Geothermal energy has been recognized as an important clean renewable energy. Accurate assessment of geothermal resources is an essential foundation for their development and utilization. The North Jiangsu Basin (NJB), located in the Lower Yangtze Craton, is shaped like a wedge block of an ancient plate boundary and large-scale carbonate thermal reservoirs are developed in the deep NJB. Moreover, the NJB exhibits a high heat flow background because of its extensive extension since the Late Mesozoic. In this study, we used the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the geothermal resources of the main reservoir shallower than 10 km in the NJB. Compared with the volumetric method, the Monte Carlo method takes into account the variation mode and uncertainties of the input parameters. The simulation results show that the geothermal resources of the sandstone thermal reservoir in the shallow NJB are very rich, with capacities of (6.6–12) × 10²⁰ J (mean 8.6 × 10²⁰ J), (5.1–16) × 10²⁰ J (mean 9.1 × 10²⁰ J), and (3.2–11) × 10²⁰ J (mean 6.6 × 10²⁰ J) for the Yancheng, Sanduo and Dai’nan sandstone reservoir, respectively. In addition, the capacity of the geothermal resource of the carbonate thermal reservoir in the deep NJB is far greater than the former, reaching (9.9–15) × 10²¹ J (mean 12 × 10²¹ J). The results indicate capacities of a range value of (1.2–1.7) × 10²¹ J (mean 1.4 × 10²² J) for the whole NJB (<10 km).

The thermal structure of the lithosphere is key to understanding its thickness, properties, evolution, and geothermal resources. Cratons are known for their low heat flow and deep lithospheric roots. However, present-day cratons in East China have geothermal characteristics that are highly complex, with variable heat flow values, diverging from the typical thermal state of cratons. In this study, we conducted a detailed analysis of the geothermal geological background of the cratons in East China, summarizing the thermal state and tectono-thermal processes of different tectonic units, calculating the temperature at various depths, and discussing differences in temperature and thermal reservoirs at different depths. The observed lithospheric thermal thickness within the North Jiangsu Basin and the Bohai Bay Basin is notably reduced in comparison to that of the Jianghan Basin and the Southern North China Basin. The phenomenon of craton destruction during the Late Mesozoic emerges as a pivotal determinant, enhancing the geothermal resource prospects of both the Bohai Bay Basin and the North Jiangsu Basin. Our findings contribute significantly to the augmentation of theoretical frameworks concerning the origins of heat sources in global cratons. Furthermore, they offer invaluable insights for the methodical exploration, evaluation, advancement, and exploitation of geothermal resources.

Numerical simulation is an effective method for studying groundwater flow and heat transfer in geothermal energy projects. Describing the characteristics of thermal plumes is important for operational planning of geothermal energy projects. In contrast to shallow geothermal system, the injection temperature differs significantly from the natural temperature of thermal reservoir in high-temperature geothermal projects, which leads to changes in fluid density and dynamics viscosity. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of temperature-induced changes in density and dynamics viscosity on simulation. The Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) in North Jiangsu Basin, China, is taken as a case project. Based on the theory of groundwater flow and heat transfer in porous-fracture dual medium, a numerical model of EGS is established to predict the thermal performance. The density and the dynamics viscosity in the model were set as either constant or temperature-dependent to simulate the hydraulic head and temperature of the production well. The influence of temperature-induced changes in density and dynamics viscosity on the simulation was quantitatively studied. The results show that temperature-induced change in dynamics viscosity has a greater impact on the simulation, with deviation in hydraulic head exceeding 20% if the dynamics viscosity is assumed constant. The temperature-dependent variation in viscosity should be incorporated into the simulation process to improve the accuracy of the calculation. In practice, EGS projects should maximize the temperature differential between produced and injected water. The increased viscosity of lower-temperature circulation water extends its residence time within the system, thereby facilitating more thorough heat extraction. This research enhances our understanding of the role of the temperature in groundwater flow and heat transfer within EGS.