Background: Developing effective strategies for signaling the pre-disease state of complex diseases, a state with high susceptibility before the disease onset or deterioration, is urgently needed because such state usually followed by a catastrophic transition into a worse stage of disease. However, it is a challenging task to identify such pre-disease state or tipping point in clinics, where only one single sample is available and thus results in the failure of most statistic approaches. Methods: In this study, we presented a single-sample-based computational method to detect the early-warning signal of critical transition during the progression of complex diseases. Specifically, given a set of reference samples which were regarded as background, a novel index called single-sample Kullback–Leibler divergence (sKLD), was proposed to explore and quantify the disturbance on the background caused by a case sample. The pre-disease state is then signaled by the significant change of sKLD. Results: The novel algorithm was developed and applied to both numerical simulation and real datasets, including lung squamous cell carcinoma, lung adenocarcinoma, stomach adenocarcinoma, thyroid carcinoma, colon adenocarcinoma, and acute lung injury. The successful identification of pre-disease states and the corresponding dynamical network biomarkers for all six datasets validated the effectiveness and accuracy of our method. Conclusions: The proposed method effectively explores and quantifies the disturbance on the background caused by a case sample, and thus characterizes the criticality of a biological system. Our method not only identifies the critical state or tipping point at a single sample level, but also provides the sKLD-signaling markers for further practical application. It is therefore of great potential in personalized pre-disease diagnosis.

We develop an auto-reservoir computing framework, Auto-Reservoir Neural Network (ARNN), to efficiently and accurately make multi-step-ahead predictions based on a short-term high-dimensional time series. Different from traditional reservoir computing whose reservoir is an external dynamical system irrelevant to the target system, ARNN directly transforms the observed high-dimensional dynamics as its reservoir, which maps the high-dimensional/spatial data to the future temporal values of a target variable based on our spatiotemporal information (STI) transformation. Thus, the multi-step prediction of the target variable is achieved in an accurate and computationally efficient manner. ARNN is successfully applied to both representative models and real-world datasets, all of which show satisfactory performance in the multi-step-ahead prediction, even when the data are perturbed by noise and when the system is time-varying. Actually, such ARNN transformation equivalently expands the sample size and thus has great potential in practical applications in artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Identifying early-warning signals of a critical transition for a complex system is difficult, especially when the target system is constantly perturbed by big noise, which makes the traditional methods fail due to the strong fluctuations of the observed data. In this work, we show that the critical transition is not traditional state-transition but probability distribution-transition when the noise is not sufficiently small, which, however, is a ubiquitous case in real systems. We present a model-free computational method to detect the warning signals before such transitions. The key idea behind is a strategy: “making big noise smaller” by a distribution-embedding scheme, which transforms the data from the observed state-variables with big noise to their distribution-variables with small noise and thus makes the traditional criteria effective because of the significantly reduced fluctuations. Specifically, increasing the dimension of the observed data by moment expansion that changes the system from state-dynamics to probability distribution-dynamics, we derive new data in a higher-dimensional space but with much smaller noise. Then, we develop a criterion based on the dynamical network marker (DNM) to signal the impending critical transition using the transformed higher-dimensional data. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in biological, ecological and financial systems.

Motivation: The time evolution or dynamic change of many biological systems during disease progression is not always smooth but occasionally abrupt, that is, there is a tipping point during such a process at which the system state shifts from the normal state to a disease state. It is challenging to predict such disease state with the measured omics data, in particular when only a single sample is available. Results: In this study, we developed a novel approach, i.e. single-sample landscape entropy (SLE) method, to identify the tipping point during disease progression with only one sample data. Specifically, by evaluating the disorder of a network projected from a single-sample data, SLE effectively characterizes the criticality of this single sample network in terms of network entropy, thereby capturing not only the signals of the impending transition but also its leading network, i.e. dynamic network biomarkers. Using this method, we can characterize sample-specific state during disease progression and thus achieve the disease prediction of each individual by only one sample. Our method was validated by successfully identifying the tipping points just before the serious disease symptoms from four real datasets of individuals or subjects, including influenza virus infection, lung cancer metastasis, prostate cancer and acute lung injury. Availability and implementation: https://github.com/rabbitpei/SLE. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Acquired drug resistance is the major reason why patients fail to respond to cancer therapies. It is a challenging task to determine the tipping point of endocrine resistance and detect the associated molecules. Derived from new systems biology theory, the dynamic network biomarker (DNB) method is designed to quantitatively identify the tipping point of a drastic system transition and can theoretically identify DNB genes that play key roles in acquiring drug resistance. We analyzed time-course mRNA sequence data generated from the tamoxifen-treated estrogen receptor (ER)-positive MCF-7 cell line, and identified the tipping point of endocrine resistance with its leading molecules. The results show that there is interplay between gene mutations and DNB genes, in which the accumulated mutations eventually affect the DNB genes that subsequently cause the change of transcriptional landscape, enabling full-blown drug resistance. Survival analyses based on clinical datasets validated that the DNB genes were associated with the poor survival of breast cancer patients. The results provided the detection for the pre-resistance state or early signs of endocrine resistance. Our predictive method may greatly benefit the scheduling of treatments for complex diseases in which patients are exposed to considerably different drugs and may become drug resistant.

Motivation: Identifying the critical state or pre-transition state just before the occurrence of a phase transition is a challenging task, because the state of the system may show little apparent change before this critical transition during the gradual parameter variations. Such dynamics of phase transition is generally composed of three stages, i.e. before-transition state, pre-transition state and after-transition state, which can be considered as three different Markov processes. Results: By exploring the rich dynamical information provided by high-throughput data, we present a novel computational method, i.e. hidden Markov model (HMM) based approach, to detect the switching point of the two Markov processes from the before-transition state (a stationary Markov process) to the pre-transition state (a time-varying Markov process), thereby identifying the pre-transition state or early-warning signals of the phase transition. To validate the effectiveness, we apply this method to detect the signals of the imminent phase transitions of complex systems based on the simulated datasets, and further identify the pre-transition states as well as their critical modules for three real datasets, i.e. the acute lung injury triggered by phosgene inhalation, MCF-7 human breast cancer caused by heregulin and HCV-induced dysplasia and hepatocellular carcinoma. Both functional and pathway enrichment analyses validate the computational results. Availability and implementation: The source code and some supporting files are available at https://github.com/rabbitpei/HMM_based-method. Contacts:lnchen@sibs.ac.cn or liyj@scut.edu.cn Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.