In the effort to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to food, health, water, and climate, an increase in pressure on land is highly likely. To avoid further land degradation and promote land restoration, multifunctional use of land is needed within the boundaries of the soil-water system. In addition, awareness-raising, a change in stakeholders’ attitudes, and a change in economics are essential. The attainment of a balance between the economy, society, and the biosphere calls for a holistic approach. In this paper, we introduce four concepts that we consider to be conducive to realizing LDN in a more integrated way: systems thinking, connectivity, nature-based solutions, and regenerative economics. We illustrate the application of these concepts through three examples in agricultural settings. Systems thinking lies at the base of the three others, stressing feedback loops but also delayed responses. Their simultaneous use will result in more robust solutions, which are sustainable from an environmental, societal, and economic point of view. Solutions also need to take into account the level of scale (global, national, regional, local), stakeholders’ interests and culture, and the availability and boundaries of financial and natural capital. Furthermore, sustainable solutions need to embed short-term management in long-term landscape planning. In conclusion, paradigm shifts are needed. First, it is necessary to move from excessive exploitation in combination with environmental protection, to sustainable use and management of the soil-water system. To accomplish this, new business models in robust economic systems are needed based on environmental systems thinking; an approach that integrates environmental, social, and economic interests. Second, it is necessary to shift from a “system follows function” approach towards a “function follows system” one. Only by making the transition towards integrated solutions based on a socio-economical-ecological systems analysis, using concepts such as nature-based solutions, do we stand a chance to achieve Land Degradation Neutrality by 2030. To make these paradigm shifts, awareness-raising in relation to a different type of governance, economy and landscape and land-use planning and management is needed.

Biodiversity in rangelands is decreasing, due to intense utilization for livestock production and conversion of rangeland into cropland; yet the outlook of rangeland biodiversity has not been considered in view of future global demand for food. Here we assess the impact of future livestock production on the global rangelands area and their biodiversity. First we formalized existing knowledge about livestock grazing impacts on biodiversity, expressed in mean species abundance (MSA) of the original rangeland native species assemblages, through metaanalysis of peer-reviewed literature. MSA values, ranging from 1 in natural rangelands to 0.3 in man-made grasslands, were entered in the IMAGE-GLOBIO model. This model was used to assess the impact of change in food demand and livestock production on future rangeland biodiversity. The model revealed remarkable regional variation in impact on rangeland area and MSA between two agricultural production scenarios. The area of used rangelands slightly increases globally between 2000 and 2050 in the baseline scenario and reduces under a scenario of enhanced uptake of resource-efficient production technologies increasing production [high levels of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology (high-AKST)], particularly in Africa. Both scenarios suggest a global decrease in MSA for rangelands until 2050. The contribution of livestock grazing to MSA loss is, however, expected to diminish after 2030, in particular in Africa under the high-AKST scenario. Policies fostering agricultural intensification can reduce the overall pressure on rangeland biodiversity, but additional measures, addressing factors such as climate change and infrastructural development, are necessary to totally halt biodiversity loss.

1 The relationships between soil development, vertical vegetation zonation, vegetation succession and herbivory by Brent geese, Branta bernicla, were studied in a coastal salt marsh. We were able to analyse up to 100 years of salt marsh development by comparing sites where vegetation succession had progressed for-various periods of time. These data were related to a continuous daily record of high water levels measured since 1824. 2 Most elevational variation in edaphic conditions (and therefore vertical vegetation zonation) could be attributed to variation in height of the sandy subsoil, as rapid dune formation occurs on the beaches early in succession. In the intermediate part of this elevational gradient, the maximum annual increase of 1.2 mm of silt corresponded to an annual increase of 5.6 g N m(-2) in the topsoil (0-50 cm). The average sea level rise in this area over the last 170 years was 0.63 mm year(-1). A sedimentation model suggests that this has had strong effects on sedimentation and the annual inundation frequency in the mid-part of the elevational gradient, thus affecting vegetation zonation on the salt marsh. For the major part of the investigated transects, sea level rise has probably speeded up succession due to an increased rate of sedimentation. 3 The occurrence and dominance of all plant species were recorded in 3927 plots, and and for the 11 most common species response surfaces were calculated for their dependence on elevation and transect age. Most plant species were clearly separated along these axes. Most halophytic species, which were preferred by the geese, occurred early in succession and low on the gradient, where we observed the highest densities ge quality of Festuca I rubra increased towards the lower salt marsh. Other preferred forage species (Puccinellia maritima and Plantago maritima) were gradually displaced during succession by the tall grass Elymus athericus, especially in the mid-and upper salt marsh. Few geese grazed in areas where Elymus was dominant. 4 Herbivores first increased in numbers but then declined along a gradient of primary productivity. We propose that declining forage quality (due to changing vegetation composition during succession) is a better explanation for this pattern than the classic explanation of predator control of herbivores at high levels of primary productivity. This quality threshold hypothesis, as an alternative explanation of the exploitation ecosystem hypothesis, is expected to hold especially where smaller (quality-sensitive) herbivores such as geese are present. 5 Grazing by cattle in a 200-year-old part of the salt marsh led to the disappearance of Elymus athericus, to establishment of early successional halophytes and a return of Brent geese. Crazing by a larger herbivore therefore facilitated conditions for smaller herbivores by preventing the dominance of plant species that were good light competitors, and thus improved forage quality. Populations of these small herbivores could then become regulated by predators, although none was present at our site. [KEYWORDS: facilitation; herbivory; nitrogen accumulation; salt marsh; sea level rise; succession Lesser snow geese; plant-communities; primary productivity; zonation; habitats; bay; exploitation; accumulation;competition; halophytes

The spatial distribution of crops and farming systems in Africa is determined by the duration of the period during which crop and livestock water requirements are met. The length of growing period (LGP) is normally assessed from weather station data—scarce in large parts of Africa—or coarse-resolution rainfall estimates derived from weather satellites. In this study, we analyzed LGP and its variability based on the 1981–2011 GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. We applied a variable threshold method in combination with a searching algorithm to determine start- and end-of-season. We obtained reliable LGP estimates for arid, semi-arid and sub-humid climates that are consistent in space and time. This approach effectively mapped bimodality for clearly separated wet seasons in the Horn of Africa. Due to cloud contamination, the identified bimodality along the Guinea coast was judged to be less certain. High LGP variability is dominant in arid and semi-arid areas, and is indicative of crop failure risk. Significant negative trends in LGP were found for the northern part of the Sahel, for parts of Tanzania and northern Mozambique, and for the short rains of eastern Kenya. Positive trends occurred across western Africa, in southern Africa, and in eastern Kenya for the long rains. Our LGP analysis provides useful information for the mapping of farming systems, and to study the effects of climate variability and other drivers of change on vegetation and crop suitability.

Global insurance markets are vast and diverse, and may offer many opportunities for remote sensing. To date, however, few operational applications of remote sensing for insurance exist. Papers claiming potential application of remote sensing typically stress the technical possibilities, without considering its contribution to customer value for the insured or to the profitability of the insurance industry. Based on a systematic search of available literature, this review investigates the potential and actual support of remote sensing to the insurance industry. The review reveals that research on remote sensing in classical claim-based insurance described in the literature revolve around crop damage and flood and fire risk assessment. Surprisingly, the use of remote sensing in claim-based insurance appears to be instigated by government rather than the insurance industry. In contrast, insurance companies are offering various index insurance products that are based on remote sensing. For example, remotely sensed index insurance for rangelands and livestock are operational, while various applications in crop index insurance are being considered or under development. The paper discusses these differences and concludes that there is particular scope for application of remote sensing by the insurance industry in index insurance because (1) indices can be constructed that correlate well with what is insured; (2) these indices can be delivered at low cost; and (3) it opens up new markets that are not served by claim-based insurance. The paper finally suggests that limited adoption of remote sensing in insurance results from a lack of mutual understanding and calls for greater cooperation between the insurance industry and the remote sensing community.