate MCS diurnal cycles and cloud shield characteristics, they overestimate MCS precipitation intensity and underestimate stratiform rain contributions (up to a factor of 2), particularly over land, albeit observational uncertainties exist. Additionally, models exhibit a wide range of precipitable water in the tropics compared to reanalysis and satellite observations, with many models showing exaggerated sensitivity of MCS precipitation intensity to precipitable water. The MCS metrics developed here provide process‐oriented diagnostics to guide future model development.
9 March 2021 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
According to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite precipitation composites, a broad maritime area over the far eastern tropical Pacific and western Colombia houses one of the rainiest spots on Earth. This study aims to present a suite of mechanistic drivers that help create such a world‐record‐breaking rainy spot. Previous research has shown that this oceanic and nearly continental precipitation maximum has a strong early morning precipitation peak and a high density of mesoscale convective systems. We examined new and unique observational evidence highlighting the role of both dynamical and thermodynamical drivers in the activation and duration of organized convection. Results showed the existence of a rather large combination of mechanisms, including: (1) dynamics of the Choco (ChocoJet) and Caribbean Low‐Level Jets along their confluence zone, including the Panama semi‐permanent low; (2) ChocoJet deceleration offshore is favored by land breeze, enhancing the nighttime and early morning low‐level convergence; (3) a wind sheared environment that conforms to the long‐lived squall line theory; (4) action of mid‐level gravity waves, which further support the strong diurnal variability; and (5) mesoscale convective vortices related to subsidence in the stratiform region and top‐heavy mass flux profiles. This study emphasizes the multiscale circulation and thermodynamics mechanisms associated with the formation of one of the rainiest spots on Earth and showcases new observations gathered during the Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection field campaign (OTREC; August–September, 2019) that support the outlined mechanisms.
17 June 2019 in International Journal of Climatology
This study presents the first global‐scale comprehensive climatology of marine fog and is based on ICOADS ship present weather observations for the period 1950–2007. In general, the median marine fog occurrence away from the polar oceans is low (0.2%). Substantially greater marine fog occurrences are limited to four regions, not including the polar region. Fog occurrence maxima along the western side of the sub‐polar ocean gyre occur during the warm season and over the shelf, which includes one centred over the Northwest Pacific Kuril Islands (60%) and one over the Northwest Atlantic Grand Banks (45%), while a third lies over the Argentinean shelf break. Fog maxima over seven marginal seas occur over the Okhotsk Sea, Sea of Japan, Yellow Sea, South China Sea, Nova Scotia, North Sea, and Baltic Sea. Five wind‐driven coastal upwelling zone maxima comprise the California‐Oregon, Namibia‐South Africa, Peru, Morocco and Arabian regions. Maximum upwelling fog occurrence during the warm season was found to be inversely proportional to the minimum sea surface temperature (SST). Most fog maximum occurrence locations lie over SST minima in shallow water during the warm season and are capped by a stable lower atmosphere. Positive correlations (up to 0.79) were found between 5‐year moving averages of fog in the Kuril Islands and the North Pacific Oscillation. Five‐year moving averages of fog in the Grand Banks were positively and significantly correlated (up to 0.56), with the North Atlantic Oscillation represented by the sea level pressure difference between Gibraltar and Reykjavik. In contrast, 5‐year moving averages of fog in the Grand Banks and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index were negatively and significantly correlated (up to −0.75).
21 November 2018 in International Journal of Climatology
The North American monsoon (NAM) is an annual climate system phenomenon that develops over the Sierra Madre Occidental in western Mexico and spreads northwards into the southwest United States from June through September bringing large quantities of rainfall and lightning, which can vary greatly on intra‐ and inter‐annual timescales. The timing of the NAM onset can lengthen or shorten the wildfire season in the southwest United States. Here we determine NAM onset thresholds and subsequent dates for the Southwest Area (SWA; Arizona, New Mexico, west Texas, and Oklahoma panhandle) and each SWA Predictive Services Area (PSA) April through September from 1995–2013. Various wildfire activity thresholds were defined to capture days or events associated with increased wildfire activity that are considered “busy” by wildland fire management in the context of an impact on firefighting resources. These defined thresholds allow for a unique examination of the relationship between the NAM and wildfire. Self‐organizing maps (SOMs), utilizing 500‐hPa geopotential heights and precipitable water, were implemented to identify atmospheric patterns contributing to the NAM onset and “busy” days for the SWA and each PSA. Map types from the SOMs analysis showed the transition to, during, and from the NAM. Northwards and eastwards displacements of the subtropical ridge over the SWA were associated with NAM onset. Restructuring of the subtropical ridge in time (i.e., amplification or breakdown) as inferred from map types over the SWA was directly associated with increased wildfire activity. By identifying atmospheric patterns pertinent to busy days of wildfire activity and a wildfire‐based perspective of the NAM in the SWA, fire weather forecasters can proactively identify potential periods that may be particularly impactful on wildfire suppression resources.