Objective: This randomized phase II/III study evaluated the superiority of neoadjuvant therapy with gemcitabine plus S-1 over upfront surgery for patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Background: PDAC is a leading cause of cancer mortality that urgently requires better treatment. Methods: Patients with resectable PDAC (without arterial abutment) were randomly assigned to upfront surgery or neoadjuvant chemotherapy with gemcitabine (1000 mg/m ² days 1 and 8) and S-1 (40–60 mg orally twice daily, days 1–14 every 3 wk for 2 cycles). Phase II and III primary endpoints were resection rate and overall survival, respectively. UMIN Clinical Trials Registry number: UMIN000009634. Results: Patients (n=364) were enrolled and randomly allocated to upfront surgery (UPS; n=182) or neoadjuvant gemcitabine plus S-1 (NAC-GS; n=182). Patient demographics and tumor characteristics were balanced between groups. Median overall survival in the UPS and NAC-GS groups was 26.6 (95% CI: 21.5, 31.5) and 37.0 (95% CI: 28.6, 43.3) months, respectively. The hazard ratio for mortality in the NAC-GS group compared with the UPS group was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.56, 0.95; P =0.018). Median relapse-free survival in the UPS and NAC-GS groups was 11.3 (95% CI: 9.41, 13.5) and 14.3 (95% CI: 11.7, 17.0) months, respectively. The hazard ratio for relapse in the NAC-GS group compared with the UPS group was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.98; P =0.030). Conclusions: The Prep-02/JSAP05 trial results showed that neoadjuvant chemotherapy with gemcitabine plus S-1 significantly extends survival compared with upfront surgery in patients with resectable PDAC.

Despite the frequent use of self-controlled methods in pharmacoepidemiological studies, the factors that may bias the estimates from these methods have not been adequately compared in real-world settings. Here, we comparatively examined the impact of a time-varying confounder and its interactions with time-invariant confounders, time trends in exposures and events, restrictions, and misspecification of risk period durations on the estimators from three self-controlled methods. This study analyzed self-controlled case series (SCCS), case-crossover (CCO) design, and sequence symmetry analysis (SSA) using simulated and actual electronic medical records datasets. We evaluated the performance of the three self-controlled methods in simulated cohorts for the following scenarios: 1) time-invariant confounding with interactions between the confounders, 2) time-invariant and time-varying confounding without interactions, 3) time-invariant and time-varying confounding with interactions among the confounders, 4) time trends in exposures and events, 5) restricted follow-up time based on event occurrence, and 6) patient restriction based on event history. The sensitivity of the estimators to misspecified risk period durations was also evaluated. As a case study, we applied these methods to evaluate the risk of macrolides on liver injury using electronic medical records. In the simulation analysis, time-varying confounding produced bias in the SCCS and CCO design estimates, which aggravated in the presence of interactions between the time-invariant and time-varying confounders. The SCCS estimates were biased by time trends in both exposures and events. Erroneously short risk periods introduced bias to the CCO design estimate, whereas erroneously long risk periods introduced bias to the estimates of all three methods. Restricting the follow-up time led to severe bias in the SSA estimates. The SCCS estimates were sensitive to patient restriction. The case study showed that although macrolide use was significantly associated with increased liver injury occurrence in all methods, the value of the estimates varied. The estimations of the three self-controlled methods depended on various underlying assumptions, and the violation of these assumptions may cause non-negligible bias in the resulting estimates. Pharmacoepidemiologists should select the appropriate self-controlled method based on how well the relevant key assumptions are satisfied with respect to the available data.

BACKGROUND: In recent years a decline in the number of new AIDS cases has been observed in several industrialized countries. It is important to know whether these recent trends observed in North America and Europe are also occurring in Japan. METHODS: The number of people reported with HIV and AIDS by nationality, route of infection, and sex was calculated based on the HIV/AIDS surveillance data available in Japan through December 1997. The effect of reporting delay, which was defined as those HIV and AIDS cases reported in the calendar year following diagnosis, on the trends was examined. The coverage rate in reporting HIV cases was estimated as the ratio of the reported AIDS cases with prior report as an HIV-positive to the total number of reported AIDS cases. RESULTS: The cumulative number of reported cases of HIV among Japanese and non-Japanese residents of Japan up to the end of 1997 were 1,300 and 1,190, respectively. The cumulative number of reported cases of AIDS among Japanese and non-Japanese up to the end of 1997 were 758 and 298, respectively. The number of reported cases of HIV among Japanese was found to be still increasing, with the major contribution from male cases. The increasing trend in the number of reported AIDS cases among Japanese began to slow in 1996 and 1997. The number of reported cases of HIV among non-Japanese residents of Japan peaked in 1992, and has decreased since then, and remained constant after 1994. In contrast, the number of reported AIDS cases among these non-Japanese tended to increase gradually. There was a slight reporting delay for people with HIV and AIDS. The estimated coverage rate in reporting HIV cases tended to decrease in 1996 and 1997 (1/7.2, 1/10.2, respectively). We point out several reasons for this recent decline and suggest the possibility of an ostensible decline in the estimates. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that the number of people with HIV among Japanese has continued to increase, and that the increase in the number of AIDS cases among Japanese is now slowing.

In some clinical situations, patients experience repeated events of the same type. Among these, cancer recurrences can result in terminal events such as death. Therefore, here we dynamically predicted the risks of repeated and terminal events given longitudinal histories observed before prediction time using dynamic pseudo-observations (DPOs) in a landmarking model. The proposed DPOs were calculated using Aalen–Johansen estimator for the event processes described in the multi-state model. Furthermore, in the absence of a terminal event, a more convenient approach without matrix operation was described using the ordering of repeated events. Finally, generalized estimating equations were used to calculate probabilities of repeated and terminal events, which were treated as multinomial outcomes. Simulation studies were conducted to assess bias and investigate the efficiency of the proposed DPOs in a finite sample. Little bias was detected in DPOs even under relatively heavy censoring, and the method was applied to data from patients with colorectal liver metastases. The proposed method enabled intuitive interpretations of terminal event settings.