Molecular mechanisms driving disease course and response to therapy in ulcerative colitis (UC) are not well understood. Here, we use RNAseq to define pre-treatment rectal gene expression, and fecal microbiota profiles, in 206 pediatric UC patients receiving standardised therapy. We validate our key findings in adult and paediatric UC cohorts of 408 participants. We observe a marked suppression of mitochondrial genes and function across cohorts in active UC, and that increasing disease severity is notable for enrichment of adenoma/adenocarcinoma and innate immune genes. A subset of severity genes improves prediction of corticosteroid-induced remission in the discovery cohort; this gene signature is also associated with response to anti-TNFα and anti-α₄β₇ integrin in adults. The severity and therapeutic response gene signatures were in turn associated with shifts in microbes previously implicated in mucosal homeostasis. Our data provide insights into UC pathogenesis, and may prioritise future therapies for nonresponders to current approaches.

Objective Although anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha (anti-TNFα) therapies represent a major breakthrough in IBD therapy, their cost–benefit ratio is hampered by an overall 30% non-response rate, adverse side effects and high costs. Thus, finding predictive biomarkers of non-response prior to commencing anti-TNFα therapy is of high value. Design We analysed publicly available whole-genome expression profiles of colon biopsies obtained from multiple cohorts of patients with IBD using a combined computational deconvolution—meta-analysis paradigm which allows to estimate immune cell contribution to the measured expression and capture differential regulatory programmes otherwise masked due to variation in cellular composition. Insights from this in silico approach were experimentally validated in biopsies and blood samples of three independent test cohorts. Results We found the proportion of plasma cells as a robust pretreatment biomarker of non-response to therapy, which we validated in two independent cohorts of immune-stained colon biopsies, where a plasma cellular score from inflamed biopsies was predictive of non-response with an area under the curve (AUC) of 82%. Meta-analysis of the cell proportion-adjusted gene expression data suggested that an increase in inflammatory macrophages in anti-TNFα non-responding individuals is associated with the upregulation of the triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (TREM-1) and chemokine receptor type 2 (CCR2)-chemokine ligand 7 (CCL7) –axes. Blood gene expression analysis of an independent cohort, identified TREM-1 downregulation in non-responders at baseline, which was predictive of response with an AUC of 94%. Conclusions Our study proposes two clinically feasible assays, one in biopsy and one in blood, for predicting non-response to anti-TNFα therapy prior to initiation of treatment. Moreover, it suggests that mechanism-driven novel drugs for non-responders should be developed.